trading across six pairs..

piphoe

Legendary member
10,038 194
If you are going to trade fx you will be better off trading fundamentals instead of a useless technical based system. Don't listen to others regarding the basket you have chosen. It's a good spread of risk off\on pairs, commodity pairs, and other general economies which all have different influences against the $. I know you are heavily bought into technicals just ask yourself one thing, how has your success with fx been with just technicals. Give fundamentals a chance and I am confident you will turn your luck around.

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Eventually I'll start picking up more fundamentals etc. Now, my focus is on the chart & PA.

Is there enough fundamentals to drive several trades per day across these pairs?
 

piphoe

Legendary member
10,038 194
I'm adding EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD and GBP/JPY

they look like they haave some nice ranges
 

FXX

Experienced member
1,162 199
Eventually I'll start picking up more fundamentals etc. Now, my focus is on the chart & PA.

Is there enough fundamentals to drive several trades per day across these pairs?
I have doubled my account in 10 months so yes there is plenty of opportunity but not every day which is a good thing for a balanced life. You don't need to be sitting in front of charts all day to make money every day and you definitely don't need to be in the market trading every day to maximise your return. Those days when there is no news you will see technical traders mostly losing but also sitting in front of the screens waiting for something to happen only to discover it doesn't. Take this week for example

Monday, no news
Tuesday, RBA rate decision and statement (the statement is the most important and if they bring forward or extend further the next hike we will see ausi move)
Wednesday, NZD rate decision (same situation as ausi)
Thursday, China cpi (can cause risk off if softer so look to trade ausi if it is). We also get US inflation which could cause a selloff if softer than expected
Friday, ausie policy statement, UK Gdp, cad employment and cpi

Those are the main opportunities for the week coupled with any sentiment driving news like trade talks or brexit or North Korea, even Iran. These are like bonus opportunities on top of the data releases but don't come with a schedule. You don't need to even look at these though to make money but they do offer additional opportunity.

The first thing you need to understand is news driving factors don't happen all the time and you don't need to be in the market every day to end the week with positive growth. This is probably going to be your biggest challenge going off how you trade every day from what I can see. Its a good thing though because what you are doing now will only end bad. I was very much like you when I started but was laughed at when I approached professional traders for tips at work. That got me thinking and I never looked back.

It will take approx 6 months of hard work at this before it starts clicking. What I can say for sure though is you will never want to trade any other way again. Its like night and day. Technical traders execute trades without knowing if it will work or how long it might take to work. They also get trapped in whipsaw news events like last weeks BOE rate decision where the vote spread was unanimous but Carney was dovish in his statement.
Put it this was, trading news is not trading on hopes or probability, Its trading events that cause the market to price in new information. The best way I can explain it would be to have technical traders place bets then flip a coin while news traders wait until they see the result then place the bet.

Not to be overly judgmental of technical traders, but very, very few actually make a success of that type of trading. I think the reason for this is visibility. You need everyone to be seeing the setup the same or similar as you and action that opinion. Without this you are basically entering a trade that will likely never work, like a coin flip. News on the other hand is visible to everyone that's important in this business and therein lies the main difference as far as visibility is concerned.

If you do your homework and understand how to digest news and place it in context with the market, then you have a far greater advantage over technical traders who will mostly be questioning what's going on or trying to chase price at their own peril.

Just give it a few months and when that first trade comes along and you nail it, all will be clear as to the path you should be taking. The confidence in direction and certainty about the trading decision and the immediate feedback from the market is unlike anything technical could ever offer. I can't speak of other markets in this context only fx but I am 100 percent sure that it would be the best move for you to get profitable. You will know exactly why the market is moving and that is exactly how you make money, not guessing based on historical price points and wondering if any given move has legs or is just a move that would siphon money from your account.

I can show you a chart from my thread that shouldn't leave any doubt in your mind as to the drivers of price or I can pull one up now fresh, any pair of your choosing and show you the overlap of news events with price reacting.

