Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: The Bank of Canada will decide on the interest rate
30/05/2018

Current dynamics
Political instability in Italy and its possible consequences for the European economy forces investors to buy safe assets. Against this background, not only the euro is falling, but also the quotations of commodity currencies, as well as commodity prices, are falling. Against this negative background, the Canadian dollar fell against the US dollar, reaching a 2-month low at 1.3045 on Tuesday.
The US dollar, which also enjoys the status of a safe asset in this situation, continued to grow on Tuesday. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the other 6 major currencies, reached its new annual high of 94.98 on Tuesday.
Nevertheless, on Wednesday the US dollar took a pause and declined from the opening of the trading day. Futures on DXY traded at the beginning of the European session on Wednesday near the mark of 94.35.
Today the publication of important macroeconomic data is expected.
In particular, at 12:15 (GMT) ADP data on the number of jobs in the private sector of the US for May will come out. If they are strong, then the positive trend of the dollar will resume. As a result, the dollar index DXY could rise to 96, according to many economists. It is expected that the number of employed in the private sector of the US rose in May by 190,000 (after an increase of +204,000 in April). Strong ADP data on employment in the private sector will support the upward momentum of the dollar.
At 12:30 (GMT), the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce will publish data on US GDP for the first quarter (second estimate). Data on GDP are one of the key (along with data on the labor market and inflation) for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. In the previous quarter, GDP growth was + 2.5%. The forecast for the 1st quarter of this year is 2.3% (2.3% on the preliminary release). The dollar will decrease only if the data prove to be much worse than the forecast.
Despite the decline observed today, the dollar continues to dominate the foreign exchange market.
At 14:00 (GMT) the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate will be published. It is expected that the Bank of Canada will not change the current monetary policy. The rate will remain at the current level of 1.25%.
As Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri said earlier this month, the Bank of Canada "has to hedge itself because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations".
The strengthening US dollar and the uncertainty associated with the prolongation or amendment of the terms of the NAFTA agreement support the USD / CAD pair.
Nevertheless, investors will carefully study the text of the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada. Rigid rhetoric of the accompanying statement and any hint of a rate hike in the coming months could cause a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market and lead to the strengthening of the Canadian dollar.
If the rhetoric of the Bank of Canada's statement is soft, it will cause further weakening of the Canadian dollar.

Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2930, 1.2900, 1.2865, 1.2780, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550
Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3045, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3450

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2960. Stop-Loss 1.3050. Take-Profit 1.2930, 1.2900, 1.2865, 1.2780, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550
Buy Stop 1.3050. Stop-Loss 1.2960. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3300, 1.3450

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: decrease of reserves in US oil storage facilities is expected
31/05/2018
Current dynamics
As the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Wednesday evening, US oil inventories rose by 1 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 1.5 million barrels.
This is negative information for oil quotes, which are again declining after corrective growth the day before.
At the beginning of the European trading session on Thursday, the price of WTI crude oil fell below the psychological level of 68.00 dollars per barrel.
After reaching an annual maximum near the $ 73.00 per barrel level last week, prices fell by 10% over the next 5 trading days, coming close to $ 66.00 per barrel.
The fall in oil prices was triggered by expectations that OPEC might increase oil production in June.
Last Friday, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced plans to soften the terms of the OPEC + agreement and increase oil production. The OPEC + agreement on production reduction came into force in January 2017, and since then oil prices have risen by about 35%. The agreement expires at the end of 2018.
Earlier in May, Brent oil prices broke through the level of $ 80 per barrel, and this happened for the first time since 2014.
Now, due to an increase in production of 1 million barrels per day, prices may fall by about $ 15 per barrel.
On Friday, a weekly report from the American oilfield service company Baker Hughes was released, according to which the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US increased again and currently stands at 859 units (against 844 in the week before last). The growth of this indicator is another negative factor for the oil market and for oil prices.
On Thursday, oil market participants are waiting for the publication of weekly data from the US Department of Energy, which will be released at 14:30 (GMT). It is expected that oil and oil products stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels last week. If the data is confirmed, then it will support oil prices.
Support levels: 67.00, 66.30, 65.50
Resistance levels: 68.00, 68.85, 70.00, 71.25, 72.80, 74.00, 75.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 67.30. Stop-Loss. 68.20. Take-Profit 67.00, 66.30, 65.50
Buy Stop 68.20. Stop-Loss 67.30. Take-Profit 68.85, 70.00, 71.25, 72.80, 74.00, 75.00

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: the activity of traders is minimal before NFP
01/06/2018

Current dynamics
The volume of consumer lending in the UK in April rose sharply after a period of weakness in March.
The data published on Thursday pointed to the strongest growth in unsecured consumer lending for almost 18 months. Unsecured consumer lending jumped to 1.8 billion pounds in April after falling to 400 million British pounds in March.
This signal can affect the Bank of England and convince in the need to raise the key interest rate in the coming months.
On Friday, the pound gained additional support after the index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector, which in May exceeded the forecast of 53.5, to 54.4, was published at the beginning of the European session.
The production growth accelerated to the highest level in the last year of the current year against the backdrop of the strongest growth in inventories over the entire 26-year history of observations and a sharp reduction in outstanding orders.
After the publication of the data, the pound strengthened, and the GBP / USD pair increased by 30 points relative to the opening price of today.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is trading almost unchanged, while investors are preparing to the publishing of important economic report at the end of the week.
The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the other 6 major currencies, today declined slightly at the beginning of the European session, to 93.95, after it reached its next annual maximum of 94.98 on Tuesday.
At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will report on the most important indicators of the labor market in the US in May (Average hourly wage / Number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector / Unemployment rate). Forecast: + 0.2% (against + 0.1% in April) / 188 000 (against 164 000 in April) / 3.9% (against 3.9% in April), respectively.
In general, the indicators can be called strong. If they coincide with the forecast or come out better, then this will have a positive effect on the USD.
Strong data will strengthen the likelihood of four Fed rate increases this year. In this case, the investment attractiveness of the dollar will grow.
According to some leaders of the Fed, "it is advisable to continue to tighten monetary and credit policy in order to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability".
Thus, the different focus of the monetary policy of central banks in the UK and the US, as well as the uncertainty about Brexit, will further reduce the GBP / USD.
However, if the data prove to be worse than the forecast or market participants find the report on the labor market weak, then the dollar will inevitably fall.
In any case, it is often difficult to predict the market reaction to the publication of indicators. Often, a strong move to the one side should be followed by an equally strong rollback to the other side, since the data published earlier is often revised.
Probably the most successful trading position today will be to stay out of the market, at least, in this period of time.
Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050
Resistance levels: 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3580, 1.3650, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4000

