Tifia Daily Market Analytics

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
XAU/USD: demand for gold will continue
11/04/2018
Current dynamics

The focus of traders today will be the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the minutes from the March Fed meeting. At this meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to increase the range of the key interest rate by a quarter of percentage points to 1.5% -1.75% and raised the forecast for the growth of the US economy for the next two years.
"The outlook for the economy has improved in recent months", the Fed said in an official statement following the meeting. The central bank expects GDP growth of 2.7% this year and 2.4% in 2019 against earlier forecasts of 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively, and predict annual inflation at 2,1% next year against 2% in the previous forecast. Investors were disappointed that the Fed confirmed the intention to raise another 2 times the rate this year. However, the new forecasts published after the meeting indicated that the Fed could accelerate the rate of rate hikes in order to cool down the economy after 2019. And this is now the main intrigue - how high is the probability that the Fed will make 4 rate increases this year, rather than 3, as it was planned earlier. In a statement by the Fed following the results of the March meeting, it was said that the risks appear to be approximately balanced.
Nevertheless, there was one significant negative factor. The leaders of the Federal Reserve took a cautious approach to the introduction of duties and other restrictions on trade with China. Investors now need to know how the Fed will react in the event of increased tensions.
It is likely that the number of supporters of a more balanced approach with regard to the rate of further rate increases may increase. It is characteristic that the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan said on Monday that this year he expects two more interest rate hikes. At the same time, he believes that in the coming years the rate of rate hikes will decrease due to a slowdown in the economy.
The aging of the population, the slow increase in labor resources, the slow growth of productivity, and the high level of public debt can become deterrents to GDP growth in the next few years, the president of the Fed-Dallas said. For this reason, the Fed should raise rates "gradually and patiently", he added.
On Monday, the Budget Office of the US Congress published its forecast, according to which the state budget deficit by 2020 will exceed the $ 1 trillion mark.
The recent tax cuts and the increase in budget expenditures create prerequisites for the growth of the federal budget deficit. In addition, the growing deficit of the US foreign trade balance, coupled with the trade conflict with China, makes investors cautious about buying dollars. The dollar remains under pressure, despite the Fed's rate hike.
Under normal conditions, tightening monetary policy of the Fed strengthens the dollar and leads to a decrease in gold quotations.
But at the moment, the dollar is getting cheaper, and gold is rising in price, as geopolitical risks, connected with the prospect of new trade wars, are brought to the forefront.
Perhaps, the trade conflict will not be aggravated, but it is too early to say about its completion. Volatility and negative dynamics of the stock market will continue, at least until the end of May, given the planned introduction of customs duties in the US. Against this background, the demand for gold will continue.

Support levels: 1335.00, 1330.00, 1310.00, 1300.00, 1277.00, 1268.00
Resistance levels: 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

Trade recommendations

Sell Stop 1339.00. Stop-Loss 1355.00. Take-Profit 1335.00, 1330.00, 1310.00, 1300.00
Buy Stop 1355.00. Stop-Loss 1339.00. Take-Profit 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00


 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
USD/CHF: amid positive macro statistics
12/04/2018
Current dynamics

Against the background of positive macro statistics, received on Wednesday from the US, and after the publication of the minutes from the March meeting of the Fed, the dollar strengthens against the defensive assets such as gold, yen, franc.
As follows from published protocols, the leaders of the Fed are more confident in achieving a target inflation rate of 2% during the year, confirming plans for a gradual increase in interest rates. At the December meeting, the leaders of the Fed planned to raise the interest rate in 2018, and they confirmed two more rate hikes.
In the past year, the drop in unemployment was the argument for higher rates. Since October 2017, unemployment is 4.1%, remaining near the lowest level in 18 years. The leaders also said that the weakening of inflation is temporary, and inflationary pressures have grown in recent months. As reported on Wednesday by the Ministry of Labor, the basic consumer price index in the US rose in March by 2.1% compared to a year earlier. This is the strongest growth in the index since February 2017.
The dollar also replayed a part of losses on the publication on Tuesday of the producer price index (PPI), which in March rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month, which may speak of increasing inflationary pressure in the economy.
Now investors will pay attention to the fact that the basic index of prices for personal consumption expenditures, which the Fed prefers, in March grew by 1.9% compared to March 2017. The Ministry of Commerce will publish it later this month. In February, the growth of the index was 1.6% (with the target level of 2.0%).
This index is preferred for the Fed in determining the level of inflation. But if it turns out to be worse than the forecast, then the probability of 4 rate increases this year will significantly decrease, which will have a negative impact on the dollar.
From the news for today, we are waiting for publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data on the number of new (initial) applications for unemployment benefits in the US over the past week. The result above the expected indicates a weak labor market, which has a negative impact on the US dollar, and vice versa. Previous value of 242 000, forecast - 230 000, which should positively affect the dollar in case of confirmation of the forecast.

