Trade what you see, not what you think....

There are plenty of members here who are very proficient at that.
Clearly they are not the same thing.....mind here means consciousness and not the brain.
Hence there is also a saying: Reading and understanding are two very different things.

wackypete2: said:
If one can trade what they see but currently aren't seeing anything then they are still in the process of trading but being passive at the moment. By that logic then dead men can also trade what they see, no?
A dead man cannot SEE!.....would you like to rephase based on the above understanding?
Even if one can see, it is just an illusion!
 
Clearly they are not the same thing.....mind here means consciousness and not the brain.
Hence there is also a saying: Reading and understanding are two very different things.


A dead man cannot SEE!.....would you like to rephase based on the above understanding?
Even if one can see, it is just an illusion!

I do know that Dead Men Can't Dance

What do you make of John 9:25, that says:
- "I was blind but now I can see"

Peter
 

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I was patiently waiting, trying to trade what I see until I realized the only thing I see is the markets are closed here today. Quite clearly I have nothing better to do.

Mods, edit what you will...

Apologies to robster...

Peter
 
But a dead man eyes does not have eye-consciousness therefore cannot see!
I and eye are not related to that sense.....unless you want to make your point again.....please.
 
Thanks for the response. And yes, an example of a system would be cool. I mean, these systems would be setup to take advantage of an edge, and I'm just wondering how they would go about programming such things. You're talking about "low latency fractals" and "self adjusting parabolas", but I've no idea what these would refer to as my knowledge is limited to maybe market auction theory, mean reversion, liquidity, and knowing when to take a punt. :LOL:

So basically you're saying the most reliable edge in the market would be that of a market maker's? I don't think I'd doubt that given what I know of the practice. Us retails likely don't have access to such a strat, though.

Tangentially, would you say the retail player has any potential edge, or that his small size is his best asset? That's perhaps what I'm really asking.

On some level, I find all this looking at charts stuff as a retail player to reek of BS (as much as I keep doing it!). A tangible edge such as market making, stat arb, etc. would perhaps be more palatable if it were available. What's your take on that? Are retails stuck to finding edges in charts (or a DoM), or is there some other potential avenue for an edge?

I don't have a working example for you as much of the code is obfuscated, which is why I find it hard to believe anyone could nick HFT code (see Goldmans and UBS recently). I have already told Shakone that we were developing a parabola system that adapted the focus of each parabola formed using momentum and volume at a tick level - the parabola and moving focus abilities were obfuscated core libraries, we were trying to get them to 'curve fit' huge amounts of historical data (all optimisation is curve fit) using a Python high level trader and had some success - I use a similar method now, albeit using my own crappy functions. I know that all sounds a bit jargony, but that's what it was and I can't think of other ways to define it (if you imagine pSAR not just used for exits and that wraps itself based on more than just based on ATR).

Yes definitely - market makers have reliability and adaptability (differing opinions are good for trading randomness eh) and we have theoretically superior rates of return with none of the 'guarantees'. Plus we suffer from single mindedness as evidenced by this thread and the respective biases we have all shown. Most corporations are ultimately managed by people who couldn't care about the ins and outs, only about the profit, and if the automated team could offer more profit with less risk, then they get the capital and vice versa.

I honestly can't think of many other advantages beyond the size except for less applicable regulation and fewer indirect costs!

Depends on the instrument I guess - I know there are futures out there that people use large size to 'manipulate' as best they can, even at a retail level. However, I don't see this happening in FX. Beyond knowing the 'pre' market institutional levels, I can't think of anything beyond the charts, and perhaps anything else is misdirecting focus. Often when I get a new tool, I assign too much weight to it and my old tools were better all along... just like my new driver. Turns out I'm just sh*t at golf.
 
Often when I get a new tool, I assign too much weight to it and my old tools were better all along... just like my new driver. Turns out I'm just sh*t at golf.