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop-Loss 1.3350. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3050
Buy Stop 1.3350. Stop-Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3580, 1.3620

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: despite corrective growth, downward dynamics predominate
04/06/2018

Current dynamics
According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Friday, the number of jobs outside agriculture increased by 223,000 in May (forecast was +188,000), while unemployment fell to 3.8 percent, the lowest level since 1969.
The number of jobs in the US has been growing for 92 months in a row, which is the longest such period in the history of such statistics.
The growth in demand for labor should positively affect wages, which are still growing at a moderate pace. The average hourly earnings in the US in May grew by 2.7% (in annual terms).
The US dollar recovered with support for strong employment data for May, which made it more likely to accelerate the rate of interest rate increase in the coming months.
The probability that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 2.0% at a meeting to be held June 12-13 is almost 100%, according to the CME Group.
However, more interest for investors will be represented by the text of the Fed's accompanying statement about the prospects of monetary policy and the probability of more accelerated rates of its tightening. 3 planned Fed rate increases this year are already taken into account in the quotes of the US dollar.
If the Fed signals about a high probability of 4 rate increases this year, then the dollar's growth will resume.
Meanwhile, there is a decline in the US dollar after its growth on Friday against the backdrop of strong data from the US labor market.
The Trump administration does not show signs of concern about the possible start of a trade war. "When the deficit of foreign trade is almost 800 billion dollars a year, one can not afford to lose a trade war", Trump wrote on his twitter page on Saturday. "The USA has been ripped off by other countries for years, it's time to take on the mind," he added.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar received support in the morning from the publication of positive macro statistics, according to which, retail sales in Australia in April rose by 0.4% (forecast was + 0.2%), companies' profit in Australia in the 1st quarter increased to + 5.9% (the forecast was + 3.0% and + 2.8% in the previous quarter).
Nevertheless, key indicators such as the Australian labor market and consumer incomes remain weak.
So, the unemployment rate in Australia is 5.6% (in March this level was 5.5%), and the growth rate of salaries in Australia remain near record lows. Thus, the growth of wages in Australia in the first quarter of 2018 amounted to + 2.1% (in annual terms). The Reserve Bank of Australia pays much attention to this indicator when deciding on the interest rate.
Low wage growth rates may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to not change interest rates for a longer period of time.
On Tuesday (01:30 GMT), the RBA takes a decision on the rate, which since mid-2016 is at a record low level of 1.5%. Deputy Governor of the RBA Debell said that interest rates will not be raised until consumers' incomes rise.
Economists believe that the first increase will take place only in 2019. However, interest rates may remain unchanged for an even longer time, given the weak wage growth and the slowdown in the Australian economy.
It is likely that on Tuesday the rate will remain at the same level of 1.5%.
"The Board does not see any weighty arguments in favor of adjusting the key interest rate in the short term," - said in one of the latest statements of the RBA.
Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7575, 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7300
Resistance levels: 0.7655, 0.7700, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7640. Stop-Loss 0.7710. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7575, 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7300
Buy Stop 0.7710. Stop-Loss 0.7640. Take-Profit 0.7750, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: The British economy is recovering
05/06/2018

Current dynamics
Published at the beginning of today's European session, positive macro data on the UK services sector, supported the pound. According to the research company IHS Markit, the index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK services sector increased to 54.0 in May from 52.8 in April (the forecast was 53.0), reaching the highest level in three months. The values of the index above 50 indicate an increase in activity.
Activity in the services sector in the UK increased in May, which was another signal for the country's economic recovery after weakening at the beginning of the year. On Friday, a similar report was submitted for the UK manufacturing sector, which also indicated an acceleration of activity in May. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector assesses the business climate and conditions in the manufacturing sector. As this sector forms a significant part of the final indicator of the UK GDP, the PMI production index is an important indicator of the business environment and the general state of the British economy. The figure above the 50 mark is a positive (or bullish) factor for GBP. The production PMI came out on Friday with the value for May 54.4 (the forecast was 53.5, and 53.9 in April). The production growth accelerated to the highest level in the current year against the backdrop of the strongest growth in inventories over the entire 26-year history of observations and a sharp reduction in outstanding orders.
The services sector and the manufacturing sector of the economy form the bulk of the UK GDP. Growth in these sectors indicates a positive trend and the restoration of the British economy, despite the continuing uncertainty of Brexit. There is less than a year left before the end of Brexit.
Many economists believe that signs of recovery in the second quarter may increase the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of England in the coming months, perhaps even in August.
So, one of the nine members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Silvano Tenreiro, said last Monday that it expects "several" increases in the cost of borrowing by mid-2012, although the exact terms for each of them is "an open question".
The next meeting of the Bank of England, dedicated to monetary policy, is scheduled for June 21. And now investors will monitor the data, which may allow the central bank to hint at raising rates this year.
The next important data on inflation, which may affect the determination of the Bank of England to raise the rate in the coming months, will come later this week.
Support levels: 1.3337, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050
Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3460, 1.3575, 1.3650, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4000