Support levels: 0.9610, 0.9600, 0.9575, 0.9520, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300
Resistance levels: 0.9640, 0.9690, 0.9745, 0.9810, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9650. Stop-Loss 0.9590. Take-Profit 0.9690, 0.9745, 0.9810, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000
Sell Stop 0.9590. Stop-Loss 0.9650. Take-Profit 0.9575, 0.9520, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300


 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
AUD/USD: commodity currencies increased against the backdrop of risks with raw material supplies
13/04/2018
Current dynamics

As part of his speech on Wednesday, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that "the central bank needs good reasons to change its policy". Earlier this month, when the RBA kept the interest rate at 1.5%, Philip Lowe said that "it is likely that inflation will remain weak, reflecting the slow growth in labor costs and high competition in the retail sector". In his opinion, the RBA will not follow other central banks of the world, which are prone to tightening policies.
Economists predict that official inflation data, expected later in April, will show a 0.4% increase in consumer prices in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter and 1.8% compared with the first quarter of 2017, when this rate of core inflation will be slightly higher.
Taking into account the attention that the RBA assigns to achieving the target inflation range (2% -3%), an increase in interest rates is not expected in the coming months.
This is a negative factor for the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, on Friday the Australian dollar is growing, including in cross-pairs and against the US dollar.
Its strengthening is supported by the growth of world commodity prices against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, as well as positive data on China's foreign trade balance, which is Australia's closest and largest trading partner.
Last Thursday, oil prices reached new three-year highs due to increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a decrease in oil production in OPEC and Russia.
WTI futures for NYMEX rose 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $ 67.07 per barrel. Futures for aluminum in the first half of the European session traded with an increase of 1.75%, at 2323.50 dollars per ton. Over the last week, aluminum prices have added 13.1%. Copper futures rose 0.54% to 6859 dollars per ton.
Australia is the world's largest supplier of primary commodities; primarily iron ore, liquefied gas, coal, which accounts for 10% of the country's total foreign trade, oil and oil products, and gold.
China accounts for 25% of Australia's total exports and 13% of imports to Australia.
According to official data released on Friday, the surplus of foreign trade in March was 326.1 billion yuan, and imports to China increased by 14.4%, including through the importation of raw materials into the country. Australia as a supplier of raw materials to China is at the forefront.
Despite the fact that the RBA intends to maintain a soft monetary policy, as the RBA said on Wednesday Philip Lowe, the Australian dollar is growing.
Even though the different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia is the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening AUD / USD, today AUD / USD is growing. Risks associated with interruptions in the supply of primary commodities to the world market are coming to the fore.

Support levels: 0.7760, 0.7690, 0.7645, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7820, 0.7840, 0.7900, 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7750. Stop-Loss 0.7810. Take-Profit 0.7700, 0.7690, 0.7645, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7830. Stop-Loss 0.7750. Take-Profit 0.7840, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000



 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
S&P500: the intensity has been asleep; investors switched attention to economic data
16/04/2018
Current dynamics

In recent weeks, investors have been alarmed by geopolitical tensions, by lower than expected macroeconomic data, and trade conflicts.
Investors sighed with relief after the air strikes on Syria, inflicted on Saturday, did not lead to a serious aggravation of the conflict and not escalate into a large-scale military conflict. A representative of the Pentagon said that a single wave of blows has been completed so far. President Donald Trump on Saturday wrote on Twitter that "the task is completed".
The yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2.851% from 2.828%. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the other 6 major currencies, is declining from the opening of the trading day, dropping from 89.50 to 89.28 at the beginning of the US trading session.
Uncertainty may increase again, but the darkest scenario has not yet been realized, which allowed the risky assets to recover. Investors turned their attention to economic data and corporate reporting. On Monday, traders are waiting for new US data on retail sales. Retail sales are expected to grow by + 0.4% in March (against a decline of -0.3% in February and the previous forecast release of -0.1%), which should positively affect the US stock indexes when confirming the forecast.
Volatility in the stock markets could rise sharply on Tuesday during the Asian session, when at 02:00 (GMT) Chinese data on economic growth (GDP for the first quarter) and the March business activity statistics and industrial production, as well as the level of retail sales will be published.
This will be particularly reflected in the dynamics of Asian stock indices, but will affect the US indices as well.
Also it is worth paying attention to today's speech by representatives of the Fed (at 16:00 and 17:15 GMT). If they touch on the topic of monetary policy in the US, then volatility in the dynamics of US stock indices will grow (in the short term).