If you are serious about being profitable in fx, then this is the only way to do it without burning out trying technical based strategies. Guys will tell me bull5h!t and yet they can only show hindsight charts or isolated trades. It's all about consistency and that's all that counts at the end of the day. It is very difficult to be consistent if you don't know what is driving the market and how much potential it offers. I have asked before and will state it again that I am happy to be proven wrong on this. The few that make it using technical systems have very small margins as they need to absorb a lot of losers to get lucky with winners. They also have a problem of adapting their trading to different market conditions. This is why you see on sites like zulu trader where fantastic account growth is met with doom time and time again. Markets change causing technical trading strategies to stop working for a period.

If there is any doubt then ask yourself why do hedge funds and investment banks or professional traders all have news feeds. If they could simply devise a trading plan based on technicals then why bother spending all that money. Going back to when the light clicked with me was when I was laughed at for even asking about trading tips in a technical sense. That made me think about the reality of my undertaking and couple that with the stats for retail traders who surprise surprise, mostly operate technical based trading strategies.

Something to think about anyway. Its a big decision and will go against everything you feel is your path to success. What do you have to lose by spending a few months giving it a go. You will at least walk away with knowledge of how institutions participate in the market and how the news drives sentiment.

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Nowler

Experienced member
1,236 127
I was convinced that technical analysis was the answer!
Now I feel very foolish...
I still think TA is important, but not even remotely as important as I thought.

I strongly recommend you take FXX's advice onboard.
Perhaps even take a few short months off like I did to refresh and get rid of your urge to trade. It's that urge that's going to undo any and all profits you make.

For what it's worth, I am finding huge benefit from the audiobooks I have listened to.
Also getting regular notifications as to the daily goings on in the market have helped immensely.

Changing how you've been operating isn't going to be easy... that's why I recommend a little break away from it.
A detox if you will..
 

piphoe

Legendary member
10,038 194
1st PAPER trade: GBPJPY

entry 144.52
target 145.62
stop 144.16

Not sure I'm interpreting this method correctly, but.....got start somewhere. at very least will be fun and who knows what :D

paper trade only
 

piphoe

Legendary member
10,038 194
2nd PAPER trade: EURAUD

entry 1.5633
target 1.5698
stop 1.5602

I've two other trades on the radar trying to figure are they real or am I seeing things:eek:
 

Dowser

Experienced member
1,497 354
1st PAPER trade: GBPJPY

entry 144.52
target 145.62
stop 144.16

Not sure I'm interpreting this method correctly, but.....got start somewhere. at very least will be fun and who knows what :D

paper trade only
Is it possible to give us a general overview of 'The Method' ?
 

piphoe

Legendary member
10,038 194
1st PAPER trade: GBPJPY

entry 144.52
target 145.62
stop 144.16

Not sure I'm interpreting this method correctly, but.....got start somewhere. at very least will be fun and who knows what :D

paper trade only

This was premature, I believe the method says I should be long now @ 144.16.

As I said few posts ago, my interpretation of the PA w/indi is not very good yet.
 

Dowser

Experienced member
1,497 354
It would probably take 6 long paragraphs. Then some more clarification.:|
Wow! :-0 It'd probably go straight over our heads anyway!!:confused:
 

piphoe

Legendary member
10,038 194
Wow! :-0 It'd probably go straight over our heads anyway!!:confused:
I doubt that some you guys are pretty savvy. I'm pretty sure most you tell why it doesn't work :D After I get a few trades on, I'll work on putting something together in WORD and pasting it here.(y)
 

Dowser

Experienced member
1,497 354
I doubt that some you guys are pretty savvy. I'm pretty sure most you tell why it doesn't work :D After I get a few trades on, I'll work on putting something together in WORD and pasting it here.(y)
Look forward to it...(y)
 

piphoe

Legendary member
10,038 194
Another PAPER trade: USDCHF

entry 9964
target 1005
stop 9947

pushing this too hard I think, this is an M15 hence the target aand stop not far aways
 
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NVP

Legendary member
37,453 1,956
A great point, picked those because they are the ones I'm most familiar.

Pls recommend a basket of pairs, you or anyone.
hey pip

that was why i asked as i noticed the usd dominance

if you are suggesting independent pairs then isn’t that just like normal trading...except you are prepared to go multiple contracts and pairs at the same time ....and take a larger chunk of capital out more than normal

hence in fact my question about correlation .....and baskets

for,example you have 8 majors ......hence you can only ever take just 4 independent trades and then after that you are starting to favour certain currencies


N
 
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