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3325. Stop-Loss 1.3395. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3050
Buy Stop 1.3395. Stop-Loss 1.3325. Take-Profit 1.3460, 1.3575, 1.3620, 1.3800, 1.3970

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: this year the ECB can curtail the large-scale program QE
06/06/2018

Current dynamics
According to the chief economist of the ECB, Peter Pret, the ECB is close to achieving the conditions under which it is possible to complete the program of buying bonds. According to Pret, the Eurozone labor market is strengthening. The unemployment rate is declining, and this accelerates the growth of wages, which is becoming a key condition for stronger inflation, the target level of which is just below 2%.
Now, as part of the quantitative easing program, the central bank buys assets at 30 billion euros a month and will continue to purchase at least until September.
Since the beginning of the current week, the Euro has been growing on the information that at a meeting on June 12 the ECB may discuss an exit from the quantitative easing program.
At the end of last week, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, Sabine Lautenschlager, said that the ECB could decide at the June meeting to close the asset purchase program later this year.
Peter Pret signaled on Wednesday that the central bank's leaders are increasingly confident in the return of inflation in the Eurozone to the target level amidst the strength of the economy and the growth of salaries. This means that this year the bank can curtail a large-scale asset purchase program.
Nevertheless, more conservative investors believe that the growth of the euro will be limited, even if at a meeting on June 12 the ECB will signal the completion of the QE program. As ECB President Mario Draghi previously said, interest rates will remain near zero for a long time, even if the quantitative easing program is curtailed.
And it is this issue that will be decisive in determining the direction of the further movement of the euro and the EUR / USD.
Later on Wednesday, the attention of market participants will switch to publication (at 12:30 GMT) of important macro statistics from the US, including data on the foreign trade balance for April. In the last month, the US trade deficit narrowed from -57.6 billion dollars to -49 billion dollars. If the data again indicates the growth of the deficit, the dollar may fall. In any case, at the time of publication of macro data, volatility in currency pairs with the dollar, including in the EUR / USD, can significantly increase.
Before the meetings of the ECB and the Fed next week, investors will attach great importance to macro data.
Support levels: 1.1755, 1.1695, 1.1660, 1.1630, 1.1570, 1.1520
Resistance levels: 1.1790, 1.1860, 1.1900, 1.1935, 1.2000

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1730. Stop-Loss 1.1810. Take-Profit 1.1695, 1.1660, 1.1630, 1.1570, 1.1520
Buy Stop 1.1810. Stop-Loss 1.1730. Take-Profit 1.1860, 1.1900, 1.1935, 1.2000

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: the uptrend remains in force
07/06/2018

Current dynamics
At the end of last week, as expected, the Bank of Canada did not begin to change the interest rate, leaving it at 1.25%. As Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri said earlier last month, the Bank of Canada "has to hedge itself because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations". The uncertainty associated with the prolongation or amendment of the terms of the NAFTA negatively affects the quotes of the Canadian currency.
In addition, since June 1, US import duties on steel and aluminum (25% and 10%, respectively), including those supplied from Canada, have come into effect.
Last Thursday, Canadian Prime Minister Jasin Trudeau announced a response to the United States duties. The total value of imports from the US, which will be subject to new duties, is 16.6 billion Canadian dollars (12.8 billion US dollars). This corresponds to the value of Canada's exports to the US for 2017. This is the strongest response measures that the country has decided to apply since the Second World War.
Weaker oil prices also put pressure on CAD. The Canadian economy largely depends on the export of raw materials, primarily oil and oil products. The largest partner of Canada and the buyer of Canadian oil are the United States.
On Thursday (15:15 GMT), the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz will begin. He will explain the bank's position and assess the current economic situation in the country. If the tone of Stephen Poloz's speech is tough with respect to the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, the Canadian dollar will strengthen on the foreign exchange market. If Stephen Poloz expresses his support for maintaining soft monetary policy, the Canadian currency will decline. In any case, during the speech of Stephen Poloz high volatility in trading on the Canadian dollar is expected.
Investors also want to hear the opinion of Poloz about NAFTA's prospects and regarding Canada's counter measures after the introduction of US import duties on steel and aluminum.
Also, the dynamics of the Canadian dollar could be affected by the publication on Friday (12:30 GMT) of data on the Canadian labor market for May.
Unemployment in April was 5.8%. In the case of rising unemployment and a decrease in the number of employed, the Canadian dollar will decline. If the data prove to be better than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. However, the impact of this publication on the dynamics of USD / CAD will be short-term, and the upward trend of the pair USD / CAD in the current situation is likely to continue.
Support levels: 1.2937, 1.2900, 1.2875, 1.2790, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550
Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3045, 1.3080, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3450

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2975. Take-Profit 1.2875, 1.2790, 1.2740
Buy Stop 1.2975. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.3045, 1.3080, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3450

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: the focus of traders - meeting G7
08/06/2018