:LOL:

On a serious note, after reading your post about parabolic modelling, I immediately opened up a chart and had a look at a sell-off and subsequent return back to it's original starting point. It looked like it could be quite easily approximated by ax^2+bx+c. I then started to notice how many of the movements had a parabolic nature about them. :eek:
 
I think the whole subject area depends on the level/ability of the trader. 'Feel' that has been developed by going down the correct path will be different to someone who feels trades based on no understanding.
The difference cannot be properly appreciated until one has personal experience of being both a novice and a more experienced trader who over years of practicing the correct approach can really feel the market. So the bigger question is perhaps what individual qualities (or alternatively lack of qualities) stop most people from either reasoning out the right path for themselves or recognising the correct approach if it is pointed out by another?
Without addressing this question, you are perhaps trying to illustrate a profound difference in approach and consequent difference in results which cannot be comprehended by the audience.
So a question for people:

If you take a trade, and have a target of 30 points, and you have an educated expectation that this will take about an hour to play out, what happens if;

the price moves 22 points in your favour in the 1st 10 mins? How does this affect your trade? Do you just sit in it, waiting for 30 points? Do you even consider the effect of time in the trade? What information would you use to justify staying in the trade? Indeed, are you even asking any questions?

Lots to be learnt from this tiny 1 trade scenario
So many appear not to consider time in their trading, but likely are actually using time as part of their decision making without being aware of it. (and not necessarily to their advantage) Again, the question really is about awareness.

It is almost for granted that very few people would be capable of even starting to ask the right questions themselves. Even then it takes years of sustained effort which sadly seems to be beyond most people.

I am fortunate to have been the beneficiary of the charity of a true top level expert trader and without this I would have succumbed to being part of the food chain and ultimately given up in frustration and defeat. I certainly wasn't creative, introspective, or self aware enough to self generate any of the correct lines of questioning and would not have persisted with the endeavor without being shown what was possible at the highest levels which has always given me great motivation and energy.

What I did have was the ability to be open to new information and gratitude for what was shared with me, and a sense of duty to myself and others to try my best to maximise the advantages I'd been given. So many others had the same opportunity and appeared not to appreciate it or really make the lessons a fundamental part of their lives.

What I still find sad is the people who will not hear, do not want to learn, shut themselves off from any opportunity through stubborn pride and sloth. I am resigned to this being part of the human condition: attitudes summed up in Matt 13:15 "For this people's heart is waxed gross, and their ears are dull of hearing, and their eyes they have closed; lest at any time they should see with their eyes, and hear with their ears, and should understand with their heart, and should be converted, and I should heal them."

The markets provide an endless flow of opportunity. If people would commit to seeking the truth about them selves first and the markets second, and cast aside any sloth and destructive pride based motives, comparisons with others, and just try and do the best they can, they'd at least have a chance.

Many may enter a market at discretion, but once in a trade they slip back into reactive mechanical rule based mode, which as can be seen from the above example will hinder long term results.
Is the result of taking a trade without any comprehension of what is occurring to create a trade opportunity and therefore how the trade should develop. How to convince people that this level is a) beneficial and b) possible. From personal experience, developing consistently accurate expectations and therefore reading when the market gives information that a trade needs to be exited sooner (or later) than originally planned took years even after being shown how and why in the first place.

Learning to do this properly means that trade selection and management evolves to the point of being able to profit on or scratch nearly all trades entered - the vast majority moving in your favour within less than a few minutes and with enough understanding and experience to reconise quickly when it is time to exit.

I'm pleased you're carrying on the good fight here - it is appreciated more than you know. There will be other people who grab the opportunity and run with it when given a nudge or two. Perhaps members should take more note of your posts and address the questions you are asking rather than regurgitating "common knowledge" about IBs, bots, HFT, etc. Which leads to another personal quality: insecurity, needing to know or pretend to know to give some comfort, as it is unacceptable to the self to admit ignorance. We all had to start somewhere - and being honest about where you are and what you do not (yet) know is a good place to start.

Back into hibernation for another 5 years. Continued success to you all!
 