Support levels: 2650.0, 2645.0, 2630.0, 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Resistance levels: 2680.0, 2700.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2645.0. Stop-Loss 2685.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Buy Stop 2685.0. Stop-Loss 2645.0. Objectives 2700.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0


 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
GBP/USD: pound declined despite rising wages
17/04/2018
Current dynamics

Despite the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) at the beginning of the European session indicating that the British labor market is in good shape, the pound declined after the publication of the data. Earlier, the GBP / USD reached its highest level in 22 months at 1.4375.
The average hourly earnings of Britons (without premiums) for the period December-February increased by 2.8%, which means that real wages increased by 0.1%. This was the fastest growth rate of wages since 2015. Unemployment fell to 4.2% against 4.3% for the period November-January, the lowest level since 1975. The data indicate that the UK labor market remains healthy.
Probably, the presented data will strengthen expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates to 0.75% at its May meeting (May 10). Earlier, the Bank of England signaled that in the coming years it plans to raise rates three or more times to contain inflation.
Despite the current growth, the pound is undervalued, which implies its further possible growth.
In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in a decade to contain inflation. Recently, central bank officials signaled that the rate may need to be raised earlier than originally expected. This is a strong factor in favor of strengthening the pound.
Nevertheless, there are still a lot of uncertainties in the issue of leaving the UK from the EU, and the Teresa May government is weak, and the Bank of England against this background may postpone the issue of tightening monetary policy.
Today, the focus of traders will be the publication of a block of important macro data for the US at 12:30 (GMT), and between 13:15 and 17:10, several members of the FOMC (Williams, Quorles, Harker, Evans) are scheduled to perform. If they touch upon the subject of the monetary policy of the Fed and speak in favor of faster rates of tightening of the policy of the American central bank, the dollar may strengthen for a short time, including in the GBP / USD. The tougher the rhetoric of their speeches, the stronger the dollar will be strengthened.
Support levels: 1.4302, 1.4263, 1.4205, 1.4100, 1.4075, 1.3970, 1.3725, 1.3600
Resistance levels: 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760

Trading Scenarios

Buy Limit 1.4305, 1.4265. Stop-Loss 1.4225. Take-Profit 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760
Buy Stop 1.1.4350. Stop-Loss 1.4285. Take-Profit 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760


 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
Brent: price growth has resumed
18/04/2018
Current dynamics

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was published on Tuesday evening, oil reserves in the US fell by 1 million barrels in the week of April 7 - 13, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels and 0.854 million barrels, respectively.
Against the background of forecasts of the stocks falling in the US, oil prices rose on Wednesday. Futures for Brent crude at ICE recently rose in price by 0.68%, to 72.00 dollars per barrel. Futures for oil WTI on NYMEX added 0,83%, to 67.00 dollars per barrel.
On Wednesday (14:30 GMT), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish an official report on reserves. Economists expect the fall in oil and oil products stocks in the week of April 7 - April by 1.429 million barrels against the growth of 3.306 million barrels the previous week.
In anticipation of a positive outlook for oil reserves and after the API report, the spot price for Brent crude rose at the beginning of the European session to $ 72.00 per barrel. In the oil market there is again an increased interest of investors in purchases.
At the end of last week, oil prices reached the highest level in more than three years. At the weekend, a coalition led by the United States struck a missile strike on Syria, which increased geopolitical risks, as well as the risks of possible interruptions in the supply of oil from the Asian region.
Coupled with the likelihood of the US imposing sanctions against Iran, such a situation could lead to a crisis in the supply of oil. Iran is the largest supplier of oil, possessing about 10% of all the world's proven oil reserves. And if sanctions are imposed on Iran again, the country will not be able to supply oil to the world market, which inevitably entails a decrease in the world supply of oil and, consequently, a rise in prices for it.
As you know, OPEC and 10 other oil-producing countries, including Russia, have reduced total production by 1.8 million barrels a day since the beginning of last year. The term of the agreement, aimed at limiting the excess of the world supply, expires at the end of 2018.
On Friday in Saudi Arabia, OPEC ministers will discuss the possibility of maintaining oil production restrictions next year.
Last month, the media reported that OPEC intends next year to continue joint efforts to reduce the supply of oil.
If the parties to the production cut-off agreement decide to extend the agreement for the next year under this agreement, even the growing oil production in the US will not be able to influence the prospect of further price increases. According to Baker Hughes data, published last Friday, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US increased by 7 units to 815 units. According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA),
The United States increased oil production by 1.34 million barrels per day in comparison with last March, ranking second in the world in terms of oil production after Russia, outstripping Saudi Arabia.
Geopolitical risks that can lead to supply disruptions, as well as OPEC's intention to extend the agreement on limiting oil production, increase the pressure on oil prices towards their further growth. Even despite the growth of oil production in the US, the world oil supply will not be able to cover the demand for it in this case.
As the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrui, who is the OPEC president at the time, said earlier, OPEC is now "more concerned about the supply shortage than its excess". Rally oil prices, it seems, is not going to end.
Support levels: 70.75, 70.00, 68.50, 66.70, 66.00, 65.00, 63.00, 62.40, 60.00, 57.50
Resistance levels: 72.00, 73.00, 73.50

