The FTSE Tuesday, 11th October 2005
Mondays results:
Open: 5362.
Close: 5374, up 12pts. I made a healthy 17pts, how did you do?
Range: 5362- 5395. A swing of 33pts.
Dow: 10,238, down 53pts. To be honest I wasn't expecting that!
News items of note, again not much happening:
Businessweek on-line -'Energy prices are still high. Despite an 11% drop in crude oil since the start of September, the spot price of crude remains above $60 per barrel. Now that the winter heating season is around the corner, analysts are worried that demand for heating oil and natural gas will keep the pressure on energy prices.' - So true.
OIL: $61.35, its still falling.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: another small rise for tomorrow.
Companies reporting: A mixed bag that will add a small Northward move for the market.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: all but the DOW's result point to a small but significant rise. Its important to note that in the current market the DOW and the FTSE are more closely aligned; any major shuffle with the DOW is closely followed by its English cousin. So what we may have tomorrow is an early drop of 8-17 pts followed by a slow climb back to its opening position. This, of course, is assuming that the DOW remains neutral tomorrow.
Watch the mining companies tomorrow, they may dip.
Gut feeling: a small rise of 8pts.
Will I bet? No. Unless there's additional news its far too close a call.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Mondays results:
Open: 5362.
Close: 5374, up 12pts. I made a healthy 17pts, how did you do?
Range: 5362- 5395. A swing of 33pts.
Dow: 10,238, down 53pts. To be honest I wasn't expecting that!
News items of note, again not much happening:
Businessweek on-line -'Energy prices are still high. Despite an 11% drop in crude oil since the start of September, the spot price of crude remains above $60 per barrel. Now that the winter heating season is around the corner, analysts are worried that demand for heating oil and natural gas will keep the pressure on energy prices.' - So true.
OIL: $61.35, its still falling.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: another small rise for tomorrow.
Companies reporting: A mixed bag that will add a small Northward move for the market.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: all but the DOW's result point to a small but significant rise. Its important to note that in the current market the DOW and the FTSE are more closely aligned; any major shuffle with the DOW is closely followed by its English cousin. So what we may have tomorrow is an early drop of 8-17 pts followed by a slow climb back to its opening position. This, of course, is assuming that the DOW remains neutral tomorrow.
Watch the mining companies tomorrow, they may dip.
Gut feeling: a small rise of 8pts.
Will I bet? No. Unless there's additional news its far too close a call.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
The FTSE Wednesday, 12th October 2005
Tuesdays results:
Open: 5374.
Close: 5380, up 6pts. So far, I've been pretty much on the ball this week. Must be luck!
Range: 5373- 5404. A swing of 31pts. Notice it broke the 5400 barrier and then retracted; we may see the same tomorrow.
Dow: 10,253, up 14pts.
News items of note; there's very little happening at the moment that will directly effect the FTSE, and therefore its time to lean on your charts.
MSNBC -'Minutes of the Sept. 20 closed-door discussions revealed increased worries among Fed policy-makers about inflation due to a spike in the price of gasoline and other energy products following hurricane-related production shut-downs caused by Katrina. But the Fed officials said they believed the hit to economic growth from Katrina would prove to be temporary.' - I think we'll find that the combination of high oil prices and long term damage to oil production and the cost of the hurricanes damage in general will be a long term factor coming into effect towards the end of November.
OIL: $63, is it on the march again? Don't forget, one fifth of the FTSE is oil related. Watch the Oil price closely tomorrow.
Mining companies: marched, turned around and then went back home exhausted. Did the Bulls dump their earlier gains, we ask.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: same as today, another small rise for tomorrow.
Companies reporting:
Carphone Warehouse Pre Mkt
GUS Pre Mkt
JJB Sport Pre Mkt
Sportingbet Pre Mkt
There's enough big boys declaring their end of year results tomorrow that if positive will add a +15 to the market.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's up; companies reporting will add a Northern momentum; Buyers are out in force but they don't know exactly what to buy; charts are displaying another up.
Gut feeling: a rise
Will I bet? I intend to set up, later tonight, a long order at 5379 and for it to cancel if it hits 5398.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Tuesdays results:
Open: 5374.
Close: 5380, up 6pts. So far, I've been pretty much on the ball this week. Must be luck!
Range: 5373- 5404. A swing of 31pts. Notice it broke the 5400 barrier and then retracted; we may see the same tomorrow.
Dow: 10,253, up 14pts.
News items of note; there's very little happening at the moment that will directly effect the FTSE, and therefore its time to lean on your charts.