What a truly excellent post. Perhaps you could be persuaded to post a little more frequently?
 
The difference cannot be properly appreciated until one has personal experience of being both a novice and a more experienced trader who over years of practicing the correct approach can really feel the market. So the bigger question is perhaps what individual qualities (or alternatively lack of qualities) stop most people from either reasoning out the right path for themselves or recognising the correct approach if it is pointed out by another?
Without addressing this question, you are perhaps trying to illustrate a profound difference in approach and consequent difference in results which cannot be comprehended by the audience.

So many appear not to consider time in their trading, but likely are actually using time as part of their decision making without being aware of it. (and not necessarily to their advantage) Again, the question really is about awareness.

It is almost for granted that very few people would be capable of even starting to ask the right questions themselves. Even then it takes years of sustained effort which sadly seems to be beyond most people.

I am fortunate to have been the beneficiary of the charity of a true top level expert trader and without this I would have succumbed to being part of the food chain and ultimately given up in frustration and defeat. I certainly wasn't creative, introspective, or self aware enough to self generate any of the correct lines of questioning and would not have persisted with the endeavor without being shown what was possible at the highest levels which has always given me great motivation and energy.

What I did have was the ability to be open to new information and gratitude for what was shared with me, and a sense of duty to myself and others to try my best to maximise the advantages I'd been given. So many others had the same opportunity and appeared not to appreciate it or really make the lessons a fundamental part of their lives.

What I still find sad is the people who will not hear, do not want to learn, shut themselves off from any opportunity through stubborn pride and sloth. I am resigned to this being part of the human condition: attitudes summed up in Matt 13:15 "For this people's heart is waxed gross, and their ears are dull of hearing, and their eyes they have closed; lest at any time they should see with their eyes, and hear with their ears, and should understand with their heart, and should be converted, and I should heal them."

The markets provide an endless flow of opportunity. If people would commit to seeking the truth about them selves first and the markets second, and cast aside any sloth and destructive pride based motives, comparisons with others, and just try and do the best they can, they'd at least have a chance.


Is the result of taking a trade without any comprehension of what is occurring to create a trade opportunity and therefore how the trade should develop. How to convince people that this level is a) beneficial and b) possible. From personal experience, developing consistently accurate expectations and therefore reading when the market gives information that a trade needs to be exited sooner (or later) than originally planned took years even after being shown how and why in the first place.

Learning to do this properly means that trade selection and management evolves to the point of being able to profit on or scratch nearly all trades entered - the vast majority moving in your favour within less than a few minutes and with enough understanding and experience to reconise quickly when it is time to exit.

I'm pleased you're carrying on the good fight here - it is appreciated more than you know. There will be other people who grab the opportunity and run with it when given a nudge or two. Perhaps members should take more note of your posts and address the questions you are asking rather than regurgitating "common knowledge" about IBs, bots, HFT, etc. Which leads to another personal quality: insecurity, needing to know or pretend to know to give some comfort, as it is unacceptable to the self to admit ignorance. We all had to start somewhere - and being honest about where you are and what you do not (yet) know is a good place to start.

Back into hibernation for another 5 years. Continued success to you all!

Besides the years of dedication and hard work, just occasionally we are visited by lady luck.
One could say that if we didn't spend the 10,000+ hrs dedicated to the cause, that we may not discover/create our luck.

I run some software on my PC which essentially crunches numbers continually. In and of itself, it does the job as intended and displays the visual information.
But get this! As the level of market activity starts to ramps up, the CPU / fan / inner gubbins start to go berserk. It's certainly the best volatility indicator/squawk i've experienced, and as a result, I always know when to do something and simply have to look where to do it:)
 
So the bigger question is perhaps what individual qualities (or alternatively lack of qualities) stop most people from either reasoning out the right path for themselves or recognising the correct approach if it is pointed out by another?


Well - I am one of the people that would never have figured it out for himself.

