Trading the SPX

[Atilla]

The futures indicate that a first hour spike to 1465-1470 is possible. I also see a lot of activity in pre open SPY trading.

This may be a good opportunity to close our longs..
Andre

Interesting dip to 1458 but seems to have stalled. I'll have to leg it 1462 is breached.

I think the market doesn't have conviction one way or another. FX also in a narrow range. I think people are watching the price of oil and that's all they are doing. Be good if gold cools down so I can get my hands on some...

Top it off miserable weather here. I think I'll go for a long walk and take natures shower.

 

[Atilla]

If history repeats it self I'm expecting another drop as in the last couple of days to 1455 regions before pickup.

Last two have been around 3:00 - 3:30 so based on averages I'd guess 3:15 GMT.

So I'll be shorting S&P for starters.

Well timing and magnitude was a little off. But now I suspect comes the turn around. Long I go.
1453.

Bit of fresh air, wind and rain on your head works wonders.

 

[Atilla]

Well timing and magnitude was a little off. But now I suspect comes the turn around. Long I go.
1453.

Bit of fresh air, wind and rain on your head works wonders.

Well with oil where it is I suppose that blows inflationary stats coming down theory out of the window for now. Hence, I think with interest rate rises hanging over the market, the way is down.

I'm closing my positions at 1454.7 as the bounce hasn't materialised and I can't see it in this days trading.

 

[ajaskey]

Ok so you are a pure TA.

Actually, I'm 50% TA and 50% FA. The FA "newz" that is reported by the media is for amateurs or day traders. The big money collects their own data and knows whats up weeks/months before the gov't/media provides the story. The media/gov't often provides faulty information that is revised in subsequent reports. The big money will use the media to trade based on the quality and timing of the newz, so it does provide good ops for skilled day traders...

 

[Atilla]

In the last three days the SPX500 has consistently dropped between 14:00 - 16:00 hours.

I was surprised how well history repeated it self give or take 60 min.

I'll be shorting the SPX again soon. On the 10min charts the BB are in a tight range and any brakeout move between 56.5 and 54.5 I'll be long or short but I'm expecting a downward move.

Oil being what it is with inflationary pressures interest rates outlook is deteriating for the markets. Considering it's Friday, coupled with next week being host to the 26th Feb I expect and hope it will be a teddy bears picnic.

 

[Bez]

In the last three days the SPX500 has consistently dropped between 14:00 - 16:00 hours. I was surprised how well history repeated it self give or take 60 min.

Put that over a 4 day cycle and your seeing the intraday delta

 

[Atilla]

Put that over a 4 day cycle and your seeing the intraday delta

Well I'm delighted to say the SPX is pointing down out of it's BB range. I have it going down to about 1451 before some bounce.

Hi Bez, are you refering to the The Delta Phenomenon by Wells Wilder? I supposed it must be worth a good read as it costs a good fist of pips.

 

[Bez]

Yep its based on Jim Sloman orignal idea of the Delta Phenomenon.

Wilders book has to be one of the worst books there is just by the way Wilder writes... The Delta theroy is sound but the stuff in Wilders book about standard deviation misses the whole point delta and how the points relate. Oh and one last knock, the books solutions are incorrect

 

[Bez]

The SPX will go lower then the 1449.28 delta swing low if the higher frames are in.. (odds favour )....

 

[Atilla]

Yep its based on Jim Sloman orignal idea of the Delta Phenomenon.

Wilders book has to be one of the worst books there is just by the way Wilder writes... The Delta theroy is sound but the stuff in Wilders book about standard deviation misses the whole point delta and how the points relate. Oh and one last knock, the books solutions are incorrect

Thank you Bez.

Just closed my short at 1450.8. Not bad 45 pips in the hour.

 

[Bez]

The measured move gives 1445 (spx) area as a big aiming point....

 

[Atilla]

The SPX will go lower then the 1449.28 delta swing low if the higher frames are in.. (odds favour )....

Just saw your new post. Yes you were right. It touched 1449 and is now going lower. However, I had 51 for my short target and thought better take it and leave it at that. On the daily charts it looks like a sell too. I'll have to take a more careful look over the weekend.

Regards,

 

[Bez]

The old saying you never go broke by booking a profit

Nicely traded

 

[krock]

"SHORT TERM TRADING LIVE with Oscar"

FYI

 

[Bez]

Bit of sunday night fun

On the 60min frame I would like a mark down monday morning maybe till around 17:00 (GMT) then up till late Tuesday afternoon, before we again head south till friday..

 

[Atilla]

Bit of sunday night fun

On the 60min frame I would like a mark down monday morning maybe till around 17:00 (GMT) then up till late Tuesday afternoon, before we again head south till friday..

On my hourly time frame I too have it heading down south. In fact it's braking out of it's last weeks tight BB formation supported by my MAverages. Short term oscillators showing some upward move but unless my MAs crossover with price I pay them less attention for now.

I can't call the timing as yet really would like to see 60min position around 12:00-14:00 hours but I can see if we have another drop below 1450 then I'd guess the fall will be good to 1444 regions before some bounce to 1448. I'm going to guess the bounce is likely to be a lower high tomorrow.

On the daily charts I'm seeing support around 1450 still and really would like to see my MAs crossover for confirmation of a major downward move.

On the weekly charts the SPX is totally overextended and due for a correction to at least 1415 regions imo.

I think Tuesday will be significant when housing data is released in the US.

 

[Atilla]

Went short on SPX500 at 1455.2.

Target is 1444. I may take half my profits around the 1450 mark again though just to lock in some profits for the day.

So far so good. Broken out of BBand range and my MA all on the right side. Placing trailing stops incase of bounces.

I'm also long on GBPUSD.

 

[Bez]

Were coming in to that key time 17:00-1730 window for a low point....

Then we Should get some upward pressure till 20:00 ish

 

[Atilla]

Were coming in to that key time 17:00-1730 window for a low point....

Then we Should get some upward pressure till 20:00 ish

I've closed my positions.

My Oscillators are showing buy indicators. However, I won't go long but watch the bounce. With oil falling I guess 1456 - 1460 regions before resistance kicks in.

How is it that you can estimate the times for these low points? What system do you use or is it market experience?

I'm very impressed..

 

[Bez]

I just use my own take on delta on where time pressure is likely to be up or down...

I wouldn't trade off it alone its just nice when everything lines up from time to time
I was just playing around on the 60min charts that hinted at a low point in time between 17:00 & 18:00 GMT...If things start to slip I can adjust what the higher frame is up too...