The FTSE Monday, 26th September 2005
Fridays results:
Open: 5385
Close: 5413, up 27pts.
Range: 5383 - 5417 [34 point swing].
Month: 117pts up; on par for September.
Dow: 10,419, up 2pts. I favour a down on Monday, purely on the grounds of Rita.
News items of note:
LONDON (Reuters) - 'Chancellor Gordon Brown has set out his stall to succeed Prime Minister Tony Blair, promising that under his leadership there would be no going back to the Labour Party's old, election-losing ways.' - No short term effect on the FTSE.
LONDON (Reuters) - 'A one-billion-pound lawsuit against the Bank of England resumes on Monday with the central bank calling its second witness in its fight related to the collapse of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International.' - No effect.
By Parisa Hafezi TEHRAN (Reuters) - 'Iran threatened on Sunday to halt spot checks of its nuclear sites after the U.N. watchdog passed a resolution requiring Tehran to be reported to the Security Council over its atomic plans.' - Further to a previous post, watch closely. There's a lot of oil in Iran and any disruption would adversely effect all the world markets.
FT.com - 'Gordon Brown accepted on Friday that the economy would not meet his Budget predictions, blaming "more considerable" rises in oil prices than had been expected.' - This was already recognised and factored by a number of market analysts and I don't believe there will be any wirl wind impact on Monday mornings markets.
Oil: $64.29.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Bollinger says an early morning dip followed by a rise; MACD an early rise.
Companies reporting: A mixed bag and enough to make the market move.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: charts, companies and market sentiment point to an up; news is neutral.
Gut feeling: although last week was up and down I still favour a rise for the coming week starting with a 23pt rise.
Will I bet? Yes. I've had seven bets this month and all in the right direction, will Monday break my winning streak!
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Fridays results:
Open: 5385
Close: 5413, up 27pts.
Range: 5383 - 5417 [34 point swing].
Month: 117pts up; on par for September.
Dow: 10,419, up 2pts. I favour a down on Monday, purely on the grounds of Rita.
News items of note:
LONDON (Reuters) - 'Chancellor Gordon Brown has set out his stall to succeed Prime Minister Tony Blair, promising that under his leadership there would be no going back to the Labour Party's old, election-losing ways.' - No short term effect on the FTSE.
LONDON (Reuters) - 'A one-billion-pound lawsuit against the Bank of England resumes on Monday with the central bank calling its second witness in its fight related to the collapse of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International.' - No effect.
By Parisa Hafezi TEHRAN (Reuters) - 'Iran threatened on Sunday to halt spot checks of its nuclear sites after the U.N. watchdog passed a resolution requiring Tehran to be reported to the Security Council over its atomic plans.' - Further to a previous post, watch closely. There's a lot of oil in Iran and any disruption would adversely effect all the world markets.
FT.com - 'Gordon Brown accepted on Friday that the economy would not meet his Budget predictions, blaming "more considerable" rises in oil prices than had been expected.' - This was already recognised and factored by a number of market analysts and I don't believe there will be any wirl wind impact on Monday mornings markets.
Oil: $64.29.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Bollinger says an early morning dip followed by a rise; MACD an early rise.
Companies reporting: A mixed bag and enough to make the market move.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: charts, companies and market sentiment point to an up; news is neutral.
Gut feeling: although last week was up and down I still favour a rise for the coming week starting with a 23pt rise.
Will I bet? Yes. I've had seven bets this month and all in the right direction, will Monday break my winning streak!
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Dave,
Sorry to hear about the bereavement.
Peter,
Did you go for the up on Friday? I think you mentioned in a previous post about a choice of 8 or 21pt rise. Hope you went for the latter.
Rav700,
'A UK Hero day,' you brought a smile to my face.
Yours
UK
'Study the past if you would define the future.' - Confucius
Sorry to hear about the bereavement.
Peter,
Did you go for the up on Friday? I think you mentioned in a previous post about a choice of 8 or 21pt rise. Hope you went for the latter.
Rav700,
'A UK Hero day,' you brought a smile to my face.
Yours
UK
'Study the past if you would define the future.' - Confucius
Thanks UK.
Looked at both UKX and DAX pre open and decided that DAX was the one to go for. Basically as UKX had almost 20 points built in at the open. As it turned out it rose another 20 before taking a breather at around 9-00. If we bounce off 45 then I will look for a long target next resistance at 70.