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 70.70. Stop-Loss. Take-Profit, 70.00, 68.50, 66.70, 66.00, 65.00, 63.00
Buy Stop 72.10. Stop-Loss 70.70. Take-Profit 73.00, 73.50, 75.00


 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
USD/CAD: The rate remained at the same level, however ...
19/04/2018
Current dynamics

The Canadian dollar fell after the Bank of Canada left the rate at the previous level of 1.25% on Wednesday. In the accompanying statement, the central bank expressed its concern over international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations, pointing to the problems of the export sector and the housing market.
"Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules. In addition, after the tax reform in the United States, the question of likely investors switching to US assets", the central bank said.
The decision to keep the key rate at the previous level was widely expected. Many of the economists pointed to the uncertainty surrounding the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as the main reason for this outcome of the next meeting of the central bank.
According to a statement issued on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will remain cautious and will focus on incoming economic data. Despite the decision of the Bank of Canada to keep the rate at the same level, many economists believe that the statement of the Bank of Canada was "balanced".
Despite the decline, after the decision of the Bank of Canada, the Canadian dollar gets support from rising oil prices. The bulk of Canadian exports accounted for the share of oil and petroleum products. As the world's largest exporter of oil, petroleum products and liquefied gas, the Canadian economy is receiving tangible benefits from rising oil prices.
Apparently, the pair USD / CAD decline will resume if the oil market still has a bullish trend, and in the negotiating process for NAFTA there will be tangible progress. The Bank of Canada also said on Wednesday that "raising interest rates will be justified with time", however, there are no more precise terms.

Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2660, 1.2700, 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200



 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
GBP/USD: pound declined despite rising wages
20/04/2018

Current dynamics

The Bank of England signaled that in the coming years it plans to raise rates three or more times to contain the growth of inflation.
Earlier in the week, strong macro statistics came out. So, the unemployment rate in the UK in December 2017 - February 2018 fell to 4.2% against 4.3% for the period November-January. The last time unemployment fell to 4.2% in 1975, the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) noted. The reduction in unemployment has provoked employment growth. Salaries (without premiums) for the reported three-month period increased by 2.8% against the backdrop of an increase in salaries in construction and production. This was the fastest growth rate of wages since 2015.
Economists believed that the next rate hike - up to 0.75% - could happen in May. However, the comments of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, given to them earlier in the week, have diminished the expectations of investors for raising rates, which many expected already next month.
He noted that economic data indicate a weak beginning of the year and markets should not expect a rate hike in May. There is also uncertainty about the future relationship between the UK and the EU. According to Thomson Reuters, the probability of a rate hike in May has now fallen below 50%.
On the comments of Carney, the pound fell sharply. With the opening of today's trading day, the GBP / USD pair continued to decline, however, the comments of central bank representative Michael Saunders, which he gave at 09:30 (GMT), supported the pound.
During his speech in Scotland, he said that the inflationary pressures in the economy are increasing because of the almost complete disappearance of free labor.
Saunders believes that Britain does not need such a soft monetary policy. "It's time to stop pushing the gas pedal so hard", says the text of the speech he made in Glasgow.
In March, Saunders was one of two committee members who voted to raise the key rate to 0.75% from the current 0.50%.
In turn, the dollar continues to advance in the foreign exchange market, including against the backdrop of rising yields on US government bonds. Thus, the yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2.915% from the level of 2.914%, recorded on Thursday.
According to economists, bond yields increase due to rising inflation expectations caused by strong strengthening of commodity prices and a reduction in geopolitical risks at the moment.
The ICE dollar index has grown again today, and, for 4 consecutive days to 90.00, having reached the maximum since April 9.
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and member of the FOMC Loretta Mester said on Thursday evening that consistent increases in interest rates are necessary in order to maintain economic recovery and avoid its overheating. According to Mester, holding interest rates at too low levels is the wrong way.
Thus, the FRS at the moment remains, perhaps, the single largest world central bank, implementing a gradual tightening of monetary policy. And this is the most important fundamental factor in favor of the growth of the dollar at the moment.

