Todays Dow entries

Skimbleshanks

1
2,325 16
From having a look at your chart, there was one big head & shoulders. You got confused at the top of the right shoulder. I've attached the same chart, showing just price bars, as it is perhaps easier to see the big pattern.

It was Alan Farley who said that from time to time you should stand on the other side of the room to look at the big picture.

At the top of the right shoulder you also had a doji, which is a sign of indecision and often a turning point.

As to all those wiggly lines at the bottom of your chart, goodness only knows! lol
 

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stoploss please

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Hi Skim

Thanks for coming back. I was not so much confused as sweating on my short position. You are right about taking in the big picture.


As for my wiggle lines. They have been an emotional crutch which has kept me in trades when the self doubt always sets in. They have actually been a good friend to me. On this occasion, I lost a bit of focus.

Thanks again
Andy
 

stoploss please

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Skim

I take it that you only use price bars, pattern recognition, trend lines and support and resistance. You do not use MAs or any other derived indicator.

Your good. Nice ears too.
 

Skimbleshanks

1
2,325 16
Yes, you've summed up my trading - price bars, patterns, support/resistance - and I also use volume bars. Nowt else.

So I'm pretty good at spotting patterns - there was also another small head and shoulders within the head of the h&s I've annotated above. They're everywhere!

The Dow today has finished at the end of an inverted h&s, which may bode well for a continuation upwards at the start of tomorrow's trading. The chart below is today's Dow on a 5 minute chart, with the two h&s patterns:
 

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stoploss please

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Thanks Skim for this. Today was a bit choppy for me but I managed to survive without getting burnt. I am sure the market will get me tomorrow.

One question. Do wait for the break out to happen or do you try and get in early.

Cheers
Andy
 

Skimbleshanks

1
2,325 16
Breakouts used to work a treat - but not any more. Some work, many don't. The ones which work are usually the breakouts from wave 2 going into wave 3. I always try and get in early at the turn, usually at a HH if going long. When the HH works across more than one timeframe, then it's usually a very good subsequent move.

If you are in early, then you can sit and watch the breakout and see whether you need to jump ship with your profit if it turns out to be a false breakout, or stay onboard to ride another leg up. It's harder to be able to judge if you've only just got in the trade.

Another reason for avoiding getting in at breakouts is that my risk is significantly higher. I like small risk trades, naturally.

But I did get a little singe today on one trade - without thinking I reacted to a breakout, and paid the price. It was unlike me to do that, but my mind was elsewhere and I stupidily went in on impulse. It was a false breakout, and my risk was much higher than usual, and I lost 3 points. LOL
 

stoploss please

Established member
780 10
Hi Skim

I take it you are using 3 and 5 minute time frames for cross confirmation and enter off the 3.

How about fib. I look at fib both on a macro scale and also on individual bars. For instance, that long down bar at 15.10 was partially retrace by an attempt at a piercing white line. However, this bar failed even to make 38% retracement. This put me in a shorting mood. Would you have done the same.

Cheers
Andy
 

Skimbleshanks

1
2,325 16
I only use the 50%; just can't be bothered with all the rest. It's good to use on trends, to know whereabouts the pullback will come to so that you can be sitting ready to jump onboard.

You're quite right about fibs on that long bar, but I do all mine by eye, and bear in mind the length of the bar, the volume and the way the bar formed.

I use 5 min and 10 min - anything less is far too fast for me. I used to be hooked on the 1 min, and found it an age for a 5 min bar to complete. How I find the 5 min fast and it's a race to get a pot of tea going inside a 5 min bar!
 

stoploss please

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780 10
Skim

Its incredible that every oneI have spoken do, trade in a style that suits them and with set ups that they have devised.

My problem is I do not always see the bigger picture were it comes to trend lines. I am gonna get me one of those huge home cinema TV flat screen thingys as stick my charts on that.
 

Skimbleshanks

1
2,325 16
You've just stated the secret to trading - finding a style which suits you, and knowing it well enough.

Patterns are a lot easier to see on a bar chart, with the bars scrunched together quite closely. Then stand on the other side of the room and squint at the chart - they're blindingly obvious when you do it like that!
 
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