There's lots of people on forums who beat their chest and claim to have 'figured it out for themselves' by 'staring at charts' but this whole thing runs so counter to what I expected it to be that I would most likely never have seen what now seems quite obvious.

Now - once you get over the 'quite obvious' part, you then have a whole host of other things to get over to actually make money. This is the experiential part of trading, the skill building. The seeing it in time and not just looking back and seeing it. The acceptance that it's usually not 100% clear.

Yesterday was a good example. We'd had the big drop the day before and so I expected it to be tough. On the one hand, there was an argument for responsive buying from a market that was perhaps overextended to the short side, on the other hand, we haven't settled into a range for ages and typically we'd settle into a 60-70 point range on the ES and move around it for a few weeks before establishing a new high. So there was and still is a good argument for more downside to establish a range.

But you trade what you see..

So yesterday, I'm there with 3 diet cokes, lots of chewing gum & a cup of tea all lined up on my desk. I was expecting it to be tough but with a chance of a good break. I was expecting to have to stay very, very focused. Much more than usual. For me, it was a tricky day, I expected it to be. 2 winners & 1 loser (and I let the loser go a tick too far too). Not a terrible day by the results but a really tough day to trade.

Other days are easier. Some days are useless. If you are still flitting around between method looking for certainty, you probably aren't experiencing any of this.
 
@Pedro

You can get so far on your own but it took a big nudge from someone to make me realise just what is possible. I can see the next 5 years honing the skill now. I think we all need help sometimes and there is nothing wrong in asking for it either.
 
I'm pleased you're carrying on the good fight here - it is appreciated more than you know. There will be other people who grab the opportunity and run with it when given a nudge or two. Perhaps members should take more note of your posts and address the questions you are asking rather than regurgitating "common knowledge" about IBs, bots, HFT, etc. Which leads to another personal quality: insecurity, needing to know or pretend to know to give some comfort, as it is unacceptable to the self to admit ignorance. We all had to start somewhere - and being honest about where you are and what you do not (yet) know is a good place to start.

Back into hibernation for another 5 years. Continued success to you all!

An excellent post sir, thank you for the well thought response, great points raised/confirmed.

Continued success to you too!
 
@Pedro

You can get so far on your own but it took a big nudge from someone to make me realise just what is possible. I can see the next 5 years honing the skill now. I think we all need help sometimes and there is nothing wrong in asking for it either.

Well - I'm always on the look out for learning new tricks. You might not use them but it's interesting to know how other people approach it too.

Like anything - you'll always improve as you go.

That is of course, if you are in the relatively small percentage of people that think trading is a skill and not a sudoku puzzle.
 
That is of course, if you are in the relatively small percentage of people that think trading is a skill and not a sudoku puzzle.

Hi DT do you not think sudoku requires any skill? After all, there are various levels of the challenge.

Like you have pointed out, a small percentage believe that trading is a skill, and only a small percentage consistently profit from this business.

Im really surprised so few have actually clicked on this:whistling.

Lurkerlurker made a good point regarding people asking for help. The human make-up is strange, as many will pay for help rather than simply ask.

Anyway, onwards and upwards (or downwards).
 
Little bit confused now by some posts. I would have thought the majority consider it to be a skill, so I don't see where this idea that a small % think it is a skill comes from.

Could you clairfy please Wallstreet?
 
Hi DT do you not think sudoku requires any skill? After all, there are various levels of the challenge.

Like you have pointed out, a small percentage believe that trading is a skill, and only a small percentage consistently profit from this business.

Im really surprised so few have actually clicked on this:whistling.

Lurkerlurker made a good point regarding people asking for help. The human make-up is strange, as many will pay for help rather than simply ask.

Anyway, onwards and upwards (or downwards).

To be honest, I have never once played Sudoku, I just used that 'cause I thought it sounded dead clever....

Don't worry - "skill based trading" will be the "new black" in the trading world for spring/summer 2013. Watch out soon for the websites, EAs, indicators, alert services and youtube videos...
 
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