As it happens I managed a quick 50 points on the DAX as only 10 points were built in at the open.
Therefore I will not be greedy and take things easy for the rest of the day. Will only open if signals are clear.
Good trading to all
Dave
Looked at both UKX and DAX pre open and decided that DAX was the one to go for. Basically as UKX had almost 20 points built in at the open. As it turned out it rose another 20 before taking a breather at around 9-00. If we bounce off 45 then I will look for a long target next resistance at 70.
As it happens I managed a quick 50 points on the DAX as only 10 points were built in at the open.
Therefore I will not be greedy and take things easy for the rest of the day. Will only open if signals are clear.
Good trading to all
Dave
Euro_d said:
That's the way to go, Dave.
50pts is a good shout, made 24pts on the FTSE myself.
I notice the DAX is up 115pts - now where did that come from!
The Dow also up 78pts. Now I fancied a fall today and placed a small bet. Thankfully, and due to not being overly confident, I had common sense to place my open bid far below the opening price. So no loss there. Even so, I got it wrong.
It could all be down to Rita not being too desruptive with the oil.
Yours
UK
The FTSE Tuesday, 27th September 2005
Mondays results:
Open: 5413
Close: 5453, up 39pts. I did bet and gained 22pts.
Range: 5413 - 5456, a 43 point swing.
Month: up 157pts; to date, this is slightly over on my prediction for September.
Dow: 10,428, up 8pts. I favoured a down yesterday. I did bet but placed my short too low to be effected and tomorrow I'm not sure. I still favour the short but I'm not betting.
News items of note:
(Reuters) - 'Chancellor Gordon Brown, Tony Blair's successor-in-waiting, vowed on Monday to press ahead with free market reforms as he made an overt pitch to become Britain's next leader.
Brown's speech to the Labour annual conference was prime ministerial in sweep, ranging from Iraq and Afghanistan to promising Britons he would safeguard their prosperity and equip them to compete with the new tiger economies of China and India.' - In all, this is a positive move and one in which will be reflected in the markets as today has already proved.
Also in regards to the above and well worth reading: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4283550.stm
By TAVIA GRANT AND ROMA LUCIW (globemail.com) - 'In Canada, the benchmark S&P/TSX composite index surpassed the 11,000-mark, rising 107.35 points to 11,011.66. The index is headed for its biggest gain this month and is trading at a five-year high.' - Although it has no direct linkage with the FTSE, should you feel bored with the UK market this may be an interesting one in the coming weeks. It has plenty of oil; plenty of mining companies and it has a greater tenacity towards a long term future then say, the UK or American markets. I don't know of any Internet betting companies who provide a avenue to this market but I would love to go long on this markets future.
Times On Line. Taxes 'must rise' by 3p in the pound - By Andrew Ellson. - 'Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, will have to raise taxes by the equivalent of 3p in the pound after vastly overestimating economic growth, a leading think tank warned today.' - I think that would be a good idea if it keeps the country afloat. But then again, how much is it costing the UK to keep our boys beached in Iraq?
Oil: $66+. Here's the results of an interesting poll by CNN: Have oil and gasoline prices peeked? Of 5700 answers:
Definitely 23%
No way 41%
Too early to say 37%
Charts, and nothing but the charts: No clear indications.
Companies reporting: A poorly matched bunch that may prove a small negative to the market.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: charts are neutral; companies reporting a small negative; News dictates an up; the FTSE has had three up days totalling 104pts and for some this may be considered a too big a leap.
Gut feeling: Strange, but I still see another rise.
Will I bet? Yes and No. I'm not overly confident, therefore, I shall be placing a long to open at 4564 and to close at 4577.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Mondays results:
Open: 5413
Close: 5453, up 39pts. I did bet and gained 22pts.
Range: 5413 - 5456, a 43 point swing.
Month: up 157pts; to date, this is slightly over on my prediction for September.
Dow: 10,428, up 8pts. I favoured a down yesterday. I did bet but placed my short too low to be effected and tomorrow I'm not sure. I still favour the short but I'm not betting.
News items of note:
(Reuters) - 'Chancellor Gordon Brown, Tony Blair's successor-in-waiting, vowed on Monday to press ahead with free market reforms as he made an overt pitch to become Britain's next leader.
