Trading NASDAQ stocks with Jerry Olson & Ian Hodgson

[eurotrader52]

ALERT: CTX short 46.84, PHM SHORT @ 27.98

Looking for a continued short hopefully to the 46.50 target intraday, ultimate area 45 by mid week.

 

[eurotrader52]

Holding SLB 65 puts for weeks here gret short below 59 target 55

The best way to get short in oil sector is grab that "bear flag" reversal. Had the stock long with a target of 70, got stopped out but held a hedge with the 65 puts and they have been phenomenal. (see prior posts on SLB)

 

[eurotrader52]

GOOG 380 puts (posted Friday) @ 3.60 now 4.80 ($0.10 spread)

GOOG still trading nirvana. Anyone playing any shorts, careful to lock in profits (I divide into thirds taking 1/3 profits and lowering my stops) Getting stopped out will always be at a profit unless you get a gap up which is why I didn't risk holding an expensive option put (GOOG 390) over the weekend but rather the cheaper 380 for risk tolerance. I DO NOT have tight stops because GOOG has always pulled back at the declining 50 period moving average. My stop would be as high as the 385.60 area (where I expect any rally to fade)

 

[eurotrader52]

QQQQ, SNDK, PHM, SLB (puts), GOOG (puts) still in play on SHORT SIDE

Traders I expect the declining 20 period moving average to HOLD in check all attempts at reversal to upside. The 50 period ma (also declining) is the upper channel resistance for SNDK, GOOG, SLB, etc. Early in the session that area proved to be a good short as the resistance of the 50/20 period moving average on the 5 minute chart did not hold.

Hoping not to get stopped out of the CTX puts as my stop is 47.25, PHM is proving to be the better short.

 

[eurotrader52]

GS new play for last hour of trading (see chart below)

GS is a investment banking, securities, and investment mnagement services company. Its a potential "bubble" here as well. The pullback today is a 'sympathy' play with the earnings that came on on LEH (Lehman brothers). I would expect volatility by the last hour to 90 minutes of the session

 

[eurotrader52]

Into "after doldrums" 2:00 reversal period ACCELERATED DOWNSIDE

great break down of all "bear flags" in nasdaq shorts, as well as short in the oil service (SLB) and building sector (PHM, with CTX soon to break this intraday consolidation) Long 10 contrats of June 150 puts @ 4.70 but looking to pick up more contracts later in the session. Looking for a breakdown of GS at 147.50 for a retest of the 145.60 intraday lows an a Tuesday morning pullback of 3 to 4%. SHORT THE RALLY (bear flag) day at the area of first resistance (20 period ma) and if that doesn'nt hold the declining 50 ma should knock out any chance of upside in the nasdaq (SNDK, QQQQ) and of course the building sector (PHM exploding to downside here).. SLB target of 55 closing in.

 

[Grey1]

Ok i am done for the day . $up $3313

JAPAN 1 AUSTRALIA 3
MARKET 0 GREY1 $3313.39

What an awesome correlation between SLB and VLO .. you could position yourself in either if one moved first. Like an open poker


Grey1

 

[eurotrader52]

GS T-I-I-I-I-I-MBER lows of the day GOOG 5.20 (locked in 5.20 from 3.60)

:cheesy: Fantastic breakdown of virtually all our short and/or put plays. GOOG excellent those with high risk tolerance might look to 30 to 50 puts in the 380's. GS posted well in advance of the drop as well as GOOG, MLM, PHM, SNDK SLB. QQQQ CTX finally last but not least to join the downside. If you are looking to go long, I just wouldn't. Today another EASY AS PIE short the rally day. Although I did not do it in 40 minutes but stayed glued to my 6 positions all the session! Asked why I don't post in an American forum (pm) its because its a bit of a conflict of interest since I am trading other traders' accounts including my own.

 

[eurotrader52]

Ok i am done for the day . $up $3313

JAPAN 1 AUSTRALIA 3
MARKET 0 GREY1 $3313.39



What an awesome correlation between SLB and VLO .. you could position yourself in either if one moved first. Like an open poker


Grey1

Grey1, Impressive as always! Keeps the "class curve" very high indeed! I will be hanging around until the last hour of trading mostly to lock in gains and make my final analysis of GS. My "good grades" do not come without 'grinding' and "studying" but I enjoy the thrill of the upside and haven't had the agony of defeat yet this year.

 

[eurotrader52]

MLM down 3.8% from Sunday's chart (84.28 to 80.24)

MLM has risen "bubble" commmodity atmosphere. The sector should continue to drop for a while however I would NOT be short in front of the August 3rd earnings report. Looks like a great opportunity for further shorting on the intraday chart. Options puts are a great way to short this BUBBLY commodity.

Still loving the MLM "bubble" prick. Covering MLM and locked in intraday short here @ 80.49 still holding 1/3 short. Will NOT hold any short overnight in MLM

 

[eurotrader52]

HOLDING SHORTS/ PUTS through the 3:30- 3:45 will lock in at lows before close. WOWEE!

Great day once again on the short side. QQQQ, SNDK, Waiting here on CTX for another retest of 46.36 and about to cover PHM before the close. Will plan to HOLD these positions:

SLB 65 puts (1/3)
GS 150 puts (all the puts but covering intraday short)
GOOG (partial 380 puts)

Short: QQQQ (partial)

 

[eurotrader52]

3:45 finally short covering after full day of short/put play )(NO LONGS)

Another great short day as stocks look to close near or at session LOWS. Nothing here I care to be "gambling" long. NDX closes at low of the day holding a position in the QQQQ short. PHM, SLB, MLM, accelerated downside on CLIMACTIC VOLUME (volume higher than the average daily volume) indicates further downside on these equities.

