Trading ES (Q2 2004)

Do people find this thread useful?

  • waste of typing time. pls trade your ideas in silence :(

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We have now had our equal moves. I have been waiting for this to happen for a couple of weeks.

I would now like to see a retracement back to the 1100 mark being the 62% area where it may find support and at the same time form the right should of an inverse H&S.
 

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Good charts Stoploss...

Here's our view ;)


The bigger picture of the ES #F

CJ
 

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Price....

I see china'a gone a little quiet on here lately ;) :)
 

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mate 2 things :)

1) an official excuse is that i am travelling extensively thru mexico these days :) spent about a week in baja, and going back to mexico again next week, so barely have time to trade, set aside posting..... obviously another romance on the cards - coming to latin countries and not falling in love is a bit like shorting an up trend - u r just better off not trying to do that - it will happen anyway :)

2) secondly - yes i still do watch tick and other bits. however 95% of my trading decisions these days are dark side and i am not going to be too surprised if it is going to be 99.99% shortly. I really do not think I shud be posting trades based on tick analysis when the underlying reason for those trades is price-volume action.

I will def continue to contribute to this thread, especially after the results of that small poll of mine. But i think u shud be expecting a very different analysis from what I used to post before. To be fully honest, i dont know where to post these days :) here or on "no indicators" :)

but - coming back to my official excuse, it is 5:20 pm here, tequila is strong, el mariachi is playing and mi amor is caliente like there is no tomorrow..... :) enjoy your weekend!
 
I do not think that the Tick play is a derived entry. I would say it is a pure price action indicator.

Lets all meet on the Dark Side.
 
Rogue Volume!

Hi all,
I thought I'd post here as I didn't want to disturb the flow on "no indicators", hope you'll all still add your opinions though.
I've noticed that Fridays can often demonstrate behaviour which indicates that all the business is done in the morning session so that everyone can then got to lunch and let themselves lounge around in the afternoon allowing lunch to digest! :LOL: Today seemed to be one of those days, with a lovely ten point move north off a nice reversal pattern on the 5 min chart during the morning. Post 10:30 there was little to speak of in volume, with even nothing appearing after 14:00.
To me there was little to indicate the big drop which occured at 14:50, but maybe I'm missing something. I saw a strong support level at 1135.5, with a double bottom formed by the swing lows at 12:05 and 13:10. I was in fact on a cheeky short which I had initiated due to the sequence of lower highs on both the 10 and 5 min charts. I closed at a small profit due to the approaching support and the potential for a triple bottom.
I actually had a bit of a laugh to myself as I saw three very quick points slip through my fingers on the spike down - I guess it's good to have a chuckle every now and then to remain sane. ;)
My main question is this, and it occured to me after I saw the huge volume appear with this bar. I see this as a combination of sequential stops being mowed down, and the big boys coming in to protect their long positions, as clearly they we're not letting it go down!
My after thought was this though - How much of this would be automated system trading, and how much can be attributed to big boys being woken from their slumbering state after a long lunch? :LOL:
I'd be interested in all thoughts but especially those with regard to the volume.
Cheers
Q
PS - in hindsight, maybe this is an odd looking Adam and Eve top with a thicker than normal Adam, and a rather under-endowed Eve? :eek:
 

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a very informative day. the problem is i cannot post anything since my QCharts started misbehaving and omitting huge chunks of feed from last session. promise if it gets fixed i will post some very interesting things. sorry.
 
Break Back's on the news the American's body was found in Saudi. :(
 
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Some have asked what are break backs???
Basic pattern stuff...

He's a 15min ES 4U chart for some light relief from the heavy thread.... ;) :) )

Plus a 60min on why 1132 is key.

CJ
 

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a320
I have been following your posts about measured moves and must say,I am really interested in your methods.This interest me because I am reading Larry Pesavento's book " Fibonacci Ratios with Pattern Recognition".
One question I want ask you,is how do you decide on the direction of the ABCD move and the XA starting point.
I have been studying Fibonacci retracements and can follow your fib grids etc.
I have read your posts on this thread and also the no indicators thread,hope you dont mind me following your threads.

Regards Fluke
 
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An example for Fluke...

See what you make of it.....

:)
 

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a320.
Thanks for replying to my request,I have looked at the chart and understand the basics.
The problem I am trying to overcome is deciding where to start the XA set up to produce the ABC pattern
with the projected target at D in a winning direction either north or south.So that I can trade short or long with some confidence.

Hope you can under stand the above,I have tried to describe the question as best as I can.

If you dont mind, I could PM you so as not to interfere with the thread subject "Trading ES".

Regards
 
In any series of waves if they relate in a geometric manner there needs to be a least two binding relationships of geometric ratio. You need to find a joint binding geometry between 4 waves of similar degree to confirm you have a geometric set.Two relationships is a start but 3 can be a certainty.

Its a question of logic... X on the chart is the low point of this current move, I tagged the waves as they impulsed & corrected on their merry way. Once you see the Binding relationship of the 4 wave set at point D, logic dictated wave D had terminated, & new wave would start .

Hope this helps a little, but to be honest you'll need to do a lot more research on top of Pesavento in order to maximise this technique.. Maybe one of Tom Hougaards free seminars would helpful if your really into these methods??

CJ
 
a320.
Your post 156 and the discription is very helpful thanks.
You have pointed out the best way to use this pattern.I was trying to calculate a starting point at A without taking into account the 4 waves ending at D. I will now start looking at point D to commence a new 4 wave
set up.
I have found your posts on the TT site and will read you there too.

"Off we go into the wild blue yonder flying high into the sun. !!"(this may be before your time).

regards
 
a320 said:
Maybe one of Tom Hougaards free seminars would helpful if your really into these methods??

CJ
Fluke,
May I suggest you go straight to the guy that TH learnt off ....
Bryce Gilmore.....if you want to get into this type of analysis...
I've read quite a bit of Bryces methods and yes I was on a user group before TH joined and followed with interest his progress.....
Anyhow Bryces stuff can be found at...
http://www.cycletrader.com.au
http://www.bryce-gilmore.com/welcome.htm
Hope this helps,
KJH
PS, Bryce and Larry are good mates so it might be a doubling up of info if you already have Larrys books.....
 
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KJH.
Thanks for taking the trouble to give me the information about Bryce Gilmore and the other stuff.
I am interested in this subject and will certainly investigste the sites you gave me.

Regards.
 
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