Could someone help me out.

I keep reading that when you toss a coin 10 times if it comes up heads all 10 times then there is still a 50:50 chance that on the 11th toss it could be heads or tails because the probability is still the same.

However when I study the law of streaks it shows me that for a sample size of 11 where the probability is 50:50 of a head or tail that the percentage of getting an 11th head in a row is 0.05%.

This means for that 11th coin toss the probability of getting a head is not 50% but 0.05%

In fact the law of streaks comes up with the following for a sample size of 11 tosses.

a streak of 2 heads = 88.62%

a streak of 4 heads = 27.25%

a streak of 6 heads = 5.47%

a streak of 8 heads = 0.98%

Therefore to say that every flick of the coin for any sample size is always a 50:50 probability is false because the law of streaks confirms that the chance of another head and another head and another head decreases as the streak of heads gets longer which is obviously why when you are going through a streak you expect at some point the streak to end.

Am I missing somethere here or do gurus repeat in parrot fashion a myth about the 50:50 being a constant in a coin toss scenario because unebelievably they fail to take into account the law of streaks. Hardly anyone talks about the law of streaks yet I am finding understanding the science and probability of streaks is like another layer of insight regarding probability.

The thing about its always 50:50 whether its the 2nd or 5th or 9th coin toss is normally used to address what is called gamblers fallacy. Where if you hit 5 heads in a row gamblers will increase their position size that the 6th toss will be a tail because they believe the streak has to end at some point.

Look forward to seeing your comments.

Mel