MSNBC -'Minutes of the Sept. 20 closed-door discussions revealed increased worries among Fed policy-makers about inflation due to a spike in the price of gasoline and other energy products following hurricane-related production shut-downs caused by Katrina. But the Fed officials said they believed the hit to economic growth from Katrina would prove to be temporary.' - I think we'll find that the combination of high oil prices and long term damage to oil production and the cost of the hurricanes damage in general will be a long term factor coming into effect towards the end of November.
OIL: $63, is it on the march again? Don't forget, one fifth of the FTSE is oil related. Watch the Oil price closely tomorrow.
Mining companies: marched, turned around and then went back home exhausted. Did the Bulls dump their earlier gains, we ask.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: same as today, another small rise for tomorrow.
Companies reporting:
Carphone Warehouse Pre Mkt
GUS Pre Mkt
JJB Sport Pre Mkt
Sportingbet Pre Mkt
There's enough big boys declaring their end of year results tomorrow that if positive will add a +15 to the market.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's up; companies reporting will add a Northern momentum; Buyers are out in force but they don't know exactly what to buy; charts are displaying another up.
Gut feeling: a rise
Will I bet? I intend to set up, later tonight, a long order at 5379 and for it to cancel if it hits 5398.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Last edited:
A news item, which I initially missed, that will effect the FTSE tomorrow:
Sky news - 'Britain's trade deficit with the rest of the world hit a record high in August. That was due to the oil balance swinging into the red and because of huge insurance payouts resulting from Hurricane Katrina. The goods and services trade deficit widened to a record £5.3bn from £3.9bn in July, said the Office for National Statistics.What was mainly responsible for the worsening gap was the sharp narrowing of the services surplus.That was put down to Lloyds of London believes insurers will have to pay out around £1.4bn in claims because of Hurricane Katrina. The pound fell immediately after the figures but economists said that the overall picture was being distorted by one-off factors and that the trend in the deficit was largely unchanged.' - Not totally unpredicted, but it will effect volume tomorrow. Notch the FTSE down by 3 -7pts from whatever prediction you have.
Yours
UK
Sky news - 'Britain's trade deficit with the rest of the world hit a record high in August. That was due to the oil balance swinging into the red and because of huge insurance payouts resulting from Hurricane Katrina. The goods and services trade deficit widened to a record £5.3bn from £3.9bn in July, said the Office for National Statistics.What was mainly responsible for the worsening gap was the sharp narrowing of the services surplus.That was put down to Lloyds of London believes insurers will have to pay out around £1.4bn in claims because of Hurricane Katrina. The pound fell immediately after the figures but economists said that the overall picture was being distorted by one-off factors and that the trend in the deficit was largely unchanged.' - Not totally unpredicted, but it will effect volume tomorrow. Notch the FTSE down by 3 -7pts from whatever prediction you have.
Yours
UK
Mornington Crescent
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,500
- Likes
- 16
"Will I bet? I intend to set up, later tonight, a long order at 5379 and for it to cancel if it hits 4398."
a stop of 1000 points ???
do you not feel that before it reaches 4400, you may have possibly got the direction wrong ?
a stop of 1000 points ???
do you not feel that before it reaches 4400, you may have possibly got the direction wrong ?
ukhero
Initially agreed with a small rise (+1) but now likely to be on the "other side" and possibly around (-4) for the close, imho.
This is based on the larger the anticipated fall in the opening and the unliklihood of the index managing a 30 pts gain over the course of the day.
Initially agreed with a small rise (+1) but now likely to be on the "other side" and possibly around (-4) for the close, imho.
This is based on the larger the anticipated fall in the opening and the unliklihood of the index managing a 30 pts gain over the course of the day.
The FTSE Thursday, 13th October 2005
Wednesdays results:
Open: 5380.
Close: 5342, down 38pts. I should have known it was to good to last.
Range: 5342- 5380. A continuous downward drop of 38pts. I'm holding my hand up here, that wasn't predicted, and thankfully I based yesterdays long on the thin possibility of a down and therefore it never kicked in. Phew! All sectors are down except 'Health.' Some irony there.
Dow: 10,216, down 36pts.
In all, I judged the market incorrectly. So what drove the market down with such viscous spite.
FT.com - 'With concern of further US interest rate rises weighing heavy, the FTSE 100 index closed 0.7 per cent lower at 5,342.2 with clothing retailer Next the lead faller, down 4.1 per cent to £12.99 as dealers asked whether a revival at Marks and Spencer would be bad news for its rival.' - Nope, this wasn't it.
FT.com -'London equities slipped on Wednesday with clothing group Burberry a leading faller after it admitted sales growth had slowed.' - Getting warm.
