shadowninja
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Used to trade 5 minute binaries 30 minutes before closing. What a rush.
N Rothschild
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trading the s&p500 sell off's/rallys towards the closing bell is always good
hwsteele
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I didn't trade it but when the market opened today in the first 40 minutes it fell a little over 35 points.
From the last high pivot of the day(3:00) before the big drop, to the bottom of the big drop was a little over 35 points.
Price doesn't always set up like this but when it does allot of the time you can use the first big swing of the day to gauge the last.
The first chart is today and the next three are from just last week. You should be able to get the idea from them. If you have any more questions just ask.
From the last high pivot of the day(3:00) before the big drop, to the bottom of the big drop was a little over 35 points.
Price doesn't always set up like this but when it does allot of the time you can use the first big swing of the day to gauge the last.
The first chart is today and the next three are from just last week. You should be able to get the idea from them. If you have any more questions just ask.
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hwsteele
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I don't think there can be any meaning in a strictly defined entry time ,, there's the
so called mirror effect, where the's one trend in early session followed by an equal
trend in the afternoon, and these will often be equal in either duration or magnitude,
there' s no specific entry time
this is the most accurate method in the SP500, however there's long periods of time
like months where the session is messed up and doesn't offer this,,, when the market
offers this measurable afternonn trend you can make a lot of money with much less
stress, you know exactly when when to get out, I once made 50% profit on a small
account in a metter of 4 short trades over one month, the next month market didn't
cooperate on this and didn't offer 'mirror effect'
vergis92, my point is that now the DJ has a very clear pattern: right before the closing bell, there will be strong ONE WAY trend until 15 mins after the market closed. So if we can capture this trend, there would be a very good return with minimum risk (because it is not likely to have U turn during that time).
For example, last Friday, the steep fall trend started about 15 mins before the closing bell, I captured it when I think it is clear and made about 94 pounds profit. It is not a lot, but I considered it more risk-free. (On Friday, the final big trend is more likely to be downwards) My view is if it becomes the risk-free, you can just put more leverage, so the 90 could be 180, 360,900....
This is I called Closign Bell Trade, which is to just capture the final one way trend of the day. With people busy at work, this is the very efficient way to make money. But now I am still not 100% confident in this pattern and do not know if it existed before or it will last for long. Any ideas, guys?
For example, last Friday, the steep fall trend started about 15 mins before the closing bell, I captured it when I think it is clear and made about 94 pounds profit. It is not a lot, but I considered it more risk-free. (On Friday, the final big trend is more likely to be downwards) My view is if it becomes the risk-free, you can just put more leverage, so the 90 could be 180, 360,900....
This is I called Closign Bell Trade, which is to just capture the final one way trend of the day. With people busy at work, this is the very efficient way to make money. But now I am still not 100% confident in this pattern and do not know if it existed before or it will last for long. Any ideas, guys?
hwsteele, I remembered now, that day I did not consider there will be a upward trend is because the 2nd bottom is only slightly higher than the first one. I thought I should consider it as neutral of upward signal.
when and where did you entry the market.?
If let me do again, when the market reached 8550 I will consider the double bottom and uptrend clear, I will probably get in at around 8400 when it pulled back. but I would definitely struggled at 8400 level because I do not know I should wait for 8300 or not. How would you make a decision?
when and where did you entry the market.?
If let me do again, when the market reached 8550 I will consider the double bottom and uptrend clear, I will probably get in at around 8400 when it pulled back. but I would definitely struggled at 8400 level because I do not know I should wait for 8300 or not. How would you make a decision?
hwsteele
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jackypw,
The first trend line down is hit only once and then a second, more shallow, line is hit a total of three times. That indicates that the downtrend is getting weaker. The line on the top of the price channel works the whole time right up to the end. Notice that when price makes the first bottom in the double bottom it rallies past the top channel line. That fails, but when it comes back down, the price never makes it any where near the bottom channel line. It then makes the second bottom of the double bottom and starts to move high again. On the second break of the upper channel line I would have gone long with a stop bellow the FIRST bottom of the two.
To add it all up:
First - we have the channel being broken to the up side.
Second - when it comes back down price makes a high bottom never getting close to the bottom channel line again.
Third – we are entering the last hour of trading so if the price is going to make the same move up again that it did in the beginning of the day it will need to start right about now.
So on this trade we have a risk of about 80-90 points and a target of 400. That is a nice trade!
Fourth – the price breaks the top channel line again and the trade is entered.
The first trend line down is hit only once and then a second, more shallow, line is hit a total of three times. That indicates that the downtrend is getting weaker. The line on the top of the price channel works the whole time right up to the end. Notice that when price makes the first bottom in the double bottom it rallies past the top channel line. That fails, but when it comes back down, the price never makes it any where near the bottom channel line. It then makes the second bottom of the double bottom and starts to move high again. On the second break of the upper channel line I would have gone long with a stop bellow the FIRST bottom of the two.
To add it all up:
First - we have the channel being broken to the up side.
Second - when it comes back down price makes a high bottom never getting close to the bottom channel line again.
Third – we are entering the last hour of trading so if the price is going to make the same move up again that it did in the beginning of the day it will need to start right about now.
So on this trade we have a risk of about 80-90 points and a target of 400. That is a nice trade!
Fourth – the price breaks the top channel line again and the trade is entered.
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Thanks, hwsteele. Very good analysis. Yesterday's (27-oct)closing was clear so I made a decent return for the last 30 mins until 15 mins after the market close.
But I found the the signals from the DJ movements for the last trading hours was confusing. Any suggestions?
But I found the the signals from the DJ movements for the last trading hours was confusing. Any suggestions?
hwsteele
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At this point just one big one:
If you are not sure then don't make the trade. Some times you just have to let the trade go. As always don't force yourself into anything. After all tomorrow is another day!
StockHunter
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I have attempted to, but for myself I find that the last hour is hard for me to play so I don't trade it, however I will hold onto a trade that I'm already in. I also currently don't trade the 1st 1/2 hour of the day, but I am testing a gap strategy so that rule might change eventually .
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