Support levels: 1.4030, 1.3970, 1.3725, 1.3600
Resistance levels: 1.4075, 1.4090, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.4110. Stop-Loss 1.4020. Take-Profit 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760
Sell Stop 1.4020. Stop-Loss 1.4110. Take-Profit 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3725, 1.3600


 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
XAU/USD: the price of gold is declining
23/04/2018
Current dynamics

With the opening of today's trading day, the price of gold continued to decline, and already 3 days in a row. The decrease in gold quotes occurs against the backdrop of the strengthening of the dollar, as well as the growth of yield on US government bonds, which reached 2.998% at the beginning of the European session of Monday.
Earlier, gold prices received support from political uncertainty, including the threat of escalation of the conflict in Syria, as well as prospects for trade wars between China and the United States.
Gold prices were also supported by the continuing threat of new nuclear tests and missile launches by North Korea.
Last weekend it became known that North Korea is stopping nuclear and missile tests, and also closes the nuclear test site. Earlier in the media, information appeared that North Korean leader Kim Jong-ying was allegedly ready to go to curtail the nuclear strategic program in the country in exchange for US security guarantees against North Korea and its leadership.
Reducing tension in this region of the world also contributes to the fall in the value of assets-shelters, including gold. Strengthening the dollar makes gold also more expensive for holders of other currencies. The monetary policy of the Fed, aimed at tightening, also contributes to the reduction of the value of gold. Metal does not bring interest yields, so it becomes less attractive during the period of interest rate growth. The gradual increase in inflation in the US will contribute to a more bold approach by the Fed to the issue of accelerated interest rate increases in the US.
Nevertheless, despite the current strengthening of the dollar, investors are still wary of the larger purchases of the dollar. This is facilitated by the expected increase in budget expenditures, leading to an acceleration of inflation and an increase in the federal budget deficit, as well as a growing deficit in the US foreign trade balance, coupled with a trade conflict with China, whose economy is the second largest after the US.
Half of the Fed leaders still adhere to a more cautious approach to the issue of the pace of tightening monetary policy. So, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Kaplan said recently that the aging of the population, the slow increase in labor resources, low productivity growth rates, and high public debt could become constraints to GDP growth in the next few years. For this reason, the Fed should raise rates "gradually and patiently", he added.
Despite the decline in quotations, the demand for gold is likely to continue in the short term. Therefore, long-term investors are likely at the moment given the opportunity to increase long positions on gold. A favorable zone for gold purchases will be the range between the levels of 1331.00, 1305.00.
The geopolitical risks associated with the prospect of the start of new trade wars will "keep in shape" the buyers of gold , and the demand for gold will continue.

Support levels: 1320.00, 1314.00, 1305.00, 1277.00, 1268.00
Resistance levels: 1331.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00

Trade Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1333.00. Take-Profit 1320.00, 1314.00, 1305.00
Buy Stop 1336.00. Stop-Loss 1329.00. Take-Profit 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00


 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
S&P500: In general, the long-term bullish trend remains in force
24/04/2018
Current dynamics

Trades in world stock markets today mostly go with growth after signs of stabilization of yields of US government bonds have appeared. On Monday, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached 2.998%, closely approaching the psychological level of 3%. The world stock markets were yesterday, probably on the verge of a new collapse. Investors fear that if the yield of 10-year government bonds exceeds 3% this week, then a new wave of sales may begin on the US stock market, which will provoke a fall on other world stock exchanges.
StoxxEurope600 in the morning trading rose by 0.3%, following the markets of Japan and Hong Kong, where there was a sharp increase.
A number of companies in Asia and Europe, included in the indices, reported profits in the first quarter. Basically, these are technology companies. But there are a number of companies in the oil and gas sector, whose profits have grown against the backdrop of the continuing rise in oil prices.
The barrel of Brent oil rose 0.4% to 74.98 dollars after reaching a maximum since November 2014, and oil and gas companies also entered the number of leaders in Europe.
Today, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 2.959% from the level of 2.998%, recorded on Monday.
It is likely that US stock markets will start trading in the US with an increase. At least, futures for the major US stock indexes are rising since the opening of the trading day on Tuesday. Futures indicates that the S&P500 will start the US trading session with an increase of 0.5%.
Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions, although asleep, may again intensify. The situation on the US Treasury bonds market has stabilized slightly, however, the yield of 10-year bonds is close to multi-month highs, closely approaching 3%.
The darkest scenario has not yet been realized, which allowed the risky assets to recover slightly.
However, sales may once again intensify as soon as the geopolitical situation deteriorates again, and the reports of US companies may not be so positive.
Investors are not yet ready for active purchases of high-yield, but also risky, assets of the stock markets. Although, in general, the long-term bullish trend, while the S&P500 is trading above the support level of 2614.0 (200-period moving average on the daily chart), remains in force.

