Too good to be true?

Traderbeeb

Newbie
4 0
Hi, this is my first post here. I was sent these screenshots recently from a trading account and would value the thoughts of some other traders. Looks incredible - not sure about the risk (might be on the high side). I've been following Marks emails for a while and have no reason to doubt the authenticity of this ... (Just have to work out how to attach an image here!)
 
S

sonofcablemonster

0 0
Hi, this is my first post here. I was sent these screenshots recently from a trading account and would value the thoughts of some other traders. Looks incredible - not sure about the risk (might be on the high side). I've been following Marks emails for a while and have no reason to doubt the authenticity of this ... (Just have to work out how to attach an image here!)

post up a link then so we can all have a giggle.
 
L

Liquid validity

0 0
Hmm,losers larger than winners, could be just breakeven + tick or two skewing it.
More notable is the total lack of any winners larger than the losing trades though.

Implies one of two things - averaging down / waiting until onside,
or requires high accuracy.
I'm tending to go with the former...
 
M

member275544

0 0
I'm with LV his highest losing trade is almost 3 times higher than is highest winning
As soon as he gets a bad run, he's f*****ed
 

Traderbeeb

Newbie
4 0
Thanks for your first thoughts. Just realised that I've only posted one of the two pics I was trying to attach. Will try again.
 
L

Liquid validity

0 0
10K transfer at start of statement, would depend on whether that is opening
balance or just margin float.
Given the dates and trade frequency, it looks like that is the opening balance.
In other words, spreads & comms probably not a massive factor in % terms of
net profit.

If trade freq. was higher, could have thought it was tick scalping with costs
being a significant factor - hence losers larger as spread & comms will
usually have that effect (unless earning spread & discounted comms).

Looks even more likely to be averaging down, waiting until onside.
At best average stop wider than average target.
Worse, no stops at all...
 
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Traderbeeb

Newbie
4 0
Thanks again for such speedy feedback - will try to find out some more (very sparse info at moment) - these are up on the @tradersbulletin twitter account (don't seem to be on website anywhere)
 

DowJones

Experienced member
1,073 391
Apart from the fact that this trade sample isn't statistically significant, the main point here is that this is a perfect example of how not to trade !!!

While it may look impressive (to someone with no trading knowledge) in that he has grown his account by circa 50% in a month (lol), as the posters above point out, it is done by taking excessive risk.

A quick mental calculation tells me how few consecutive losers this guy needs to blow his account. Trust me it isn't many.

Edit: Let me make one thing clear. He has a trade risk of at least 10% of his initial account (LOL). His risk of ruin is huge. It is a mathematical certainty that he will blow up. F*ck I'd love to put put money on the fact that he will, I'd clean up.
 
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L

Liquid validity

0 0
Apart from the fact that this trade sample isn't statistically significant, the main point here is that this is a perfect example of how not to trade !!!

While it may look impressive (to someone with no trading knowledge) in that he has grown his account by circa 50% in a month (lol), as the posters above point out, it is done by taking excessive risk.

A quick mental calculation tells me how few consecutive losers this guy needs to blow his account. Trust me it isn't many.

Edit: Let me make one thing clear. He has a trade risk of at least 10% of his initial account (LOL). His risk of ruin is huge. It is a mathematical certainty that he will blow up. F*ck I'd love to put put money on the fact that he will, I'd clean up.

+1 Two very important points I did not raise in my haste, sample size and trade risk,
more important than the points I raised as well.
 
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Mrs M

Junior member
26 1
There's clearly something on there limiting risk. Most of the losses look below 4%. Just those two nasty ones are around 7% - would want to know what went on there.
 

DowJones

Experienced member
1,073 391

Ok, apologise for my intemperate comment, probably a little harsh...

My point being that so many people think that if they just whack a stop-loss on a trade they've got risk mgmt covered off. Not the case.
 

tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
Hi, this is my first post here. I was sent these screenshots recently from a trading account and would value the thoughts of some other traders. Looks incredible - not sure about the risk (might be on the high side). I've been following Marks emails for a while and have no reason to doubt the authenticity of this ... (Just have to work out how to attach an image here!)

I wouldn't call that "Too Good" , however i would call it "Too short" , so he made money in one month and ? Whats the big deal ? It happens , the key word here is "consistency" . Plus this is just a screenshot , you don't know how he did in his other trades , i am sure he was a trader before that , in another words : "cherry picking" , that's why screen shots doesn't mean a thing .

However i disagree with others here re the "size of the losses" , i think that alone is irrelevant and it doesn't show if he is good or bad , you should look at that with the win rate , you can make your losses bigger than your winnings and still make money and you can make your winnings bigger than your losses and still lose money , ie : you can make your winnings 20 times bigger than your losses , but what if your win rate is just 1% ? so it depends . But i agree that risking 10% in just one trade shows that he is a loser .
 

kalott

Established member
699 64
Hi, this is my first post here. I was sent these screenshots recently from a trading account and would value the thoughts of some other traders. Looks incredible - not sure about the risk (might be on the high side). I've been following Marks emails for a while and have no reason to doubt the authenticity of this ... (Just have to work out how to attach an image here!)


no open trades with running profit/loss :whistling
 
 
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