Next, down 56pts; Royal dutch shell, down 22pts; Xstrata, down 41pts, to name but a few of the big fallers. Bingo! The bulls are dumping shares in the big boy companies and the rest of the FTSE followed. Buyers are worried about the long term economy, and they are right to do so. Tomorrow there will be bargain hunters out in force.
So how does this help us to predict the FTSE with an element of certainty. Simply put, we have to go back to basics, don't ignore what is blatantly obvious with the stock market and stop being a bull just because you like the horns and therefore learn to dance more like a good little bear.
News items of note:
Worth a read: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8210-1820711,00.html
Charts, and nothing but the charts: yesterday they stated a small rise. For tomorrow they quote a medium rise.
Companies reporting: WH Smiths; I've received bad vibes all year long in regards to this high street retailer and if I'm right it will add an impetus to Wednesdays southern drop for the FTSE.
In general, the FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's down; companies reporting may add a southern momentum; Buyers are hesitant but may be looking for bargains; charts show an up.
Gut feeling: it's a miss-mash of data but I still favour a rise. Such is the Bull in me.
Will I bet? No thanks. I'll save my money for a better odds day. However, if the mining and Oil companies rise early in the morning [and I get the chance to follow them] I'll go long for max of ten points.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Wednesdays results:
Open: 5380.
Close: 5342, down 38pts. I should have known it was to good to last.
Range: 5342- 5380. A continuous downward drop of 38pts. I'm holding my hand up here, that wasn't predicted, and thankfully I based yesterdays long on the thin possibility of a down and therefore it never kicked in. Phew! All sectors are down except 'Health.' Some irony there.
Dow: 10,216, down 36pts.
In all, I judged the market incorrectly. So what drove the market down with such viscous spite.
FT.com - 'With concern of further US interest rate rises weighing heavy, the FTSE 100 index closed 0.7 per cent lower at 5,342.2 with clothing retailer Next the lead faller, down 4.1 per cent to £12.99 as dealers asked whether a revival at Marks and Spencer would be bad news for its rival.' - Nope, this wasn't it.
FT.com -'London equities slipped on Wednesday with clothing group Burberry a leading faller after it admitted sales growth had slowed.' - Getting warm.
Next, down 56pts; Royal dutch shell, down 22pts; Xstrata, down 41pts, to name but a few of the big fallers. Bingo! The bulls are dumping shares in the big boy companies and the rest of the FTSE followed. Buyers are worried about the long term economy, and they are right to do so. Tomorrow there will be bargain hunters out in force.
So how does this help us to predict the FTSE with an element of certainty. Simply put, we have to go back to basics, don't ignore what is blatantly obvious with the stock market and stop being a bull just because you like the horns and therefore learn to dance more like a good little bear.
News items of note:
Worth a read: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8210-1820711,00.html
Charts, and nothing but the charts: yesterday they stated a small rise. For tomorrow they quote a medium rise.
Companies reporting: WH Smiths; I've received bad vibes all year long in regards to this high street retailer and if I'm right it will add an impetus to Wednesdays southern drop for the FTSE.
In general, the FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's down; companies reporting may add a southern momentum; Buyers are hesitant but may be looking for bargains; charts show an up.
Gut feeling: it's a miss-mash of data but I still favour a rise. Such is the Bull in me.
Will I bet? No thanks. I'll save my money for a better odds day. However, if the mining and Oil companies rise early in the morning [and I get the chance to follow them] I'll go long for max of ten points.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
The FTSE Friday, 14th October 2005
Thursdays results:
Open: 5342.
Close: 5265, down 77pts. I stayed out of the market, which is just as well considering I'm a bull at heart.
Range: 5256 - 5342.
Dow: 10,216, down, well, nothing really. Days range: 10,156 - 10,241, a swing of 85pts.
News items of note:
NEW YORK (AP) - 'Oil prices fell Thursday after the U.S. Department of Energy reported that crude-oil inventories rose one million barrels last week - the first increase in seven weeks. Gasoline and heating oil prices also slipped, despite large declines in gas and distillate inventories, as the report from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration said demand for these products remains low. In midday trading Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude oil fell 72 cents to $63.40 US a barrel.'
Forbes.com - 'The nation's trade deficit rose 1.8 percent to $59.03 billion in August, the third highest in history, driven by higher oil prices. Import prices climbed by 2.3 percent in September - the biggest one-month rise in 15 years - giving consumers new reasons to fear that inflation is rising and the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates. The rise in import prices was noticeably greater than the 0.9 percent increase that economists had predicted.' - More doom and gloom for the American economy.