Brown's speech to the Labour annual conference was prime ministerial in sweep, ranging from Iraq and Afghanistan to promising Britons he would safeguard their prosperity and equip them to compete with the new tiger economies of China and India.' - In all, this is a positive move and one in which will be reflected in the markets as today has already proved.
Also in regards to the above and well worth reading: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4283550.stm
By TAVIA GRANT AND ROMA LUCIW (globemail.com) - 'In Canada, the benchmark S&P/TSX composite index surpassed the 11,000-mark, rising 107.35 points to 11,011.66. The index is headed for its biggest gain this month and is trading at a five-year high.' - Although it has no direct linkage with the FTSE, should you feel bored with the UK market this may be an interesting one in the coming weeks. It has plenty of oil; plenty of mining companies and it has a greater tenacity towards a long term future then say, the UK or American markets. I don't know of any Internet betting companies who provide a avenue to this market but I would love to go long on this markets future.
Times On Line. Taxes 'must rise' by 3p in the pound - By Andrew Ellson. - 'Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, will have to raise taxes by the equivalent of 3p in the pound after vastly overestimating economic growth, a leading think tank warned today.' - I think that would be a good idea if it keeps the country afloat. But then again, how much is it costing the UK to keep our boys beached in Iraq?
Oil: $66+. Here's the results of an interesting poll by CNN: Have oil and gasoline prices peeked? Of 5700 answers:
Definitely 23%
No way 41%
Too early to say 37%
Charts, and nothing but the charts: No clear indications.
Companies reporting: A poorly matched bunch that may prove a small negative to the market.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: charts are neutral; companies reporting a small negative; News dictates an up; the FTSE has had three up days totalling 104pts and for some this may be considered a too big a leap.
Gut feeling: Strange, but I still see another rise.
Will I bet? Yes and No. I'm not overly confident, therefore, I shall be placing a long to open at 4564 and to close at 4577.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
:cheesy: saj123 said:
Saj123,
You do right to comment. What a pathetic statement to make, on my part. I've done so well of late so why spoil it by falling into the trap of betting for the sake of it.
Although I rate the market as a 60/40 chance it will rise, it's a weak call.
What I was trying to say was, if the market falls, having placed the bet at the set parameters, the chance of me being caught if it goes down is minimal. Whereas, if it rises I stand to gain a small amount. Hence the comment.
Each to his own as they say.
I shall watch the markets open with a indicative mind.
Yours
UK
.
Morning UK et al,
As I write pre open (just) all Europe is called down, profit taking?
DAX could well be the VW/Porsche effect fizzling out, or just simple profit taking.
Anyway, if I can get a short on either UKX or DAX I am there.
RE the 115 point rise, I dont understand either. for me open @ 4938 close @ 4998 is 60 points!
Post UK close it actually fell to 4969, confused, I am!
More later, amm of to trade,
Dave
As I write pre open (just) all Europe is called down, profit taking?
DAX could well be the VW/Porsche effect fizzling out, or just simple profit taking.
Anyway, if I can get a short on either UKX or DAX I am there.
RE the 115 point rise, I dont understand either. for me open @ 4938 close @ 4998 is 60 points!
Post UK close it actually fell to 4969, confused, I am!
More later, amm of to trade,
Dave
mickandpete
Active member
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Re your comments about Canada
I could go on for ever
Canada has Trade surplus Budget surplus
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/canada.html
The crucial part is the production costs of Oil SAnds
With oil prices at above $50 Canada has only just woken up
I could go on for ever
Canada has Trade surplus Budget surplus
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/canada.html
The crucial part is the production costs of Oil SAnds
With oil prices at above $50 Canada has only just woken up
Good advice Sir,
No need to chase trades that anen't there!
I missed the bounce on UKX @ 5466 its now on support @ 53. I will long above short below IF I can see signals.
I see this level as a line in the sand?
DOW future seems flat so might just wait for the open before entering any Euro trade
No need to chase trades that anen't there!
I missed the bounce on UKX @ 5466 its now on support @ 53. I will long above short below IF I can see signals.
I see this level as a line in the sand?
DOW future seems flat so might just wait for the open before entering any Euro trade
The FTSE Wednesday, 28th September 2005
Tuesdays results:
Open: 5453
Close: 5447, down 5pts. No bet.
Range: 5442 - 5471, a 29pt swing.
Month: up 151pts; to date, this is still slightly over on my prediction for September.
