This is very interesting

[joseph1986]

So here is the situation, graduated last summer with a stat degree and was playing around with the markets and ended up turning a 5000 demo account to 100,000 in 2 months. I can unequivocally say that the markets can be predicted 6 out of 10 days. The idea is to not trade on these key dates. What pisses me off is the whole margin situation. Since my model consists of not trying to predict the market but predict where it isn't suppose to go I have some issues with going in early and then having a bigger lot with margins going red and then finding out that I would've been in profit after 4 hours.

 

[joseph1986]

any suggestions?

 

[trendie]

how about going in 4 hours later?

what you seem to be saying is that you think you can be right, but your drawdown is so huge it blows your account.

is there a price point where you know the market is going your way, so the trade goes in your direction straight away?

or, trade smaller size so you dont get a "red" condition.

 

[joseph1986]

ok thats called draw down. How about if my forecast isn't accurate enough to tell me that the opening is the lowest it will be or vice versa? The next time I'm up at 2 am I can post the forecasts and you can tell me what you think

 

[Pedro30]

You got caught in the volatility trap. I don't think your system works, but the market is so volatile, if you can stay in position you will be in profits soon enough. But that doesn't make a working system. It just means your account can withstand opposing moves...

 

[trendie]

the methodology perhaps needs a price, beyond which, the trade has failed.
that marker could be used to quantify the risk, and the appropriate scale size to ensure the trade is stopped out, rather than going into margin call territory.

some back-testing should show what the max drawdown occurred, and average drawdown,maybe, and work on that as a guide-line.

 

[joseph1986]

figured it out, predict the dow opening next day relative to last close and you control europe.
Also, if the Dow goes below 15350 then doomsday may be here. The momentum is almost exactly the same as the last recession even though it's fighting. Don't listen to this whole situation on oil and china etc.
This is essentially companies who loaned out money from zero interest rates days scared as **** that they may have to start paying more while their mergers domestically and investments overseas isn't netting enough money. Peter schiff may be giggling all the way to the bank because gold just did something that was suppose to happen in late 2017

 

[dratsum]

If u post the algo and it's not ridiculously absurd u will attract more interest. If u think it's too good to post then u shouldn't b talking about it, but in my experience the odds are against it being viable.

As an alternative and what u really need is screen time learning where it's logical to enter and stop out when wrong. If your algo is reasonable then a few reasonably placed false starts won't cost much relative to the final reward when u catch the move that runs to your predicted target. But u must begin to accept if the drawdowns aren't within permissible tolerances then the fact your prediction is eventually proven right is meaningless .....because there are numerous trends and counter trends between the time of your current (what I would call) blind entry and when price reaches your predicted target.

 

[joseph1986]

If u post the algo and it's not ridiculously absurd u will attract more interest. If u think it's too good to post then u shouldn't b talking about it, but in my experience the odds are against it being viable.

As an alternative and what u really need is screen time learning where it's logical to enter and stop out when wrong. If your algo is reasonable then a few reasonably placed false starts won't cost much relative to the final reward when u catch the move that runs to your predicted target. But u must begin to accept if the drawdowns aren't within permissible tolerances then the fact your prediction is eventually proven right is meaningless .....because there are numerous trends and counter trends between the time of your current (what I would call) blind entry and when price reaches your predicted target.

will post the prediction for ftse today around 1 am if you are up, it's free money if you want it
not sure if i would post the algo but i will think about it

 

[joseph1986]

buy at open sell at FIVE EIGHT FIFTY
if it goes below open buy at FIVE SIX NINE NINE OR FIVE SIX EIGHT ONE IT MAY GO HIT THE FIVE 920'S BUT BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY.
You're welcome

 

[joseph1986]

probably will close at five eight zero seven give or take 22 points. I thought of doing subscriber based signals but it would be out of charity since I wouldn't really need to

 

[joseph1986]

to be honest the low may just be the opening. Seems like thats what the algo is stating, technically it cant go lower the five770 with the updated opening prices. hopefully you didn't keep your short orders over the weekend

 

[joseph1986]

shouldn't go above five eight fifty unless very volatile which may go up to five eight eighty should close around five seven two nine give or take twenty five points. if you sell at open half your normal lot that should limit your drawdown and the other half if it goes higher you should make a healthy profit.
you're welcome

 

[joseph1986]

bye bye 3:25 am est

 

[joseph1986]

revised
five seven nine six

 

[joseph1986]

Anyone know how to make these arabs shut up about these supply news releases? Everything was well until they came in ****

 

[joseph1986]

pm for ftse prediction need some charting wizards

 

[joseph1986]

five little piggies went to the market and saw
eight
zero shaped donuts with everyone having
zero dollars to spend the left for sample somewhere else...this is how their day ended but before

They went to the basement and the
five little pigs saw
seven
eight shaped donuts and an old man gave them
nine dollars to spend, they left and were happy