Support levels: 2680.0, 2650.0, 2630.0, 2614.0, 2590.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Resistance levels: 2700.0, 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2670.0. Stop-Loss 2698.0. Objectives 2650.0, 2630.0, 2614.0, 2590.0
Buy Stop 2698.0. Stop-Loss 2670.0. Objectives 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0


 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
Will the deal with Iran be extended?
25/04/2018
Current dynamics

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday evening, the increase in oil reserves in the US in the week of April 14-20 was +1.1 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks fell by -2.7 and -1.9 million barrels, respectively.
Participants in the oil market reacted with sufficient restraint to the API data. More strong reaction of investors was to the new statements of the US president, which he made on Tuesday at a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. As Donald Trump said, "if they (Iran) resume the nuclear program, they will have such problems as never existed."
Macron arrived in the US, including to persuade Trump not to leave the nuclear agreement on Iran in 2015, and proposed the idea of a more extensive deal. During the talks, Trump said that this nuclear agreement on Iran "should not have existed" and called the deal "insane".
Later at the press conference Trump again used tough rhetoric against Tehran. "If Iran somehow threatens us, they will pay the price that few people paid", he threatened. According to Trump, thanks to the lifting of sanctions, Iran has received too much in exchange for an insufficient reduction of the nuclear program.
However, Macron wants to expand the deal of 2015, aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear activity, until 2025. Macron hopes that the US and other countries will agree to sign a new agreement aimed at resolving those problems that the original deal did not solve.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on Sunday in an interview for the CBS channel said that Iran "has prepared several options for action, including the resumption of the nuclear program and develop it very quickly" in the case of unilateral US actions aimed at seceding from the deal with Iran.
Nevertheless, after the meeting on Tuesday of French President Emmanuel Macron and Trump in the White House, prices fell. The US president expressed his interest in a possible new deal designed to limit Iran's nuclear program. According to economists, in this case it will be possible to avoid the introduction of new sanctions and leave oil production in Iran at the same level.
If before May 12, when US President Trump intends to take a decision on the Iranian agreement, there will be no unexpected statements on this issue from him, the oil market participants will again pay attention to the dynamics of the dollar, which is strengthened in the currency market, and the statistics on oil reserves and the level of production in the United States.
Today, the weekly report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Ministry, which will be published at 14:30 (GMT), may become the main driver on the oil market in the absence of new applications from the White House. According to the forecast of economists, the report of the US Energy Ministry will point to a drop in oil reserves in the US last week by -2.043 million barrels, and this is a positive factor for oil prices.
Reducing the reserves of oil and oil products will support the oil market, and Brent crude will again try to break into the zone above $ 75 per barrel.

Support levels: 77.85, 72.40, 71.70, 70.00, 69.80, 68.50, 66.70, 63.20, 58.00
Resistance levels: 73.50, 74.50, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 70.70. Stop-Loss 72.50. Take-Profit 70.00, 69.80, 68.50, 66.70, 63.20, 58.00
Buy Stop 73.50. Stop-Loss 72.30. Take-Profit 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00
Buy Limit 72.85, 72.40, 71.70. Stop Loss 70.85. Take-Profit 73.00, 73.50, 75.00


 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
EUR/USD: on the eve of ECB meeting
26/04/2018
Current dynamics

The center of attention of traders today is the ECB meeting and press conference, during which the head of the ECB Mario Draghi will comment on the decision on the rates. It is expected that the basic interest rate will remain at the previous zero level, and the rate on deposits - at the level of -0.4%.
Greater interest for traders will be presented by the press conference of the ECB, as well as the rhetoric of statements by Mario Draghi.
Recently, from the Eurozone, macro data comes, indicating a slowdown in the growth rate of the European economy. Against the backdrop of steadily low inflation, the risks of slowing the growth of the European economy postpone for an indefinite period the probability of the beginning of the completion of the QE program. Mario Draghi previously repeatedly made it clear that it's too early to talk about folding QE. Moreover, the incentive program can even be extended as required.
During its last meeting in March, when the ECB kept its key interest rate at 0%, and the monthly asset purchase volume of 30 billion euros, the European Central Bank announced that the bond purchases will continue until September "or longer, if necessary", and that key interest rates will not increase "for a long period of time".
It is likely that today the ECB leaders will confirm the slowdown in the growth of the Eurozone economy and point to low inflation. Under these circumstances, it is still too early for the central bank to think about curtailing the QE quantitative easing program, at least until the next meeting on June 14.
Nevertheless, investors will closely monitor the performance of Mario Draghi at the press conference. He is famous for being able to develop markets. Similar ECB decisions and statements by Mario Draghi previously moved the euro rate by 3-5% in a short period of time.
If the ECB president's rhetoric indicates a propensity for a softer policy, this could lead to a further drop in the euro, and EUR / USD may fall to around 1.2000 or lower.
Recall that the decision on the rates will be published at 11:45 (GMT), and the press conference, during which the head of the ECB Mario Draghi, will start at 12:30 (GMT).
Any unexpected statements by Mario Draghi can lead to a significant increase in volatility, not only in the euro bid, but throughout the financial market.