 

[eurotrader52]

MLM last position cover @ 79.81 for MLM >flat here>

Another great short day as stocks look to close near or at session LOWS. Nothing here I care to be "gambling" long. NDX closes at low of the day holding a position in the QQQQ short. PHM, SLB, MLM, accelerated downside on CLIMACTIC VOLUME (volume higher than the average daily volume) indicates further downside on these equities.

Flat MLM for today

 

[Grey1]

Grey1, Impressive as always! Keeps the "class curve" very high indeed! I will be hanging around until the last hour of trading mostly to lock in gains and make my final analysis of GS. My "good grades" do not come without 'grinding' and "studying" but I enjoy the thrill of the upside and haven't had the agony of defeat yet this year.

Thanks Euro ,

I just got home to see DOW fallen - 103. OMG . I could have made a killing on BHI .

days like this is just too easy to take a good bite from the market.

Hope you made a killing too EURO


Grey1

 

[eurotrader52]

Thanks Euro ,

I just got home to see DOW fallen - 103. OMG . I could have made a killing on BHI .

days like this is just too easy to take a good bite from the market.

Hope you made a killing too EURO


Grey1

Yeah but not BHI I have SLB puts however its funny how some traders are just doing nothing and waiting for upside to trade this market. Do we really care what the direction of the market is? A good trader trades any direction and I don't mean just for the "hit 'n run" dart play for a few cents gamble. I would have liked to be proficient on the VWAP engine but I'm comfortable in my old methodology....for now!

I look to trade the direction of my chosen sector (i.e. oil or oil service, commodities, techs or building sector) but I certainly won't waste valuable trading capital waiting only for upside in a market that is a shorter's dream. As for investing, I've gotten my investors out of the long side just before the Mid-May reversal just to make sure they were out of the "tremor zone". I'd rather be out a little too early on the long side than holding and buying dips only to see cracks and temors destroy all gains. I am not buying dips yet, its just too easy to short the novice's rally and get even more gains on the short side.

 

[eurotrader52]

KBH ADBE: How to set up further shorts in these sectors?

I know that everyone looks at charts, but there are certain economic numbers and specific reports (i.e. earnings reports) of which you must be aware for any overnight and/or longer term short play. For example, I got my "go ahead" to short both PHM and CTX today because of an earnings downside announcement by "WCI" early this morning. I felt safe that any rally in PHM or CTX (this was a big harder getting down) would be shorted into. My next move would be to watch for further downside in KBH but not holding any position long/short through Thursday night when KBH has its earnings report. We might discuss an option position but in the past I have posted a 'bear flag earnings rally' particularly in TOL based on a not that negative earnings report. These are not fundamentals per se, but rather, information you need to not go head first into any stock positions merely because some scalper thinks the charts have "bottomed*". I will be posting comprehensive charts in both ADBE and KBH tonight.

My watch list will be limited tomorrow.

ADBE Adobe systems Inc Potential bear flag "shortable" rally here.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060612/adobe_analyst.html?.v=1
Setting up for a short but we need to set up projections for next 3 trading sessions.

KBH volatility will increase in front of Thursday's report (building sector on standby here)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...27CC90}&source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060612/market_spotlight_housing_prices.html?.v=2


*what is a bottom exactly? Just when these bottom feeders are saying certain support positions are broken and we should be in freefall from there, that area is PRECISELY where we rally up! So just trade the intraday action but beware of any impediments along the way (i.e. earnings report, key economic reports, etc). Remember stocks like MLM and GOOG have first and foremost moved up on fundamental realities. The technicals have followed the fundamentals, even though daytraders scoff at these truths.

 

[eurotrader52]

KBH (or TOL, PHM) Post Mortem: The Death of a Sector

I still love this sector for downside. The only reason I "victimized" KBH was because of the forthcoming earnings report on Thursday which should add some momentum to this particular home builder, but this chart can 'work" for old favorite short TOL, PHM and less so, CTX. The chart shows nothing positive and reminds one of death valley, but there is always hope (I could care less!) of a dead cat bounce in this sector. You can see "green candlesticks*" lighting your way on the otherwise dark KBH chart. might consider a further PUT position in the 40 or 45 strike price by Thursday but intraday its easier to just SHORT AWAY at breaks of overhead resistance on the 5 minute chart (check the 50 ma there)

*green candlestick otherwise referred to as REVERSAL patterns can be good for 1-2 days of rally but at this point, I might look at one hour or so.

 

[eurotrader52]

ADBE trying to be kind here to an old favorite but....

I'd like to try for a long on ADBE (above 28.50) mostly because its OVERSOLD and did honestly make a brave attempt at a gap up and snap. But alas, ADBE is trading lower after hours after a late session breakdown. Looking for a potential rally (dead cat bounce) as ADBE should recover if there is a decided bounce in the futures. On the other hand, if the market bounces I could think of many others I'd rather be long (i.e. the GOOG 390 calls come to mind or even another old favorite MLM)

 

[eurotrader52]

more breakdowns? Banking sector ($bkx)

Banking sector should be watched in the morning along with GS which has already triggered short during Monday's session. Look for even a gap up GS to be shortable in a "gap fill"

 

[samtron]

Euro,

Thanks for taking all the time and effort it must take to make you postings.

Its great to see traders willing to share their thoughts in such a genuine and detailed manner.

Keep up the good work