Tossing a coin 500 times

[JTrader]

I tossed a coin 500 times yesterday.
My results were 260 heads (52.0%), 240 tails (48.0%).

Within the 5 * 100 tosses, I had -
A 50 heads, 50 tails. And a 58 heads, 42 tails.

I also had a maximum of 6 consecutive of the same (tails).

I used a 1p coin (Sterling).

 

[Mathemagician]

You obviously have a coin-flipping edge. Which indicators do you use?

jj

 

[wasp]

I tossed a coin 500 times yesterday.
My results were 260 heads (52.0%), 240 tails (48.0%).

Within the 5 * 100 tosses, I had -
A 50 heads, 50 tails. And a 58 heads, 42 tails.

I also had a maximum of 6 consecutive of the same (tails).

I'd take up smoking, I find it a much better usage of my time and hands! :cheesy:

I smoked 20 fags yesterday, and they all tasted lovely, 'nuff said!

(sorry, carry on...!) :clap:

 

[JTrader]

I'd take up smoking, I find it a much better usage of my time and hands! :cheesy:

I smoked 20 fags yesterday, and they all tasted lovely, 'nuff said!

(sorry, carry on...!) :clap:

Yes maybe theres's also an issue of having too much time on ones hands, but I could NEVER take up smoking it's minging :!:
As i see it, there's little/no point in going to the gym, exercising, eating healthily etc. if you smoke. But i am very surprised by the number of people i see walking out of the gym and immediately lighting up a cig .

But anyway, back to the probability issue....

 

[rathcoole_exile]

I tossed a coin 500 times yesterday.
My results were 260 heads (52.0%), 240 tails (48.0%).

so are you saying that Heads are breaking out and we should go Long or that they're due for a Reversal ?

 

[TheBramble]

I tossed a coin 500 times yesterday.

Sounds promising.

 

[JTrader]

so are you saying that Heads are breaking out and we should go Long or that they're due for a Reversal ?

Only you can decide. Do the test for yourself .

 

[wasp]

I tossed a coin 500 times yesterday.

Did the coin seem, er, pleased? :whistling

 

[JTrader]

Did the coin seem, er, pleased? :whistling

OK -
I flipped a coin 500 times yesterday.:smart:.

 

[shadowninja]

Remember past performance is no indication of future performance.

 

[JTrader]

so are you saying that Heads are breaking out and we should go Long or that they're due for a Reversal ?

No, i still use my darts to determine whether i place a long or short trade on any given day.

This was just an experiment.

It would be interesting to hear other peoples results from their 500 coin flips experiment :idea:.

 

[trendie]

No, i still use my darts to determine whether i place a long or short trade on any given day.

This was just an experiment.

It would be interesting to hear other peoples results from their 500 coin flips experiment :idea:.

this subject was done-to-death a couple of years ago by myself, FetteredChinos (where is he these days?) and rols.

I think rols uses a digestive biscuit and dunking-in-tea system, and FC swears by Cillit-Bang.
I decided on using astrology at the time. (scorpio rising in uranus dont half sting caused me to abandon that.)

 

[JTrader]

And to think i started this thread with the intention of a serious discussion .

 

[JTrader]

this subject was done-to-death a couple of years ago by myself, FetteredChinos (where is he these days?) and rols.

What did you learn, and what conclusioons were drawn?

Thanks.

 

[Mathemagician]

And to think i started this thread with the intention of a serious discussion .

I'm sorry, that's probably my fault. Which questions/topics did you have in mind?

jj

 

[0007]

I tossed a coin 500 times yesterday.

What time frame were you using? And how did this compare to the back-testing?

 

[JTrader]

What about your technique for flipping - did it vary wildly or are you pretty consistent? Did you always start with the coin oriented a certain way? In short, is there anything YOU could have done that might lead to a bias?

(trying to get back 'on topic' like a good citizen).

GJ

GOOD QUESTION.

1. After each toss, i picked the coin up the same way, and re-flipped it - between my thumb, four finger and middle finger. Perhaps this led to bias?

2. If i had turned the landed coin over, then picked it up and re-flipped it, perhaps this would have made a difference.

Perhaps if i had split the 500 flips between techniques 1 & 2, 250 of each........

 

[barjon]

And to think i started this thread with the intention of a serious discussion .

post a chart, jt, post a chart :cheesy:

i bet we could all draw some pretty pictures on it to tell you how your next 500 will turn out

cheers

jon

 

[rols]

GOOD QUESTION.

1. After each toss, i picked the coin up the same way, and re-flipped it - between my thumb, four finger and middle finger. Perhaps this led to bias?

2. If i had turned the landed coin over, then picked it up and re-flipped it, perhaps this would have made a difference.

Perhaps if i had split the 500 flips between techniques 1 & 2, 250 of each........

Read this JT, it will answer all your questions

http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articles/probability_book/Chapter1.pdf

It's part of a 500 page doc, everything you ever wanted to know about coin tossing and much much more!

BTW I still think my Rich Tea trader method takes the biscuit...

 

[JTrader]

post a chart, jt, post a chart :cheesy:

i bet we could all draw some pretty pictures on it to tell you how your next 500 will turn out

cheers

jon

To be honest, one of the reasons for starting the thread was to get other people to take part themselves & compare results (and let other people share the donkey work!).