Support levels: 1.2160, 1.2100, 1.2000, 1.1980, 1.1850, 1.1790, 1.1750
Resistance levels: 1.2200, 1.2240, 1.2300, 1.2330, 1.2400, 1.2420, 1.2445, 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2600

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2150. Stop-Loss 1.2210. Take-Profit 1.2100, 1.2000, 1.1980
Buy Stop 1.2210. Stop-Loss 1.2150. Take-Profit 1.2240, 1.2300, 1.2330, 1.2400, 1.2420, 1.2445, 1.2470, 1.2500


 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
GBP/USD: Pound decline accelerates
27/04/2018

Current dynamics

As reported today by the National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain, the gross domestic product in the 1st quarter grew by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, or by 1.2% year-on-year (the forecast was + 0.3% and +1.4 %, respectively).
Thus, GDP growth has slowed significantly; the UK economy in the first quarter of 2018 grew at a slower pace in more than five years.
Also the UK business activity index, the leading branch of the British economy was worse than expected (+0.4% vs. 0.6%, +0.6% in February). This economy sector is the bulk of the country's GDP.
The low growth rates of the British economy reduce the likelihood of an increase in the key interest rate at the May meeting of the Bank of England.
In November, for the first time in the last 10 years, the central bank raised its key interest rate to 0.5% from a record low of 0.25%, offsetting the decline made after the exit vote.
The Bank of England also signaled that in the coming years it plans to raise rates three or more times in order to contain the growth of inflation.
The British pound fell to a two-week low against the backdrop of published macro statistics, as investors came to the conclusion that the rate hike could be delayed.
Uncertainty about future ties between the UK and the EU persists, and economic data indicate a weak start this year.
Today at 14:00 (GMT) the performance of Mark Carney will begin. His comments, which he gave last week, have diminished the expectations of investors for raising rates, which many expected already next month. He noted that economic data indicate a weak beginning of the year and markets should not expect a rate hike in May.
Investors will be interesting to hear his opinion today on the received weak data on GDP growth, as well as on the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England in May 10, at which the issue of monetary policy will be decided.
Also, investors will follow the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of the annual US GDP for the first quarter, as well as the price indices and expenditures for personal consumption of Americans for the first quarter.
As the US Department of Labor reported yesterday, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week declined to the lowest level since 1969. This was yet another sign of improvement in the labor market after several years of steady employment growth. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the week of April 15-21 fell by 24,000 and amounted to 209,000. The labor market in the US remains strong, and this is an important positive factor for GDP. Probably, US GDP will grow at 3-3.5% annually, as expected by economists. This is a strong signal for the dollar in the direction of its further strengthening, not only against the pound, but throughout the currency market.
Moreover, the FRS at the moment remains the world's single largest central bank, implementing a gradual tightening of monetary policy. And this is the most important fundamental factor in favor of the growth of the dollar at the moment.
Support levels: 1.3740, 1.3620, 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.4010. Stop-Loss 1.3880. Take-Profit 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760
Sell in market. Stop-Loss 1.4010. Take-Profit 1.3740, 1.3620, 1.3500, 1.3400, 1.3300


 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
GBP/USD: pair's prospects are negative
03/05/2018

