Tom Williams, volume spread analysis and Tradeguider

[OpenMind]

Porks, thanks. Good post.

Not entirely sure about how tests can occur at areas of previous supply. By definition, previsous supplies must have come in where an up move ended (otherwise obviously the supply wan't enough to drown the demand). Therefore by areas of past supplies, essentially we are talking about previous resistance levels (edit: or swing highs, or the points of the supply line the price bounced off). Can tests take place near resistance levels (i,e., after an up move)? I thoughts tests must always occur after a down move.

 

[VSATrader]

Tom Williams

Glad to see the subject reinstated. Tom Williams has been invited to speak on a live seminar online by the Eurex with tradeguider. I have asked the moderators about advertising this, but have had no reply as yet.


So I will post the details on my website, but it will be Thursday(I belive), if you don't mind putting up with TradeGuider charts and salespitch.

Regards Sebastian

 

[LevII]

if you don't mind putting up with TradeGuider charts and salespitch.

Sebastian,

I have owned Tradeguider since it was VSA. If anyone can show me how to use it to make a profit in the markets I will be eternally grateful.

 

[Porks]

Openmind,

The best thing I've got from Tom's methods is not the 'signal', but his way of looking behind the signal to the cause of the signal (supply and demand or (uniquely described by Tom) No Supply and No Demand).

When Tom says 'Its so obvious, its not difficult', I think that's because he has this great understanding of the underlying principals that mean if one thing (eg No supply) is shown, then another (rising prices) HAS to happen.
Of course the difficulty is that these indications come in different intensities. So you may have a bar showing No supply AT THAT TIME, but so what, supply may come in the next instant, making the signal seem 'WRONG'. But it's not wrong, it's just that things change moment by moment.

So it's all about balance, or more correctly, the imbalance of supply and demand.

And market memory as I call it(support and resistance), and trend.

And Tom reads this so well that its balantly obvious to him.

The market 'talks' to him, how cool is that ?

I think many traders have problems because whatever method they use, they have losses. And they then start to believe that maybe they are 'wrong', and it doesn't feel good.

But with VSA you're never wrong, you can't be, it's how markets work.

You may read it wrong, or things may have changed, but you're not wrong.

Liberating ?

Porks

 

[Porks]

LevII,

I agree with openmind that the Tradeguider (VSA) software is a great learning tool, but you don't need it to trade Tom's way.

I bought it ages ago to try and learn the VSA mehodology.

Did it help ? Yes.

Was it worth it ? Yes, I'd recommend it to anyone interested in learning to trade with VSA.

Do I need it to trade with ? No, any chart showing high,low,close, volume will do the trick.

It does have a great stock scanner though, and a few other interesting bells and whistles.


Porks

 

[Over the Top]

Porks, what you are suggesting is that systems are pretty much useless and that the real skill is in learning to read the market yourself and that it is something that cannot be systemised (?) or codified. Hope I've interpreted your comments correctly.

If that's the case, does that mean all these systems worth thousands of pounds are not only virtually, but in reality, quite worthless?

Why would these people have gone to all the trouble of selling these products unless they really worked?

Perplexed.

 

[Porks]

I'd ask the question the other way

'Why would people go to the trouble of selling these products if they really worked' ?

VSA is not worthless, neither are other trading methods. But I don't think any method will make you successful on its own.

Don't get me wrong, the methods you use to select trades and give you an 'edge' are important.

But I think your skill as a trader is more important.

For example, with a little practice you can probably walk across a length of rope suspended over a 5 foot drop.

But try doing it over a 100ft drop, even with a net.

I'm going dizzy just thinking about it.


Porks

 

[RUDEBOY]

The reason people sell anything is to make money. There are a lot of mugs out there, one born every minute as they say. I personally don't have a problem with the people who exploit mugs. Why not? It's an evolutionary thing. Fair game.

 

[LevII]

Porks, what you are suggesting is that systems are pretty much useless and that the real skill is in learning to read the market yourself and that it is something that cannot be systemised (?) or codified. Hope I've interpreted your comments correctly.

If that's the case, does that mean all these systems worth thousands of pounds are not only virtually, but in reality, quite worthless?

