The Word That Breaks All Strategies

[mamz]

Hi All,
This forum and many others are full of all types of strategies, indicators, technicals, fundimentals, you name it, but there is one factor that makes all used strategies and indicatores as if they are not existing. That is NEWS that effect markets which turn things upside down.
So, I started this thread for all you falks to talk about these news and how they impact the market and to share experiences, and most of all how to avoid the impact on open trades.
Here you go make the news.
Good luck all
:idea:
MAMZ

 

[TWI]

If you have the correct strategy it will thrive on news because significant news creates direction in price and direction in price creates screwed directional probability and that is net profit to a disciplined system.

I do not even have a news feed displayed on my desk. Just price. I know people who trade on the news by focusing all day on a Reuters screen so it can work but it is always harder working out what it means than letting price tell you.

 

[mamz]

Hi twalker,
Thank you for posting.
Strategey is something you decide based on the variuos factors you are aware of, but when some news come out like the OPEC increase in production announcement, of course it has affected stocks, currencies and the market in general.
So how one could have predicted that news and take it in his strategy.
Thanks
---------
MAMZ

 

[SOCRATES]

Hi twalker,
Thank you for posting.
Strategey is something you decide based on the variuos factors you are aware of, but when some news come out like the OPEC increase in production announcement, of course it has affected stocks, currencies and the market in general.
So how one could have predicted that news and take it in his strategy.
Thanks
---------
MAMZ

By not listening to the news itself but looking intensely and deeply into the future.
It is only time you are using for this, and intuitive input, that's all.

 

[TWI]

mamz,
A lot of things here are written about prediction. People think that to be successful trading you need to predict things. Fact is prediction in trading is, over time, no better than punting. IMHO trading is about finding an edge or a >50% probability. It is actually reactive not pro-active. It is pointless trying to predict if an interest announcement or Opec meeting will go one way or the other. The best bet will already be priced in.
Better to get facts and then jump on board with price once it starts to move. Clever bit is knowing what known facts are worth in terms of price movement and when a move will continue rather than fade. This is reason for lots of ridiculous lines and indicators on lunatic traders charts.

 

[SOCRATES]

mamz,
A lot of things here are written about prediction. People think that to be successful trading you need to predict things. Fact is prediction in trading is, over time, no better than punting. IMHO trading is about finding an edge or a >50% probability. It is actually reactive not pro-active. It is pointless trying to predict if an interest announcement or Opec meeting will go one way or the other. The best bet will already be priced in.
Better to get facts and then jump on board with price once it starts to move. Clever bit is knowing what known facts are worth in terms of price movement and when a move will continue rather than fade. This is reason for lots of ridiculous lines and indicators on lunatic traders charts.

Ah ! ......I have just come in and spotted this.

I quote "the best bet will already be priced in"

Is it not priced in, in advance of a result ?

Is this not predicting or something else ?

And if it is not predicting, then what is it ?

 

[mamz]

mamz,
A lot of things here are written about prediction. People think that to be successful trading you need to predict things. Fact is prediction in trading is, over time, no better than punting. IMHO trading is about finding an edge or a >50% probability. It is actually reactive not pro-active. It is pointless trying to predict if an interest announcement or Opec meeting will go one way or the other. The best bet will already be priced in.
Better to get facts and then jump on board with price once it starts to move. Clever bit is knowing what known facts are worth in terms of price movement and when a move will continue rather than fade. This is reason for lots of ridiculous lines and indicators on lunatic traders charts.

""This is reason for lots of ridiculous lines and indicators on lunatic traders charts""

Hi Twalker,

You seem to be also pro - without tools trading Twalker.
I think a trader can not be away from his environment and players on the arena.
--------------
Mamz

 

[JTrader]

Drawdown.

 

[DaxDestroyer]

Drawdown.

Why do you revive such a dead thread?

 

[JTrader]

It showed up in the "similar threads" list. See below.

 

[tomorton]

At the risk of continuing a dead topic, trading news is a heroic ambition but stems from a desire to 'beat' the market. Why try to do that? Why not let the most acute trading and investment brains on the planet work ouot what the news means and then do what they do? After all, their decisions are telegraphed instantaneously - the market moves up or down. All we have to do is follow the trend.

In any case, all chartists have seen fundamental news being continually predicted by chart action - admittedly, we would not know what the news would be precisely but we would know something was coming and that it would continue and / or amplify the prevailing trend.

I suspect mamz has hit the wall by now.

 

[DaxDestroyer]

It showed up in the "similar threads" list. See below.

Ah understood

 

[DaxDestroyer]

At the risk of continuing a dead topic, trading news is a heroic ambition but stems from a desire to 'beat' the market. Why try to do that? Why not let the most acute trading and investment brains on the planet work ouot what the news means and then do what they do? After all, their decisions are telegraphed instantaneously - the market moves up or down. All we have to do is follow the trend.

In any case, all chartists have seen fundamental news being continually predicted by chart action - admittedly, we would not know what the news would be precisely but we would know something was coming and that it would continue and / or amplify the prevailing trend.

I suspect mamz has hit the wall by now.

News trading is quite impossible today as we face competition from computers, which read the news and "fire" orders. they even are able to include the revised numbers.
The only chance which remains is to wait like 10 mins until the "big" orders come in and drive the market. This is the train, one can hop on and ride successfully.