Dow: 10,456, up 12pts. The Dow has certainly been through some choppy weather of late and its nice to see it calming down, but I don't think this lull will last very long.
News items of note: As I write, not much to turn the UK markets.
Bloomberg - 'Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell in September to the lowest in almost two years after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast and pushed gasoline prices to a record. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 86.6, the lowest since October 2003, from a revised 105.5 in August, the New York-based research group said today. The index was expected to fall to 95 from 105.6 previously reported for August, based on a Bloomberg News survey of 62 economists.' - Gloomy times ahead for the American markets.
Just a general thought: over the past month I've noticed that the FTSE has been more resilient in regards to the DOW's adverse price movements and this may be put down to four main factors: not as great a reliance on Oil, a more subtle climate, a healthier market and a smaller budget deficit. But my nose is twitching. If the Dow drops, in the near future, by 100pts +, I do believe the FTSE, instead of falling 10 -20pts in dire sympathy, will tumble 50-70pts. We will see.
Oil: $65+.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: No clear indications.
Companies reporting: Another large mixed bag that will add a small impetus to the market.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: charts are neutral; companies reporting will be a small plus; very little news of any relevance.
Gut feeling: I can't see the FTSE doing much.
Will I bet? No. As it stands, the FTSE is too close to a fifty - fifty call so I'll pass.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Tuesdays results:
Open: 5453
Close: 5447, down 5pts. No bet.
Range: 5442 - 5471, a 29pt swing.
Month: up 151pts; to date, this is still slightly over on my prediction for September.
Dow: 10,456, up 12pts. The Dow has certainly been through some choppy weather of late and its nice to see it calming down, but I don't think this lull will last very long.
News items of note: As I write, not much to turn the UK markets.
Bloomberg - 'Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell in September to the lowest in almost two years after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast and pushed gasoline prices to a record. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 86.6, the lowest since October 2003, from a revised 105.5 in August, the New York-based research group said today. The index was expected to fall to 95 from 105.6 previously reported for August, based on a Bloomberg News survey of 62 economists.' - Gloomy times ahead for the American markets.
Just a general thought: over the past month I've noticed that the FTSE has been more resilient in regards to the DOW's adverse price movements and this may be put down to four main factors: not as great a reliance on Oil, a more subtle climate, a healthier market and a smaller budget deficit. But my nose is twitching. If the Dow drops, in the near future, by 100pts +, I do believe the FTSE, instead of falling 10 -20pts in dire sympathy, will tumble 50-70pts. We will see.
Oil: $65+.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: No clear indications.
Companies reporting: Another large mixed bag that will add a small impetus to the market.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: charts are neutral; companies reporting will be a small plus; very little news of any relevance.
Gut feeling: I can't see the FTSE doing much.
Will I bet? No. As it stands, the FTSE is too close to a fifty - fifty call so I'll pass.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
rav700
Senior member
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I am totally in agreement that if the ftse will fall then it will fall atleast 50-70 points.
Also My gut feeling is that this coming very soon ie in the next couple of days or week not weeks.
Crude related stocks have been supporting the ftse and I think if crude falls it does mean that the oil related stocks will lead to some profit taking and hence drop the big drop.Hard to say
Watch the next 2 days.....Some thing is about to happen....
Again I would like to thank UK hero for being such a big support to this forum.
Also My gut feeling is that this coming very soon ie in the next couple of days or week not weeks.
Crude related stocks have been supporting the ftse and I think if crude falls it does mean that the oil related stocks will lead to some profit taking and hence drop the big drop.Hard to say
Watch the next 2 days.....Some thing is about to happen....
Again I would like to thank UK hero for being such a big support to this forum.
ukhero said:
Absolutely right Sir,
I remember a comment you made a couple of days ago: "dont trade for the sake of it".
However, I trade indicies UKX & DAX intraday so I am looking for swings. I prefer the FTSE (patriotic?) but the DAX is normally good.
One other comment, I remember a post of yours a couple of days ago where you were somewhat indecisive and gave 2 entry points, one short one long.
IMHO, for a trader that is not monitoring 100% that is a good strategy to capture either possibility. The only problem is that with most SB Co's it is not possible to set stops also there is the risk that both get filled during the day and will not auto close. One option is to use 2 SBers one for the short, one for the long.
Finally, I should like to add my vote of thanks to UK for his excellent work on this thread, well done and thanks.
Dave