Why would these people have gone to all the trouble of selling these products unless they really worked?

Perplexed.

Dosh my dear chap, dosh.

 

[badtrader]

The reason people sell anything is to make money. There are a lot of mugs out there, one born every minute as they say. I personally don't have a problem with the people who exploit mugs. Why not? It's an evolutionary thing. Fair game.

Maybe I should sell my forex method then. anyone want it,.You wont find anything else like it. It works $4,995 special offer :cheesy:

 

[RUDEBOY]

Hello, BT. You never know, with the correct marketing you could be beating the mugs off with with a s****y stick in 12 months time.

 

[badtrader]

Hello, BT. You never know, with the correct marketing you could be beating the mugs off with with a s****y stick in 12 months time.

You can do the marketing for me. I give you 10% of the profits for you time. If I prove the forex method live for 2 weeks it will go up to $20,095, So get it now for the barging price of $4,995 when offers last :cheesy:

 

[RUDEBOY]

10%? The marketing is the important bit. It doesn't matter if your system actually works, just as long as you make the prospective buyer of the product feel like they are going to be rubbing shoulders with the likes of Bernie Eccleston on the big chip tables in Monte Carlo. Tell you what, let's promise them the yatch that every big timer also owns. There, now that is what you call a real mug magnet system. What shall we call it, the San Tropez system. We could have a little gimmicky saying on the box......"Are you tired and weary with being in a dead end job and living in Birmingham? Don't be! Why not trade your way to San Tropez! It's easy with the new San Tropez trading system.......blah blah blah".

 

[Porks]

Key VSA principal 1:

'Weakness appears on up bars, Strength appears on down bars'

Key VSA principal 2:

Volume is activity, professional activity. Our (the herd) trading activity is so small it hardly registers in the volume figure. Only professional activity is large enough to be visible. So if you see high activity (volume bars), ask yourself 'why are the professionals trading here'.

Key VSA principal 3:

If the market works on supply and demand, it must also work on No supply and No demand. If there's little demand(activity,price spread) at a price level, ask yourself, 'why are the pro's not interested in trading here'

Again this is my understanding of VSA,

Are Tom's principals correct and/or useful ?

Porks

 

[Porks]

Rudeboy,

You're not far off, but remember its all about message to market match.

Remember cult-leader training 101 (I'm sure Socy was one the course, only joking ) :

'People will do anything for those who-

Encourage their dreams
justify their failures
allay their fears
confirm their suspicions
help them throw rocks at their enemies'

So how about

Pre - Head:
'If you're Losing In the Stock Market, Its Not Your Fault !'
Headline
'Dejected Wall Street Insider Reveals How To Turn The Tables On The Scumbags Who Run The Stock Market So You Can Quickly And Easily Beat Them At Their Own Game To Trade With Near 100% Accuracy, While Sitting At The Kitchen Table In Your Underwear With Nothing More Than An Internet Connection, A Cup Of Coffee And A Walnut Whip'


Porks

 

[chump]

I was holding out until you got to the walnut whip

 

[RUDEBOY]

"......we must be absolutely barmy! We're giving it away at the incredibly low price of $4999.99. Get your friend one for Christmas too, and you can have them both for a 'i must be in heaven' price of $7499.99. Hurry though, it's a limited stock....", must be stated somewhere.

 

[fxmarkets]

hmmm, is there a money back guarentee though?? must be.... ohh... how about a few sports cars on the box too.... and some of those white teeth things. ... and the extra bonus bundle offer ... how to increase your size in less than a week..... ohhh and as a final meltdow madness gift a pair of your very own brown fur lined ankle zip up boots (all weather non slip sole as standard, also incredibly light and flexible too)... . who's buyin...? SOLD !

 

[RUDEBOY]

Quite funny for you, FX. I can imagine all the San Tropez System mugs wearing thier fur lined zip up ankle boots at some 'Now That's What I Call Trading' seminar 6 months after recieving 'STS' or S hi T S as it could become know in the trading world.

 

[badtrader]

A guy sent me a message, saying I will buy you method I have seen you post you trades on Live cable. and you are very good.I told him im just kidding LOL Wow there is one born every min. :cheesy:


The funny thing is I think he is serious

:cheesy: