Too good to be true?

[Traderbeeb]

Hi, this is my first post here. I was sent these screenshots recently from a trading account and would value the thoughts of some other traders. Looks incredible - not sure about the risk (might be on the high side). I've been following Marks emails for a while and have no reason to doubt the authenticity of this ... (Just have to work out how to attach an image here!)

 

[sonofcablemonster]

Hi, this is my first post here. I was sent these screenshots recently from a trading account and would value the thoughts of some other traders. Looks incredible - not sure about the risk (might be on the high side). I've been following Marks emails for a while and have no reason to doubt the authenticity of this ... (Just have to work out how to attach an image here!)

post up a link then so we can all have a giggle.

 

[Liquid validity]

Hmm,losers larger than winners, could be just breakeven + tick or two skewing it.
More notable is the total lack of any winners larger than the losing trades though.

Implies one of two things - averaging down / waiting until onside,
or requires high accuracy.
I'm tending to go with the former...

 

[malaguti]

I'm with LV his highest losing trade is almost 3 times higher than is highest winning
As soon as he gets a bad run, he's f*****ed

 

[Traderbeeb]

Thanks for your first thoughts. Just realised that I've only posted one of the two pics I was trying to attach. Will try again.

 

[Liquid validity]

10K transfer at start of statement, would depend on whether that is opening
balance or just margin float.
Given the dates and trade frequency, it looks like that is the opening balance.
In other words, spreads & comms probably not a massive factor in % terms of
net profit.

If trade freq. was higher, could have thought it was tick scalping with costs
being a significant factor - hence losers larger as spread & comms will
usually have that effect (unless earning spread & discounted comms).

Looks even more likely to be averaging down, waiting until onside.
At best average stop wider than average target.
Worse, no stops at all...

 

[Traderbeeb]

Thanks again for such speedy feedback - will try to find out some more (very sparse info at moment) - these are up on the @tradersbulletin twitter account (don't seem to be on website anywhere)

 

[Liquid validity]

Apart from the fact that this trade sample isn't statistically significant, the main point here is that this is a perfect example of how not to trade !!!

While it may look impressive (to someone with no trading knowledge) in that he has grown his account by circa 50% in a month (lol), as the posters above point out, it is done by taking excessive risk.

A quick mental calculation tells me how few consecutive losers this guy needs to blow his account. Trust me it isn't many.

Edit: Let me make one thing clear. He has a trade risk of at least 10% of his initial account (LOL). His risk of ruin is huge. It is a mathematical certainty that he will blow up. F*ck I'd love to put put money on the fact that he will, I'd clean up.

+1 Two very important points I did not raise in my haste, sample size and trade risk,
more important than the points I raised as well.

 

[Mrs M]

There's clearly something on there limiting risk. Most of the losses look below 4%. Just those two nasty ones are around 7% - would want to know what went on there.

 

[Mrs M]

Ouch!

Well, I for one would be interested to hear what you find out traderbeeb.

 

[tar]

Hi, this is my first post here. I was sent these screenshots recently from a trading account and would value the thoughts of some other traders. Looks incredible - not sure about the risk (might be on the high side). I've been following Marks emails for a while and have no reason to doubt the authenticity of this ... (Just have to work out how to attach an image here!)

I wouldn't call that "Too Good" , however i would call it "Too short" , so he made money in one month and ? Whats the big deal ? It happens , the key word here is "consistency" . Plus this is just a screenshot , you don't know how he did in his other trades , i am sure he was a trader before that , in another words : "cherry picking" , that's why screen shots doesn't mean a thing .

However i disagree with others here re the "size of the losses" , i think that alone is irrelevant and it doesn't show if he is good or bad , you should look at that with the win rate , you can make your losses bigger than your winnings and still make money and you can make your winnings bigger than your losses and still lose money , ie : you can make your winnings 20 times bigger than your losses , but what if your win rate is just 1% ? so it depends . But i agree that risking 10% in just one trade shows that he is a loser .

 

[kalott]

Hi, this is my first post here. I was sent these screenshots recently from a trading account and would value the thoughts of some other traders. Looks incredible - not sure about the risk (might be on the high side). I've been following Marks emails for a while and have no reason to doubt the authenticity of this ... (Just have to work out how to attach an image here!)

no open trades with running profit/loss :whistling

 

[tar]

Your second paragraph is just a long-winded way of asking does he have +eV? A cursory glance shows (from the evidence here) that he does. However it's still a mathematical certainty that he will loose all his money. Can you see why?

Maybe the OP didn't know about "positive expectancy" so i took the long road . And i wouldn't say that the trader has it here , as stated b4 the trade sample is too small and meaningless ...

 

[DionysusToast]

I agree with Tar.

I don't think you can draw any conclusion just from the size of winners/losers.

 

[DionysusToast]

I don't think anyone was drawing any conclusions from that.

I already mentioned at the outset that "this trade sample isn't statistically significant", but assuming it was he has positive expectancy. (As everyone knows win ratio and win/loss size aren't by themselves the only important factors). However he will still go bust - this is a fact - not my opinion. Although I don't think most people here understand why.

So you aren't drawing any conclusions but you know he'll blow the account and you are super smart and are the only one that understands.

Gotcha.

 

[darktone]

Guys, be interested in your considered opinions on these trades.
Have started a new thread in respect for OP
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/discretionary-trading/183354-wot-u-think-o-these-then.html

 

[Traderbeeb]

Thanks for feedback. I've now gone back to tradersbulletin with some questions (prompted by the issues you've raised). Apparently the average risk is 50 points, to average reward of 20. Success rate he's aiming for is +75% (currently at 83% since June).
On a separate point - do you generally load your trading account with your full fund? From the comments in this thread, it sounds like people do this. Surely that must mean that our brokers are sitting on huge amounts of our cash? I know we don't get much for it in the bank, but I'd still rather keep it there than with my broker. (Obviously keeping enough in the account to cover margin)

 

[avano]

Apparently the average risk is 50 points, to average reward of 20. Success rate he's aiming for is +75% (currently at 83% since June).

I prefer than than the opposite if the high win rate can be maintained.

 

[darktone]

On a separate point - do you generally load your trading account with your full fund? From the comments in this thread, it sounds like people do this.

If you believe that our money/financial systems are sound and MF global was just a fluke then i guess you might.
Otherwise, definitely not. Give them the minimum amount that enables you trade your size and keep the rest in a place you consider to be safe

 

[LiquidGenius]

Doesn't tell you how many positions he's sitting on either, unless I'm not reading it correctly or fully. It's like on fxbook, there was a guy who had something like 400-500% gain, but his current equity was 25%! he was sitting on 75% loss! Hardly what I call a winning strategy.