Timing

Votke2310

Junior member
13 0
typically I would set my stop loss at 3% and would have sold at $8.31 but I was trying to broaden my risk tolerance to continue with the upswing because i kept repeating the same mistake over and over. I tried using the VWAP and moving Averages but when Im down $1000 on the day I sold, i was shooting for a 20% target price. It was up 15% on the morning volume tripled and a low float so I expected it to move and it did. the only thing I didn't take into consideration was teh ATR which was 2.76 until after the fact
 

dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,952 1,241
What data have you collected that provide you with the likelihood that an entry at $8.56 would achieve your objectives?
 

Votke2310

Junior member
13 0
What data have you collected that provide you with the likelihood that an entry at $8.56 would achieve your objectives?
I have no idea? what data should I have collected? I thought a 25% price increase with high volume low float and two green 5 minute bars over the vwap and moving averages was a good start ( clearly i was wrong)
 

dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,952 1,241
In order to succeed at trading, you must have an edge. Your edge begins with the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular market behavior offers a level of predictability that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time. To get it, you have to know exactly what you're looking for and what to do with it once you've found it.

Without a plan, you'll have no way of monitoring your performance beyond those swings between self-pity and self-congratulation. Without a plan, you'll never break out of the couldawouldashoulda trading session review, if you do such reviews at all (most just try to block the session out, or exercise their selective memory skills in the event that the session just happened to go well and persuade themselves that they are doing so much better than they really are).

Without a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable plan and the discipline to follow it, you will never be able to trade emotionlessly (and without such a plan, there's nothing to be disciplined about). Granted that with such a plan you will have to abandon that adrenaline rush that you may have been living for, but at some point this side of bankruptcy one must decide whether he values the rush more than making money. You'd be surprised how many people choose the former.

With a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable plan, if you follow it, trading will be much simpler, particularly as your plan will prevent you from taking trades you shouldn't be taking. Unless of course you ignore it. All the trading decisions will have been made ahead of time, so there are no chinks through which fear nor resentment nor anger nor any of the rest of it can insinuate themselves. All you'll have to do is trade.

Db
 
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Votke2310

Junior member
13 0
In order to succeed at trading, you must have an edge. Your edge begins with the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular market behavior offers a level of predictability that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time. To get it, you have to know exactly what you're looking for and what to do with it once you've found it.

Without a plan, you'll have no way of monitoring your performance beyond those swings between self-pity and self-congratulation. Without a plan, you'll never break out of the couldawouldashoulda trading session review, if you do such reviews at all (most just try to block the session out, or exercise their selective memory skills in the event that the session just happened to go well and persuade themselves that they are doing so much better than they really are).

Without a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable plan and the discipline to follow it, you will never be able to trade emotionlessly (and without such a plan, there's nothing to be disciplined about). Granted that with such a plan you will have to abandon that adrenaline rush that you may have been living for, but at some point this side of bankruptcy one must decide whether he values the rush more than making money. You'd be surprised how many people choose the former.

With a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable plan, if you follow it, trading will be much simpler, particularly as your plan will prevent you from taking trades you shouldn't be taking. Unless of course you ignore it. All the trading decisions will have been made ahead of time, so there are no chinks through which fear nor resentment nor anger nor any of the rest of it can insinuate themselves. All you'll have to do is trade.

Db
could you educate me and help me learn a trading plan? I know different things work for different people but I would like to be able to implement a plan that can be tested! I'm just reading books and trying to see what works and clearly am not going down the right path
 

dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,952 1,241
A system consists of (a) a set of rules that you use to select profitable positions and (b) a set of rules that you use to manage the trade once you're in it (whether you call it a system, a method, a strategy, a plan, a scheme, an approach, a procedure, or a modus operandi is not as important as sitting down and doing it). You've made a start with "a 25% price increase with high volume low float and two green 5 minute bars over the vwap and moving averages," but now you have to test it and keep detailed records of each trade, successes and failures, including simple statistical summaries of what you did and the results. Using "replay" will enable you to collect the data much faster.

The following is an illustration of "the scientific method". You'll get to know it very well.

266165
 

Nowler

Established member
896 71
could you educate me and help me learn a trading plan? I know different things work for different people but I would like to be able to implement a plan that can be tested! I'm just reading books and trying to see what works and clearly am not going down the right path
May I just ask something... :)
If you do not have a plan, why put so much money on the line?
Even if you are filthy rich, what's the logic in choosing to trade in the thousands as opposed to single digit or double digit?

I'm not having a go at you.. most of us do it to some degree at one point or another.
But if you asked yourself that question, could you answer it?
And if you can answer it, do you still feel it's the correct course of action so early into your trading journey?
 
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