Timesonline - 'London's markets tumbled for a second day, with natural resources stocks bearing the brunt of the sell-off as metals prices fell and BHP Billiton cut an oil-production target. The FTSE 100 index slumped 77 points at 5265.2 at the close, a level last seen in August. The City's chartist community noted that the benchmark had broken below a 90-day moving average at 5276 - a key support line for the people who watch such things - which has likely triggered a wave of automated sell orders.' -
Charts, and nothing but the charts: yesterday they quoted a medium rise! For tomorrow there's no clear indication.
Companies reporting: No major companies reporting.
In general, the FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: there was a lot of pre-programmed selling today as automated orders kicked in. Whereas bargain hunters would normally be out in force, I believe tomorrow may be a case of the 'lets wait and see' syndrome.
Gut feeling: None.
Will I bet? No. I'm too busy at work tomorrow to even peek at the FTSE. Watch the miners and retailers tomorrow for additional clues.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Thursdays results:
Open: 5342.
Close: 5265, down 77pts. I stayed out of the market, which is just as well considering I'm a bull at heart.
Range: 5256 - 5342.
Dow: 10,216, down, well, nothing really. Days range: 10,156 - 10,241, a swing of 85pts.
News items of note:
NEW YORK (AP) - 'Oil prices fell Thursday after the U.S. Department of Energy reported that crude-oil inventories rose one million barrels last week - the first increase in seven weeks. Gasoline and heating oil prices also slipped, despite large declines in gas and distillate inventories, as the report from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration said demand for these products remains low. In midday trading Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude oil fell 72 cents to $63.40 US a barrel.'
Forbes.com - 'The nation's trade deficit rose 1.8 percent to $59.03 billion in August, the third highest in history, driven by higher oil prices. Import prices climbed by 2.3 percent in September - the biggest one-month rise in 15 years - giving consumers new reasons to fear that inflation is rising and the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates. The rise in import prices was noticeably greater than the 0.9 percent increase that economists had predicted.' - More doom and gloom for the American economy.
Timesonline - 'London's markets tumbled for a second day, with natural resources stocks bearing the brunt of the sell-off as metals prices fell and BHP Billiton cut an oil-production target. The FTSE 100 index slumped 77 points at 5265.2 at the close, a level last seen in August. The City's chartist community noted that the benchmark had broken below a 90-day moving average at 5276 - a key support line for the people who watch such things - which has likely triggered a wave of automated sell orders.' -
Charts, and nothing but the charts: yesterday they quoted a medium rise! For tomorrow there's no clear indication.
Companies reporting: No major companies reporting.
In general, the FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: there was a lot of pre-programmed selling today as automated orders kicked in. Whereas bargain hunters would normally be out in force, I believe tomorrow may be a case of the 'lets wait and see' syndrome.
Gut feeling: None.
Will I bet? No. I'm too busy at work tomorrow to even peek at the FTSE. Watch the miners and retailers tomorrow for additional clues.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Mornington Crescent
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,500
- Likes
- 16
They do say that when you move to spain you lose your sense of humour.
Can't be true can it ?
Can't be true can it ?
Morning all,
Well UK, I have been on the sidelines for a couple of days for the simple reason that both the DAX & UKX have been a bitch to trade. My signals were simply not getting confirmed so being a cautious sort of a chap (with money that is) traded very little. The DAX swung wildly but with no clear reason.
Actually, the FTSE was a clearer market to trade yesterday which is somewhat unusual. Anyway, I was not in.
Doublesix, I don't know where you get the idea that those of us who have moved to Spain lose our humour? As far as I know we are 2 on this thread who have abandoned Blighty (Split and I) and we are laughing our "£%"$ off.
BTW is your ID taken from the famous Jaguar double six?
Good trading to all, I will have a look at the market open and if I see the same haze as yesterday I am off to play golf in the sun, he he heee!
Dave
Well UK, I have been on the sidelines for a couple of days for the simple reason that both the DAX & UKX have been a bitch to trade. My signals were simply not getting confirmed so being a cautious sort of a chap (with money that is) traded very little. The DAX swung wildly but with no clear reason.
Actually, the FTSE was a clearer market to trade yesterday which is somewhat unusual. Anyway, I was not in.
Doublesix, I don't know where you get the idea that those of us who have moved to Spain lose our humour? As far as I know we are 2 on this thread who have abandoned Blighty (Split and I) and we are laughing our "£%"$ off.
BTW is your ID taken from the famous Jaguar double six?
Good trading to all, I will have a look at the market open and if I see the same haze as yesterday I am off to play golf in the sun, he he heee!
Dave
