Timing

Votke2310

Junior member
13 0
typically I would set my stop loss at 3% and would have sold at $8.31 but I was trying to broaden my risk tolerance to continue with the upswing because i kept repeating the same mistake over and over. I tried using the VWAP and moving Averages but when Im down $1000 on the day I sold, i was shooting for a 20% target price. It was up 15% on the morning volume tripled and a low float so I expected it to move and it did. the only thing I didn't take into consideration was teh ATR which was 2.76 until after the fact
 

dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,952 1,244
What data have you collected that provide you with the likelihood that an entry at $8.56 would achieve your objectives?
 

Votke2310

Junior member
13 0
What data have you collected that provide you with the likelihood that an entry at $8.56 would achieve your objectives?
I have no idea? what data should I have collected? I thought a 25% price increase with high volume low float and two green 5 minute bars over the vwap and moving averages was a good start ( clearly i was wrong)
 

dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,952 1,244
In order to succeed at trading, you must have an edge. Your edge begins with the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular market behavior offers a level of predictability that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time. To get it, you have to know exactly what you're looking for and what to do with it once you've found it.

Without a plan, you'll have no way of monitoring your performance beyond those swings between self-pity and self-congratulation. Without a plan, you'll never break out of the couldawouldashoulda trading session review, if you do such reviews at all (most just try to block the session out, or exercise their selective memory skills in the event that the session just happened to go well and persuade themselves that they are doing so much better than they really are).

Without a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable plan and the discipline to follow it, you will never be able to trade emotionlessly (and without such a plan, there's nothing to be disciplined about). Granted that with such a plan you will have to abandon that adrenaline rush that you may have been living for, but at some point this side of bankruptcy one must decide whether he values the rush more than making money. You'd be surprised how many people choose the former.

With a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable plan, if you follow it, trading will be much simpler, particularly as your plan will prevent you from taking trades you shouldn't be taking. Unless of course you ignore it. All the trading decisions will have been made ahead of time, so there are no chinks through which fear nor resentment nor anger nor any of the rest of it can insinuate themselves. All you'll have to do is trade.

Db
 
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Votke2310

Junior member
13 0
In order to succeed at trading, you must have an edge. Your edge begins with the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular market behavior offers a level of predictability that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time. To get it, you have to know exactly what you're looking for and what to do with it once you've found it.

Without a plan, you'll have no way of monitoring your performance beyond those swings between self-pity and self-congratulation. Without a plan, you'll never break out of the couldawouldashoulda trading session review, if you do such reviews at all (most just try to block the session out, or exercise their selective memory skills in the event that the session just happened to go well and persuade themselves that they are doing so much better than they really are).

Without a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable plan and the discipline to follow it, you will never be able to trade emotionlessly (and without such a plan, there's nothing to be disciplined about). Granted that with such a plan you will have to abandon that adrenaline rush that you may have been living for, but at some point this side of bankruptcy one must decide whether he values the rush more than making money. You'd be surprised how many people choose the former.

With a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable plan, if you follow it, trading will be much simpler, particularly as your plan will prevent you from taking trades you shouldn't be taking. Unless of course you ignore it. All the trading decisions will have been made ahead of time, so there are no chinks through which fear nor resentment nor anger nor any of the rest of it can insinuate themselves. All you'll have to do is trade.

Db
could you educate me and help me learn a trading plan? I know different things work for different people but I would like to be able to implement a plan that can be tested! I'm just reading books and trying to see what works and clearly am not going down the right path
 

dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,952 1,244
A system consists of (a) a set of rules that you use to select profitable positions and (b) a set of rules that you use to manage the trade once you're in it (whether you call it a system, a method, a strategy, a plan, a scheme, an approach, a procedure, or a modus operandi is not as important as sitting down and doing it). You've made a start with "a 25% price increase with high volume low float and two green 5 minute bars over the vwap and moving averages," but now you have to test it and keep detailed records of each trade, successes and failures, including simple statistical summaries of what you did and the results. Using "replay" will enable you to collect the data much faster.

The following is an illustration of "the scientific method". You'll get to know it very well.

266165
 

Nowler

Established member
980 81
could you educate me and help me learn a trading plan? I know different things work for different people but I would like to be able to implement a plan that can be tested! I'm just reading books and trying to see what works and clearly am not going down the right path
May I just ask something... :)
If you do not have a plan, why put so much money on the line?
Even if you are filthy rich, what's the logic in choosing to trade in the thousands as opposed to single digit or double digit?

I'm not having a go at you.. most of us do it to some degree at one point or another.
But if you asked yourself that question, could you answer it?
And if you can answer it, do you still feel it's the correct course of action so early into your trading journey?
 
Last edited:

fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,507 72
State Department sent this communique to the Plunge Protection Team at 0900 hours .............

American soldier down behind enemy lines sends SOS with code word, "TIMING"
This SOS is meant to be responded to by our top Timing specialist, FIBO. Send at once, mission code name, "Timing"

Known dangers in prisoner camp where our American is being held:
Americans are at best, tolerated. All present especially one will ban permanently the Fibo if cott
Have they fired 6 shots or only 5? No data.
Known Edge and advantage to Fibo:
Aging lions, slow, asleep, there is no record of any ever having made a real kill even when in prime

Bring our boy back

Goodluck

DOW/PPT
 

fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,507 72
Sir(s): My report

Mission accomplished. They were asleep as expected. Freeing our boy was easy. What's amazing is that our boy gave them a chart which clearly showed his dilemma. His question therefore was perfect. But their response was only in dissertation mode as usual. Our boy went into despair. Not no more. Got him back to safety with his foot firmly on rung #1 of the ladder that he will ascend over time to arrive at his final destination. He's on his way.


266962











266963
 
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fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,507 72
Sir(s):

Thank you kindly.

Now we wait for the complaints to permanently ban Fibo to pour in.

As this aspect of my Life is not up to me, I've asked the Higher Consciousness for Help that the policeman who receives the complaints is this fellow:







Fibo
 

correct23

Member
88 4
there are things that can make a trader better at timing the entrance and exit of a trade, every trader should find what works for him. for me works using Bookmap heatmap. with the liquidity level combined with technical analysis I can see where is a good level of rejection or support, and when a reversal is happening.
like in this $TNAV trade I took on friday, I sew that 6.80 level is crucial
 

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fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,507 72
Other than experience, is there a way to increase my skills at timing the trades for day trading? I'm about 6 months in to my very unprofitable trading career and I keep executing the same issue... I'm picking the right stocks and buying, they end up correcting or reacting and hitting my stop loss at 3% and than shooting up so i "usually" miss out on the uptrend. is there any way to correct this? It happened twice to me today on ENPH and AMD


op gets an A+++ for not being a poser. Glad I tried to rescue this trader. EXEMPT from records

Thread title, "Timing" needs a very specific magnificent component to make it truly shine. That be "serendipity" ............... Fibo has this in spades. Where does Serendipity come from? THE MAN. Introduce yourself to him, its not a religious thing, gots nothing to do with religion. THE MAN knows that Fibo knows about serendipity so he sends all messages in this manner thereby placing both me and HISSELF in a games condition - a thoroughly enjoyable one and profitable to boot.
 

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