Current dynamics
The focus of traders at the end of the week is the G7 meeting. Leaders of the G-7 countries are due to meet in Québec on Friday for a two-day meeting, during which the issues of trade relations will be discussed after the introduction of the US import duties on steel and aluminum.
As is known, since June 1, import duties on steel and aluminum imported from the EU, Canada, and Mexico have started to operate in the United States. Steel and aluminum from other countries are subject to import duty (25% and 10%, respectively) as early as March.
At the end of May, G7 finance ministers held a meeting in Canada, following which a public protest was issued against the introduction of new import duties on steel and aluminum. The European Union is ready to introduce counter restrictions of € 6.4 billion, Canada - $ 12.8 billion. Nevertheless, the White House insists on continuing pressure on trading partners. "When the foreign trade deficit is almost 800 billion dollars a year, one can not afford to lose a trade war", Trump wrote on his Twitter page on Saturday. "The US has been ripped off by other countries for years, it's time to start thinking", he added.
French President Macron said on Thursday that due to the recently announced US steel and aluminum duties against the EU and Canada, the remaining six members of the G-7 will have to unite in their own strength. Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau said that he will remain faithful to the interests of Canadian citizens, even if this entails contradictions between neighbors. To this Trump replied on Twitter: "Please tell Prime Minister Trudeau and President Macron that they are charging huge fees and imposing non-tariff restrictions on the United States".
Many investors believe that the tension in trade issues will increase the restless situation in the stock markets.
The yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to 2,915% today from 2,933%. The demand for asylum assets - yen, franc, gold - is again growing.
World stock markets on Friday are falling amid growing tension in trade on the eve of an important G7 summit.
It is likely that up to the end of today's trading day, stock indices in Europe and the US will remain under pressure.
Nevertheless, the bullish trend of the US stock market so far remains in force.
Support levels: 2745.0, 2716.0, 2673.0, 2640.0, 2630.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2780.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2740.0. Stop-Loss 2785.0. Objectives 2716.0, 2673.0, 2640.0, 2630.0
Buy Stop 2785.0. Stop-Loss 2740.0. Objectives 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: activity of traders is low before important events
13/06/2018
Current dynamics
After Tuesday's meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, and also in anticipation of the outcome of the meetings of the central banks of the US and the Eurozone, the world stock indices retain a restrained-positive dynamic.
It is widely expected that today the Fed will raise the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75% -2%. The probability of such an increase is estimated by investors at 94%. This scenario is already included in the prices. Investors will be concerned with the question of how many more increases the Fed can make before the end of the year - one or two. The decision on the rates of the Fed will be published at 18:00 (GMT), and at 18:30 a press conference will begin at which the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will explain the decision taken by the Fed, and also express the opinion of the FRS leadership on the prospects for economic growth in the US.
Published on Tuesday, the data again pointed to the steady strengthening of inflation in the US, which should convince the Fed to further gradually increase interest rates. The consumer price index (CPI) in May grew by 2.8% compared to the same period last year. Thus, last month the annual price increase was the strongest since February 2012.
The labor market in the US remains stable, and unemployment reached 3.8% in May, the lowest level since 1969. The last time the unemployment rate was 3.8% was recorded in April 2000. The average hourly earnings in the US in May rose by 0.3% (against the forecast of + 0.2% and + 0.1% in April) and by 2.7% (in annual terms).
The US economy continues to grow more confident than others, the macroeconomic situation in the US remains favorable, indicating that it is possible to raise rates after today's meeting more than once.
Market participants will closely follow Powell's speech to catch signals about the Fed's tougher position on monetary policy. If Powell unequivocally signals about the possibility of 4 rate increases this year, then the dollar can become sharply stronger. But the stock indices can again turn to the "south".
Investors also do not forget about the risks and threats that have emerged against the backdrop of escalating trade contradictions between the US and major trade and economic partners, such as China, the EU, Canada.
Thus, the monetary policy of central banks, as well as the threat of escalation of trade wars, will be the main driver in the financial markets in the short term.

Support levels: 25240.0, 24800.0, 24425.0, 24050.0, 23750.0
Resistance levels: 25425.0, 25750.0, 26300.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 25430.0. Stop-Loss 25200.0. Take-Profit 25750.0, 26300.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 25200.0. Stop-Loss 25430.0. Take-Profit 25000.0, 24800.0, 24425.0, 24050.0, 23750.0

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: rate hike could happen in August
14/06/2018

Current dynamics
Published on Wednesday, disappointing inflation data contributed to the weakening of the pound and the fall of the GBP / USD. The consumer price index (CPI) in May grew by 2.4% compared to the same period of the previous year, as in April.
The published data indicate that inflationary pressure in the UK remains, despite the restrained growth of wages. The leadership of the Bank of England, headed by Mark Carney, has repeatedly signaled that it expects two or three increases in borrowing costs in the UK over the next two years in order to bring inflation back to a 2% target.
The inflation report released on Wednesday may strengthen expectations for another small increase in borrowing costs, as the data signals that inflationary pressures are on the rise. Growth in company sales prices accelerated in May for the first time in six months. The producer price index rose by 2.9% compared to the same period of the previous year, after rising by 2.5% in April.
On Thursday, strong retail sales data was released, which pushed the pound up.
Compared to May of the previous year, retail sales in May grew by 3.9%. Compared to the previous month, sales increased by 1.3%, although they were projected to increase by only 0.3%. In April, retail sales grew by 1.6%.
On published data and after yesterday's decision of the Fed to raise rates the GBP / USD rose by 70 points from the opening of the trading day.
The next meeting of the Bank of England, dedicated to monetary policy, is scheduled for June 21. And now investors are watching the data, which may allow the central bank to hint at raising rates this year.
Economists expect that the next rate increase may occur in August.
In anticipation of this decision of the Bank of England, the pound may continue to strengthen, including in the GBP / USD.
Support levels: 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3000
Resistance levels: 1.3490, 1.3560, 1.3650, 1.3800, 1.3980, 1.4000

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop-Loss 1.3450. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3000
Buy Stop 1.3450. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3560, 1.3620, 1.3800, 1.3980