Current dynamics

According to the research company IHS Markit, published today, the index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK services sector in April was 52.8 (against 51.7 in March and the forecast of 53.5). A value above 50 indicates an increase in activity. Nevertheless, the PMI index of the services sector was another signal that the growth of the British economy at the beginning of the second quarter was restrained.
Earlier in the week, other disappointing macro data were published, pointing to the weak growth of the UK economy in April. So, the PMI index for the manufacturing sector, published on Tuesday, was the lowest for 17 months (53.9 against 54.8 on forecast and 54.9 in March).
As reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain last week, the gross domestic product in the 1st quarter grew by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, or 1.2% on an annualized basis (forecast was + 0.3% and +1 , 4%, respectively). Data suggest that GDP growth has slowed significantly; The UK economy in the first quarter of 2018 grew at a slower pace in more than five years.
Also worse than expected was the index of business activity in the service sector, the leading branch of the British economy, which accounts for the bulk of the country's GDP (+ 0.4% vs. 0.6% + 0.6% in February).
Low growth rates of the British economy reduce the likelihood of an increase in the key interest rate at the May meeting of the Bank of England, which will take place next week (May 10).
Against the backdrop of weak macro statistics, investors came to the conclusion that the rate hike could be postponed. Uncertainty about future ties between the UK and the EU persists, and economic data indicate a weak start this year. The head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, last month said that economic data indicate a weak beginning of the year and markets should not expect a rate hike in May.
The Fed meeting ended on Wednesday, on the contrary, pointed to the determination of the Fed and further to gradually raise the interest rate. In the comments to this decision, the central bank's leaders noted the acceleration of inflation in the US. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the price index for personal consumption expenditure (PCE), in March showed an annual growth of 2%.
The dollar strengthened after the Fed meeting, and, despite its today's corrective decline, the dollar is likely to grow further, including against the pound.
"A too slow increase in rates will lead to the need to sharply tighten monetary policy at some point, jeopardizing GDP growth", Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last month .The rise in inflation pressures could still force the Fed to tighten monetary policy faster pace, and this is a strong fundamental factor in favor of further strengthening of the dollar.

Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3535, 1.3400, 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.3615, 1.3740, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.3640. Stop-Loss 1.3550. Take-Profit 1.3700, 1.3740, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400
Sell Stop 1.3550. Stop-Loss 1.3640. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3400, 1.3300, 1.3210


 

TifiaFX

Active member
Mar 13, 2017
313
0
26
tifia.com
XAU/USD: Dollar is rising in price, gold becomes cheaper
04/05/2018
Current dynamics

Since the opening of today's trading day, the price of gold has resumed its decline amid the strengthening of the dollar. Spot gold prices in London fell by 0.2% to 1309.40 dollars per ounce. Since last month, gold prices have fallen by 0.2%.
At the same time, the dollar continues to strengthen. After reaching the current year's low in February, the WSJ dollar index, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, rose by more than 4%.
It is known that at the meeting which came to the end on Wednesday, the Fed confirmed intention to adhere to the plan for gradual tightening of monetary policy. The PCE personal consumption expenditure price index (the Fed's preferred inflation indicator) showed an annual growth of 2% in March. Tax cuts and increased government spending this year will help to strengthen domestic demand. The imposition of import duties would increase the cost of imports, which could also put pressure on inflation. Now many people are interested in how the Fed will act if inflation exceeds 2%.
"Too slow a rate hike will lead to the fact that at some point will need to sharply tighten monetary policy, putting at risk GDP growth”, - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last month.
According to the quotes of futures on interest rates of the Fed, investors estimate the probability of a rate hike in June at about 100%, and the probability of three more rate hikes this year at 50% (against 32% a month earlier).
On Thursday, another series of positive macro statistics on the United States was published. Among other things, it should be noted a significant relative decrease of foreign trade deficit of the United States (nearly $ 9 billion or 17%). This is a very positive development in favour of further strengthening the dollar.
Meanwhile, investors are watching the trade talks between the US and China, which will be held this week. USA gave China a long list of requirements from the immediate reduction of the imbalance in trade to 100 billion dollars a year to the suspending of support by the Chinese government advanced technologies. The US trade deficit with China last year amounted to $ 375 billion. US President Donald trump has repeatedly said about the need to reduce this figure by 100 billion dollars a year. In the document, the US demands that Beijing reduce its trade surplus by at least $ 200 billion by the end of 2020.
In addition, the US demands that Beijing guarantee that it will not take retaliatory measures against the United States under intellectual property disputes.
If the negotiations are successful, the dollar will probably growth up again.
Today, the focus of traders will be the publication of data from the US labor market at 12:30 (GMT). Strong performance is expected (the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy in April increased by 192 000 against +103 000 in March, and unemployment fell by 0.1% to 4.0%, to the lowest level in 18 months). In the short term, the dollar may react with restraint to the report from the labor market, since 3 rate hikes this year have already been included in the quotes. However, if the data will be better, the dollar will receive another strong support amid positive macro statistics coming in recent weeks from the United States. Probably, gold will continue to fall in price. At the same time, geopolitical risks will continue to "keep the tone" of gold buyers, and the demand for gold will resume with the next aggravation of the geopolitical or domestic political situation in the United States.

Support levels: 1305.00, 1295.00, 1277.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1313.00, 1318.00, 1327.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1307.00. Stop-Loss 1319.00. Take-Profit 1305.00, 1295.00, 1277.00
Buy Stop 1319.00. Stop-Loss 1307.00. Take-Profit 1327.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00