Thoughts on trading after 3 years

[donno1580]

Hi all, getting involved and contributing after more than 3 years of surfing, and frankly tired of all the write up's/videos on You Tube based on historical performance(What the chart/instrument did) as though it will happen time and time again!

I contribute the following..

1. There is no pattern to Currency Trading other than that prices go up and down, based on traders input.
2. There is no "Holy Grail" setup/indicator, my Spam box is full of supposedly magic offers of setups guaranteeing to make me very wealthy.. AS LONG as i pay for the offer!
Every day there are new offers from the same/ new stream of Vendors with other fancy looking indicators or trading robots that guarantee the same results as the last ones... as long as i pay!!
If these offers were so good anyway then why bother everybody for money if they could get on with it and make millions of their own?
3. Fundamentals and Technical analysis..is what drives the pairs against one another.
4. Trading lower time frame charts are suicidal WITHOUT higher time frame consideration.

In saying that, i offer my strategy that uses multiples of a favorite Moving Average among Traders namely the SMA50 (50 period Simple moving average)

Take a One Hour chart and slap a SMA50 and a SMA200 onto it.

Why a SMA200? well the SMA200 on the H1 chart is the same as a SMA50 on the H4 chart (50*4=200}

Now You have higher time frame reference.

Now take a 600SMA and slap it onto a M5 chart. (SMA50 on the hour chart, Sma100 on the M30 chart..SMA200 on the M15

chart and the M5 is three times lower than M15 therefor 3*200 = 600

Now you have got an M5 chart that is that is the same as he H1 chart with a SMA50 on it.

Well if i don't get shot down, i would be glad to continue with my lower time fame entry strategy.

 

[donno1580]

Hi All,

Thanks Sharky for the like, coming from you i believe i "have not been shot down yet"

And i have my own thread wow!

Thanks for the very informative and professional site.

My setup..

I like to think my "Style" is a combination of swing AND scalp trading, my thinking on this is that if you take a one hour chart and attach a 50 period simple moving average and just scroll back, you can not help noticing those lovely swings all you have to do is have a timed entry to "get onto the ride" in future.

Now i am NOT knocking straight in and out scalping for a few pips, repeated throughout the day many times, as firstly i do not think that i am that smart, secondly how long is a couple of days?, a week?, a month?, a year?... not very long, a few of the latter have gone past quite briskly actually.

i have this problem of all the risk being at trade entry, and therefor all the emotion, "pull the trigger" angst, and find it difficult to deal with having to repeat over and over, over short periods of time where a nice run is obliterated by a few bad ones.

i have a strategy that works like this..

Higher time frame analysis, lower time frame entry timing and, oh.. it is not necessary for me to sit and peer at my screen all day,.. i attach my screen shot and invite comment, let's see if i am still in the air

 

[donno1580]

Hi all,

First off, before i transmit the following bits and pieces of software i use for functionality purposes, i give thanks and credit to those out there who eagerly share their coding of the wide.. i mean wide range of indicators for the various platforms.

To The Outstanding brokerage, for me, from day one, for consistency, support, reliability, friendliness and professionalism, namely FXPRO.

And the best Trading Platform, in my opinion ever, Metatrader 4 which i like to think i know like the back of my hand.

My scalp/swing strategy as per my last post, encompassing high and low time frame charts namely 5 min and H1, i attach the necessary indicators and templates.

Copy the indicators and paste them into(Mt4) File; Open data folder; MQL4; Indicators folder.
Copy the Templates to, File; Open data folder; Templates folder.

Restart the MT4 Platform, right click on the chart and select the appropriate template.

Open a one hour chart, right click on the chart select the H1 template.

Open a five minute chart , right click on the chart and select M5 template.

On the top left of the MT4 Platform click Window; Tile vertically.

You should see as per my screenshot of my previous posting.

Now that you are set up, note the H1 trend and wait for a pullback on the M5 Chart invariably at either the Euro or Us open, wait for a Buy/Sell alert from the Trend indicator, pull the trigger(incorporating the mandatory money management) either ride until the next H1 trend change or set a take profit at 50 pips or a relevant support or resistance level.

Any Questions?

 

[donno1580]

Hi sherlyanas

If i confuse you with " Trading lower time frame charts are suicidal WITHOUT higher time frame consideration "

If you decide to "get closer to the action" by trading lower time frames, simply put, look at a higher time frame chart to get a sense of direction.

 

[rossored]

this somewhat depends on your trading style; if you're trading short term positions then usually a 15m chart will suffice, perhaps with a 5m chart to manage your entry if you so choose. Beyond that, maybe a 1hr chart but for day trading, I personally wouldn't look much beyond that unless you're planning to hold positions overnight.

 

[donno1580]

Hello all,

Something else for you Guys

i have been distracted from proceedings for a few months so resorted back to an earlier strategy, which has been very kind over the past eight weeks or so.

Here goes:

NZDUSD, EURJPY, not for any other reason but i like these pairs for return and relative stability.
1 Hour Chart
SMA50 (50 period simple moving average), a favorite out there..
Default Setting MACD Histogram only (12,26,9) I attach mine as the alert is handy at trend transition.

That is it!!

Rules, Moving Average Crosses DO NOT WORK, so .. add a filter that does (SMA50), the Pivot Point is the last high/low behind the SMA50 plus MACD Transition Signal

Attached is a screenshot, that's it, does not take much figuring after that... Exit is at next pivot ie: let your profits run

Enjoy

 

[hatemypips]

Hi all, getting involved and contributing after more than 3 years of surfing, and frankly tired of all the write up's/videos on You Tube based on historical performance(What the chart/instrument did) as though it will happen time and time again!

I contribute the following..