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: demand for gold will be supported as for an asset-shelter
15/06/2018
Current dynamics
Despite the decision of the Fed to raise the rate and a statement of intent to further tighten monetary policy in the US, gold prices on Thursday reached the highest level for the month near the mark of 1309.00 dollars per ounce.
Investors once again remembered geopolitical tensions and the threat of a large-scale world trade war.
President of the United States Donald Trump approved the introduction of duties on the import of goods from China worth about 50 billion dollars.
On Thursday, high-ranking representatives of the White House, officials responsible for state security, representatives of the Ministry of Finance and the US Department of Commerce held a 90-minute meeting. On Friday, the US Trade Mission intends to make public the list of goods for which duties will be distributed.
Trump does not intend to back away from taking the course to support local producers and pursuing a protectionist policy towards American goods abroad.
As you know, from June 1, the US began to apply import duties on steel and aluminum from China, the EU, and Canada. Other countries, suppliers of these goods to the United States, were sanctioned in March.
June gold futures on COMEX closed on Thursday with an increase of 0.6%, at USD 1304.00 per troy ounce, which is the maximum closing level since May 14.
US President Donald Trump's administration announced plans to introduce import duties on Chinese goods worth tens of billions of dollars in the next few days, which led traders to prepare for a new wave of geopolitical tensions.
As you know, in the context of an increase in the interest rate, the price of gold is falling, because it is more difficult for him to compete with other objects for long-term investments that generate revenue, such as, for example, government bonds. At the same time, the investment attractiveness of the dollar is growing.
In periods of aggravation of the geopolitical situation or international trade contradictions, the "swing" moves in the opposite direction and the demand for gold rises again, as investors see it as an safe-asset.
Nevertheless, despite the growth, prices in the future will face resistance of sellers of gold in favor of the dollar against the background of further tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed.
Only weak macro data from the United States, as well as an even greater strengthening of geopolitical tensions in the world, can push gold quotes higher. So far, negative dynamics prevails.
Level 1303.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) is still a strong resistance for the XAU / USD pair.
Support levels: 1299.00, 1283.00, 1277.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1308.00, 1325.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1309.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1283.00, 1277.00, 1270.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1309.00. Stop-Loss 1298.00. Take-Profit 1325.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: amid escalation of trade contradictions
18/06/2018

Current dynamics
As you know, President Donald Trump on Friday approved a 25% import duty on Chinese goods worth $ 50 billion. After that, representatives of the Chinese authorities said that they would introduce reciprocal tariffs of the same scale on American goods.
World stock markets and commodity currencies are declining at the beginning of a new week. The aggravation of trade disagreements between the US and China negatively affects the demand of investors for risky assets.
Prices for raw materials also fall in the face of aggravation of trade contradictions, which leads to a decrease in the quotations of commodity currencies relative to the dollar.
The situation can lead to a trade war between the two largest economies in the world.
China is Australia's largest trade and economic partner. Negative information on the Chinese economy leads, as a rule, to a decrease in the quotations of the Australian dollar.
China is also the largest buyer of primary commodities in Australia, primarily iron ore, so necessary for China's industrial potential.
Concerns about the fate of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and the fees that the Trump administration imposed on the European allies also increase concerns in the markets.
In this situation, the demand for the US dollar, which plays the role of refuge in this situation, is growing.
Also, the decision of last week's Fed meeting contributed to the growth of the dollar, following which the Fed raised the target range of interest rates by 0.25% to 1.75% - 2.00% on Wednesday, and also signaled the possible acceleration of the rate of monetary tightening policy this year to maintain a sustainable recovery of the country's economy.
On Tuesday (01:30 GMT) the protocol from the recent meeting of the RBA, at which the bank kept the current monetary policy at the same level, will be published.
Also at the same time (01:30 GMT) on Tuesday housing price indices in Australia (for 1 quarter) will be published. The RBA is positively considering the slowdown in housing prices.
At the same time, market participants believe that the RBA will not raise interest rates until mid-2019. Salaries continue to grow slowly, and households' debt has risen to a record high, which also includes raising interest rates to a more distant future.
According to the head of the RBA Philip Lowe, "there are no serious arguments in favor of tightening monetary policy in the short term". In his opinion, "before the rate increases, some time will pass".
In any case, on Tuesday, at the time of the publication of the minutes of the RBA meeting and the Australian housing price index, volatility in the Australian currency trading is expected to grow.
At the same time, the different focus of the monetary policies of the Fed and the RBA remains the main argument in favor of further weakening of the AUD / USD.
Support levels: 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7270, 0.7155
Resistance level: 0.7500, 0.7575, 0.7680, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7490. Take-Profit 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7270, 0.7155
Buy Stop 0.7510. Stop-Loss 0.7460. Take-Profit 0.7575, 0.7680

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: indexes fall amid the escalation of the trade conflict
19/06/2018
Current dynamics
After last week, Washington imposed import duties on Chinese goods worth $ 50 billion, Beijing immediately threatened with retaliation for particularly significant US exports, such as oil, agricultural products and cars.
In both cases, import duties in the United States and China come into force on July 6. Markets responded quite cautiously to this step from Washington. On Monday President of the United States Donald Trump appealed to the administration with the task to make a list of Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion, for which duties will be imposed, thus increasing pressure on China.
Trump blames China for violating intellectual property rights and stealing technology. The White House clarified that the new fees will be levied if China does not change its position or will itself announce new tariffs for American goods. By such actions, Trump tries to create the most favorable conditions for the American economy, limiting the import of goods from China.
China reacted almost instantly. "If the US side completely loses its mind and publishes a new list, the Chinese side will be forced to take comprehensive quantitative and qualitative measures and give a decisive response", the Chinese trade department said in a statement.
Thus, the trade conflict between the US and China comes to a new level. This time the world stock markets have painfully reacted to the possible escalation of the conflict.
This next round in the aggravation of the situation may be a harbinger of a trade war between the two largest economies of the world.
News about the new trade disagreements between the US and China at the beginning of the trading day on Tuesday exerted strong pressure on European and world stock indices.
Shanghai Composite fell by 3.8% to a minimum in almost two years. Stoxx Europe 600 at the auction in the morning sank by 1.1%. Futures on the S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average indicate a loss of 1.3% and 1.6% respectively at the opening of trading.
Support levels: 24425.0, 24050.0, 23750.0
Resistance levels: 24840.0, 25240.0, 25400.0, 25750.0, 26300.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 24860.0. Stop-Loss 24550.0. Take-Profit 25240.0, 25400.0, 25750.0, 26300.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 24550.0. Stop-Loss 24860.0. Take-Profit 24425.0, 24050.0, 23750.0

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: There is expected to reduce inventories in the US oil storage reservoirs
20/06/2018

Current dynamics
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday evening, US oil inventories fell by 3.016 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks increased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate stocks increased by 757,000 barrels. Nevertheless, this did not prevent the growth of oil prices on Wednesday. Brent crude oil futures rose 0.48% to $ 75.44 per barrel. The spot price for WTI oil at the beginning of the European session was close to $ 65.50 per barrel, which is about $ 0.6 higher than the opening price of the trading day.
The US Energy Information Administration's report on oil and petroleum products in the country's storage facilities will be released on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT, and investors will closely follow this publication.
As expected, commercial oil and oil products in the country's warehouses fell by 1.898 million barrels in the week of June 9-15.
This is positive information that can support oil price quotes.
Nevertheless, the main focus of the oil market participants will be focused on the OPEC meeting, which, as expected, can make important statements regarding the mitigation of the oil production reduction program. The OPEC meeting will begin on Thursday and will last until the end of the trading week.
Last month, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced plans to soften the terms of the OPEC+ agreement and increase oil production. The OPEC+ agreement on production reduction came into force in January 2017, and since then oil prices have risen by about 35%. The agreement expires at the end of 2018.
OPEC member Saudi Arabia and the non-cartel Russia insisted on increasing production. Iran's oil minister does not expect that this week the OPEC countries will agree on an increase in production. On Tuesday, he said that Tehran is against any increase.
If the member countries of the agreement do not agree on an increase in oil production, then oil prices will start to rise again. With the reverse scenario and an increase in production (expected to be 1 million barrels per day) prices could fall by about $ 15 per barrel.
Last Friday, a weekly report was released from the American oil service company Baker Hughes, according to which the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US increased again by 1 unit and currently stands at 863 units (against 862, 861, 859 and 844 in the past weeks). The growth of this indicator is another negative factor for the oil market and for oil prices.
Simultaneous growth in oil production in OPEC and the US can break the bullish trend of oil. This is especially true in the unfolding trade war between the US and China.

Support levels: 63.70, 62.00, 61.00
Resistance levels: 65.50, 67.00, 68.00, 68.85, 70.00, 71.25, 72.80, 74.00, 75.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 64.80. Stop-Loss 65.90. Take-Profit 64.00, 63.00, 62.00, 61.00
Buy Stop 65.90. Stop-Loss 64.80. Take-Profit 67.00, 68.00, 68.85, 70.00, 71.25, 72.80, 74.00, 75.00

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: negative dynamics prevails
25/06/2018
Current dynamics
The main US stock indices rose on Friday, mainly due to oil and gas sector securities against the backdrop of a restrained OPEC decision to increase oil production. S&P500 rose by 0.2% on Friday to 2,754.88 points, although it lost 24.78 points, or 0.9%, over the week.
DJIA on Friday increased by 119.19 points (+0.5%), to 24580.89 points. However, for the week also fell, losing 509.59 points, or 2%.
Since mid-June, the main US stock indexes are declining. The escalation of international trade conflicts, or rather, the escalation of the contradictions in the US trade relations with other major partners such as China, the EU, Canada, contribute to the fact that investors escape from the risks of buying high-yield assets of the stock markets. In this situation, the dollar is a protective asset. Additional pressure on the stock indices is the actions of the Fed. As you know, in mid-June, the Fed raised the rate by 0.25% and signaled a higher rate of tightening of monetary policy.
US President Donald Trump on Friday threatened to introduce a 20% duty on cars from the EU after the European Commission began to impose duties on various American products. The EU took a response to the introduction of import duties in the United States on the import of European steel and aluminum in the amount of 25% and 10%, respectively.
Earlier, Donald Trump instructed his administration to additionally draw up a list of Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion, for which duties will be introduced. Trump accuses China of violating intellectual property rights and technology theft, as well as in disproportionate import duties and restrictions on the importation of American goods into the country.
China immediately reacted to Washington's actions, saying that "if the US side completely lost the mind and published a new list, the Chinese side will be forced to take comprehensive quantitative and qualitative measures and give a decisive respond".
In both cases, import duties in the United States and China come into force on July 6.
On Sunday, US President Donald Trump called on all countries that have established artificial trade barriers and duties to eliminate them. "The United States insists that all countries that have established artificial trade barriers and duties on goods coming to them, eliminate these duties and barriers, otherwise they will face more than reciprocity from the United States", he wrote in his Twitter.
Investors are worried about the increasing deterioration of trade relations in the world. According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, over the last week, investors have withdrawn the largest since 2016, the volume of funds from equity funds, financial instruments and bonds of investment grade emerging markets.
Shares of industrial, agricultural and automotive companies fell last week. DJIA on Thursday finished with losses eighth consecutive session. This is the longest such series in more than a year.