1. There is no pattern to Currency Trading other than that prices go up and down, based on traders input.
2. There is no "Holy Grail" setup/indicator, my Spam box is full of supposedly magic offers of setups guaranteeing to make me very wealthy.. AS LONG as i pay for the offer!
Every day there are new offers from the same/ new stream of Vendors with other fancy looking indicators or trading robots that guarantee the same results as the last ones... as long as i pay!!
If these offers were so good anyway then why bother everybody for money if they could get on with it and make millions of their own?
3. Fundamentals and Technical analysis..is what drives the pairs against one another.
4. Trading lower time frame charts are suicidal WITHOUT higher time frame consideration.

In saying that, i offer my strategy that uses multiples of a favorite Moving Average among Traders namely the SMA50 (50 period Simple moving average)

Take a One Hour chart and slap a SMA50 and a SMA200 onto it.

Why a SMA200? well the SMA200 on the H1 chart is the same as a SMA50 on the H4 chart (50*4=200}

Now You have higher time frame reference.

Now take a 600SMA and slap it onto a M5 chart. (SMA50 on the hour chart, Sma100 on the M30 chart..SMA200 on the M15

chart and the M5 is three times lower than M15 therefor 3*200 = 600

Now you have got an M5 chart that is that is the same as he H1 chart with a SMA50 on it.

Well if i don't get shot down, i would be glad to continue with my lower time fame entry strategy.

Any insights on fundamental analysis apart of technical advice? have you personally tested MA crosses on history to check if it gives trading edge?

 

[donno1580]

Moving average crosses do not work therefore a Single 50 Period SMA filter, and yes it is working at the moment live.

 

[tomorton]

Moving average crosses do not work therefore a Single 50 Period SMA filter, and yes it is working at the moment live.

Yes, MA XO's do not work well as immediate entry signals. But they do provide additional information about an established trend. Therefore, the inclusion of two or more averages on a chart, if you're a trend-follower, is valuable and the information the pair or pairs provide by crossing over should not be ignored. Two MA's gives you more than twice the information of one MA - if and only if you are trend-following.

 

[donno1580]

So using a SMA50 as a trend filter on the H1 chart and the EMA Cross of the MACD for entries?

 

[tomorton]

So using a SMA50 as a trend filter on the H1 chart and the EMA Cross of the MACD for entries?

I don't put any faith in MACD or any off-chart indicators.

 

[hatemypips]

Moving average crosses do not work therefore a Single 50 Period SMA filter, and yes it is working at the moment live.

Do you have enough statistical proof to claim that?

 

[NVP]

a few indicators are ok......thousands are not and merely poor imitators of the original versions

all you have to do with indicators is learn their limitations.......then work to their strengths and leveraged them

calling an indicator rubbish or lagging or useless is not seeing the full picture

everything in trading is lagging !

moving averages are one of the most basic and simplest things you can put on a chart or incorporate into an indicator

so that’s why i like them .......they are dumbass with no surprises or distortions .......a workhorse you can use generically across all markets and timeframes ......

again calling the ema better than the sma is perhaps a little pointless ......they simply offer different settings .....like calling the 20 sma better than the 50 sma ......they just show things different ....

work out what you are trying to do and do it .....

N

 

[NVP]

I don't put any faith in MACD or any off-chart indicators.

maybe......

im a big fan of trading trend continuations ......using the MACD crossover of the 2 ma lines back into the already initiated trend is not a bad place to start looking at continuation indicators

N

 

[tomorton]

maybe......

im a big fan of trading trend continuations ......using the MACD crossover of the 2 ma lines back into the already initiated trend is not a bad place to start looking at continuation indicators

N

Maybe, but what about when the indicator says do X and the naked price formation says don't do X yet - or even do Y?

KISS says look at price only: e.g. look for a pullback day in the uptrend and set a buy just above the high: this incorporates confirmation before entry and also identifies the stop level, which is argued by many to be more important than the entry.

 

[donno1580]

i do not know if i am just not looking properly but why has no one made a fuss over Trading Central's plugin indicator?? it is in my opinion bloomin wonderful for quick intraday in and out targets especially when the markets are volatile

 

[NVP]

Maybe, but what about when the indicator says do X and the naked price formation says don't do X yet - or even do Y?

KISS says look at price only: e.g. look for a pullback day in the uptrend and set a buy just above the high: this incorporates confirmation before entry and also identifies the stop level, which is argued by many to be more important than the entry.

whatever floats you boat Tom.....I am more an intraday trader anyway

 

[NVP]

i do not know if i am just not looking properly but why has no one made a fuss over Trading Central's plugin indicator?? it is in my opinion bloomin wonderful for quick intraday in and out targets especially when the markets are volatile

do share and tell us more ....always happy to take a look

 

[donno1580]

ok so it's a Trading Central plugin indicator supplied by most Brokers that Subscribe to Trading Central for the
service, it updates real time as the technical (analysis) intraday levels progress. At first sight i discounted it until i paid more attention.
1) the Technical Analysis and "preference" scenario rotating about a pivot point on a 30 minute chart and 5
0 period SMA, it offers tight intraday technical (target) levels..usually aiming for the second "target" and possibly closing half the position at the first target/level.
2) often there are pullbacks to the Pivot Point affording the Trader a tight stop and therefor higher gearing.
3) their instrument recommendations are EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDUSD
4) Here's the kicker.. the "Preference" scenario obviously, is not always correct, BUT there is then the "Alternative Scenario" which is right there on the chart in front of you

 

[hatemypips]

i do not know if i am just not looking properly but why has no one made a fuss over Trading Central's plugin indicator?? it is in my opinion bloomin wonderful for quick intraday in and out targets especially when the markets are volatile

They are dead company. I mean methods and strategies they use are obsolete, good only for making random guesses and thinking that you made informed decision.