Support levels: 24425.0, 24050.0, 23800.0, 23120.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 24800.0, 25400.0, 25750.0, 26200.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 24700.0. Stop-Loss 24300.0. Take-Profit 24800.0, 25400.0, 25750.0, 26200.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 24300.0. Stop-Loss 24700.0. Take-Profit 24050.0, 23800.0, 23120.0, 22450.0

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: investors' pessimism prevails
02/07/2018
Current dynamics
Major US stock indexes began a new month and a quarter with a fall. On Monday, US and world stock indices are falling amid escalation of international trade conflicts, weak economic data on China, deterioration of the political situation in the German government.
The strongest decline is - of banks shares, automobile companies and firms connected with the raw materials sphere.
Trump is considering the possibility of imposing duties on imports of cars in the US at a rate of 20%, including from Europe.
The presidential administration is currently studying this issue.
Discussing the course of the negotiations on the revision of the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada (NAFTA), Trump said that "if they do not like it, I will tax the cars they bring to the US, and that's serious".
Since mid-June, the main US stock indexes are declining. And today is not an exception. Pessimism of investors and negative dynamics of stock indices prevail.

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of the trading day on Monday, the DJIA is down, coming close to a strong support level of 24050.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the growth from the level of 15650.0 in the wave that began in January 2016. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level 0 % are near the mark of 26620.0).
The breakdown of the support levels 24050.0, 23800.0 (EMA50 on the weekly chart) will significantly increase the risks of breaking the bullish trend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts recommend short positions.
The first signal for the resumption of the upward dynamics will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level 24425.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The breakdown of resistance level 24650.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will confirm the resumption of the upward dynamics and bullish trend of DJIA.
The nearest growth target is resistance level 25400.0 (June highs). In the event of a breakdown of the resistance level 25400.0, the DJIA will head towards resistance levels 25750.0, 26620.0 (absolute and annual highs).
Support levels: 24050.0, 23800.0, 23120.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 24425.0, 24650.0, 25400.0, 25750.0, 26200.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 24350.0. Stop-Loss 23950.0. Take-Profit 24425.0, 24650.0, 25400.0, 25750.0, 26200.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 23950.0. Stop-Loss 24350.0. Take-Profit 23800.0, 23120.0, 22450.0

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Market expectations
05/07/2018
The central event on Thursday will be the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the minutes from the June Fed meeting. The publication of the protocol is extremely important for determining the course of the current policy of the Fed and the prospects for raising the interest rate in the US, because recently, from the leaders of the Federal Reserve more often you can hear statements that testify to the Fed's inclination to accelerate the rate of interest rate increase.
Volatility during the publication of the protocol is usually increased, since the text of the protocol often contains either changes or clarifying the details of the outcome of the previous FOMC meeting.
Also, market participants will follow the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, which will start at 10:00 (GMT). Volatility in the pound trade in this period of time may rise sharply, because Mark Carney is able to unfold the markets with his unexpected statements. If he does not touch upon the questions of the monetary policy of the Bank of England, the reaction to his speech will be weak.
It is also necessary to pay attention to the publication of a block of important macro data from the United States in the period from 12:15 to 14:00 (GMT). Among other data - the publication of the ADP report on employment in the private sector in the US in June. This report usually has a strong impact on the market and the dollar quotes. Although there is usually no direct correlation with Non-Farm Payrolls, the ADP report is considered the harbinger of the official report of the US Department of Labor on the overall state of the labor market in the country. Strong data positively affects the dollar. The number of employees in the US private sector is expected to increase by 190,000 (against +178,000 in May). Reducing the result could negatively affect the dollar.
Thus, on Thursday an extremely volatile trading day is expected, especially in the American trading session.
Support levels: 1.3210, 1.3195, 1.3105, 1.3035, 1.3000, 1.2900
Resistance levels: 1.3260, 1.3320, 1.3410, 1.3500

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3210. Stop-Loss 1.3260. Take-Profit 1.3195, 1.3105, 1.3035, 1.3000, 1.2900
Buy Stop 1.3260. Stop-Loss 1.3210. Take-Profit 1.3320, 1.3410, 1.3500

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: investors' optimism rose
09/07/2018
Current dynamics
Investors enthusiastically met with a strong report on the US labor market, published last Friday, as well as information about the next reduction in the deficit of the US foreign trade balance.
According to the data presented, the deficit of trade in goods and services in the US in May fell by 6.6% compared to the previous month, amounting to $ 43.05 billion. Thus, the deficit of foreign trade in May was the lowest since October 2016.
At the same time, although unemployment rose to 4.0% from 3.8% in May, the number of jobs outside the country's agriculture increased by 213 000 in June (the forecast was +200 000). Also upward, NFP data for the previous two months were revised.
The number of jobs outside of US agriculture increases for 93 consecutive months, which is the longest such period in the history of such statistics, and speaks of a strong labor market.
Steady hiring of workers and low unemployment indicate that the US labor market remains a strong place in the country's economy since the end of the recession nine years ago. At present, activity in other sectors seems to be accelerating as well. Some economists predict that the country's GDP growth in the second quarter exceeded 4% per annum for the first time since 2014.
The main US stock indexes today continued to rise against the background of strong macroeconomic indicators for the US, published last week. The escalation of the US trade contradictions with other countries, for the time being, seems to be taking a back seat.

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of the trading day on Monday, DJIA is growing. And the growth is already the fourth trading day. Strong support levels of 24100.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 24050.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the growth from the level of 15650.0 in the wave, which began in January 2016. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci 0% level are near the mark of 26620.0) have stopped falling DJIA in the end of the last month.
At the beginning of the European session, DJIA is trading at a strong resistance level of 24580.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Breakdown of this resistance level will confirm the resumption of the upward dynamics and bullish trend of DJIA.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of buyers.
The nearest growth target is resistance level 25400.0 (June highs). In the event of a breakdown of the resistance level 25400.0, the DJIA will head towards resistance levels 25750.0, 26620.0 (absolute and annual highs).
In the alternative scenario, the breakdown of the support levels 24050.0, 23800.0 (EMA50 on the weekly chart) will significantly increase the risks of breaking the bullish trend.
Support levels: 24380.0, 24100.0, 24050.0, 23800.0, 23120.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 24580.0, 25000.0, 25400.0, 25750.0, 26200.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 24610.0. Stop-Loss 24460.0. Take-Profit 25000.0, 25400.0, 25750.0, 26200.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 24460.0. Stop-Loss 24610.0. Take-Profit 24380.0, 24100.0, 24050.0, 23800.0, 23120.0, 22450.0

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: indices retain positive dynamics
13/07/2018
Current situation
American stock indexes retain a positive dynamics, developing an upward correction.
Earlier in the week, the stock market saw a large-scale sale in the light of renewed fears about trade relations between the US and China.
As you know, the White House announced its intention to introduce additional 10-percent duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion.
Previously, Trump threatened to impose duties on all exports from China, which is $ 505 billion a year.
Nevertheless, the threat of an escalation of trade contradictions between the US and China has so far come to the fore.
US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin on Thursday rejected the possibility of consequences of the introduction of duties announced by the administration of US President Donald Trump. Mnuchin said that the US economy will not suffer as a result of these duties.
Investors focus on the reports of the largest US companies and on positive macro statistics coming from the US, indicating the acceleration of the growth of the American economy.
The producer price index rose in June, which was another sign of increased inflationary pressures in the US. The index of final demand (PPI), which displays the cost of goods and services, appointed by companies, in June rose by 0.3%.
Compared to the same period of the previous year, PPI in June grew by 3.4%, which was the strongest annual growth since November 2011.
The consumer price index in June increased by 2.9% compared to the same period of the previous year, showing the strongest growth since 2012.
Even if the indices are down today, they will end the week in positive territory anyway.

Support and resistance levels
While DJIA is trading above the key support levels of 24130.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 24050.0 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the growth from the level of 15650.0 in the wave, which began in January 2016. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci 0% level are near the mark of 26620.0), positive dynamics remain, and the bullish trend is not threatened.
Breakdown of the local resistance level of 24940.0 (July highs) will accelerate the recovery and growth of the DJIA. In the event of a breakdown of the resistance level 25400.0 (June highs), the DJIA will head towards the resistance levels 25750.0, 26620.0 (absolute and annual highs).
The signal for sales will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 24630.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Support levels: 24630.0, 24400.0, 24130.0, 24050.0, 23800.0, 23120.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 24940.0, 25000.0, 25400.0, 25750.0, 26200.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 25020.0. Stop-Loss 24880.0. Take-Profit 25400.0, 25750.0, 26200.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 24880.0. Stop-Loss 25020.0. Take-Profit 24600.0, 24400.0, 24130.0, 24050.0, 23800.0, 23120.0, 22450.0

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: Demand for the dollar persists
16/07/2018
Current dynamics
Despite the continuing, and even accelerating, growth of the US economy, some economists still believe that in the US, in about two years, a recession may begin.
This means that the growth of the economy may slow from the middle of next year, and towards its end become zero. The probability of such a scenario is 85%.
The basis of such assumptions is the declining difference in yields of 2-year and 10-year US bonds. If this trend continues, then, as historical observations show, in another 12 months a recession may begin. This is a long-term negative scenario for the dynamics of the dollar.
Meanwhile, the dollar continues to be in demand and strengthened amid expectations of further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, as well as positive macro statistics coming from the US.
Today at 12:30 (GMT) data on retail sales in the US will be published. A relative decline in sales is expected (+ 0.5% in June against + 0.8% in May). If the data is even weaker, the dollar may fall.
Nevertheless, investors will wait for new signals from the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, regarding monetary policy.
Hard Powell rhetoric coupled with positive forecasts will again force investors to buy the dollar. Possibly, Powell will also touch upon the topic of US trade relations with China. As you know, last week the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin ruled out the possibility of negative impact on the US economy from the introduction of duties. Mnuchin said that the US economy will not suffer as a result of this.
Powell will speak twice this week, on Tuesday (14:00 GMT) and on Wednesday (also at 14:00).
If Powell confirms the Fed's desire to further raise rates in the US, then gold will continue to decline in price.
In conditions of an increase in the interest rate, the investment attractiveness of the dollar is growing, and of gold is falling. The likelihood that the Fed will raise rates this year four times rose to 60%. This is one of the highest levels this year.

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of the trading day on Monday, the XAU / USD is growing against the background of a weakening dollar.
Nevertheless, below the resistance levels of 1250.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), the downward trend predominates.
The signal for purchases will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1250.00. In this case, corrective growth can last up to resistance level 1268.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of the support level of 1237.00 (annual lows) will confirm the return of XAU / USD to the global downtrend, which began in October 2012.
Support levels: 1237.00, 1220.00
Resistance levels: 1248.00, 1250.00, 1268.00, 1277.00, 1283.00, 1295.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1252.00. Take-Profit 1273.00, 1220.00, 1200.00
Buy Stop 1252.00. Stop-Loss 1239.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1277.00, 1283.00, 1295.00