The end of work

[Sneaky_T2W]

Hi all,

First time poster, long time lurker.

I was wondering if anybody has given much thought to the idea that the concept of working for a living may become a thing of the past within the next 15 - 20 years?

I don't want to discuss whether this is realistic or not, if you are not convinced by now I doubt I could make a better case than one of the many bloggers who write about such things. I am more interested in how those who see it coming think you would prepare such a thing.

The way I see it panning out is jobs slowly start being replaced by technology (it's already happening, and will accelerate), the state steps in to provide a basic income funded by increases in taxes. This income is not enough to pay a mortgage and the state starts buying houses off people who are defaulting on their repayments and renting back to them as council housing. Maybe the state will insist the banks take a haircut on the loans, maybe the banks will be nationalised. People who have careers and own their houses become increasingly rare, many of them start wonder if it's worth it as they watch their neighbours spend their days playing with their kids, exercising, pursuing hobbies etc.

This will sound like paradise to those of us of an egalitarian persuasion, but to those of us who think the move from wage slave to hunting in the morning, fishing in the afternoon, rearing cattle in the evening and criticising after dinner might not go smoothly, what would the you of 2035 tell the you of now to do?

 

[tomorton]

My advice would be don't knock yourself out to train/study/qualify for a specific career unless its one of the traditional professions - lawyer, doctor etc. - that are aggressively paid and impossible to replace by technology.

Otherwise, get the highest level qualifications you, get the highest level salary you can regardless of job and prospects and continually organise your own re-training for new opportunities. These will come as job demand rotates into new areas not even envisioned a decade ago. Employment isn't going to die out, though some jobs always will.

 

[NVP]

define work ........

 

[Splitlink]

My advice would be don't knock yourself out to train/study/qualify for a specific career unless its one of the traditional professions - lawyer, doctor etc. - that are aggressively paid and impossible to replace by technology.

Otherwise, get the highest level qualifications you, get the highest level salary you can regardless of job and prospects and continually organise your own re-training for new opportunities. These will come as job demand rotates into new areas not even envisioned a decade ago. Employment isn't going to die out, though some jobs always will.

My nephew got a degree in psychology. The guy is a natural salesman and was millionaire by 35.

 

[HansHauf]

First of all, somebody has to control robots and create technologies, so this part of workers is safe. Furthermore, somebody has to maintain them, so this part of workers is safe as well. And the last one, government will never allow people to have too much of free time

 

[tomorton]

My nephew got a degree in psychology. The guy is a natural salesman and was millionaire by 35.

Terrific Split.

Sales is something no school in the UK recommends or wants their students to aspire to and (because?) for which there is no universally recognised qualification but we can all learn the techniques. But a degree-level qualification in almost anything will get you into some jobs.

 

[Splitlink]

Terrific Split.

Sales is something no school in the UK recommends or wants their students to aspire to and (because?) for which there is no universally recognised qualification but we can all learn the techniques. But a degree-level qualification in almost anything will get you into some jobs.

Do you think that psychology is special in that respect? I am impressed by how my nephew gives his undivided attention to anything that you are saying. He is one of the nicest people that one could wish to meet.

 

[tomorton]

Do you think that psychology is special in that respect? I am impressed by how my nephew gives his undivided attention to anything that you are saying. He is one of the nicest people that one could wish to meet.

Maybe it is special. But selling means listening to people, not telling them what you want them to buy.

 

[0007]

Maybe it is special. But selling means listening to people, not telling them what you want them to buy.

Similarly, I've found that you need to listen to the market and not tell it what you think it ought to do.

 

[tomorton]

Good analogy 0007.

This reminds me - I seem to recall from years ago, after open outcry ended, there were computer programmes that could be bought that made a background noise when markets were moving, increasing with volume, so as to mimic a trading floor and give an audible alert when things started to happen.

Charts are OK but they're very 2D. Why doesn't my SB platform ding when an order is hit, or my positions go higher/lower? What about a heat map that is combined that op-art gizmo?

 

[Sneaky_T2W]

My advice would be don't knock yourself out to train/study/qualify for a specific career unless its one of the traditional professions - lawyer, doctor etc. - that are aggressively paid and impossible to replace by technology.

Otherwise, get the highest level qualifications you, get the highest level salary you can regardless of job and prospects and continually organise your own re-training for new opportunities. These will come as job demand rotates into new areas not even envisioned a decade ago. Employment isn't going to die out, though some jobs always will.

I agree with you regarding not specialising and being adaptive, you don't want to pigeonhole yourself.

I don't believe employment will die out either, but with the Earth's population set to hit 9 billion in the timeframe we are talking about, and the majority of unskilled/semi-skilled and some skilled jobs being automated, the idea that people have to work in order to make a living will become antiquated.

Will those who are lucky enough to earn a living from their careers earn much more than those on handouts? At the moment society is willing to put up with inequality because in theory everybody has the opporunity to make something of themselves career-wise, but when the opportunities are severly limited people might not have as much respect for property rights.

Thanks for the reply.

 

[Sneaky_T2W]

define work ........

In this context, undertaking effort with the expectation of a remuneration.

 

[Sneaky_T2W]

First of all, somebody has to control robots and create technologies, so this part of workers is safe. Furthermore, somebody has to maintain them, so this part of workers is safe as well. And the last one, government will never allow people to have too much of free time

Robots will become more and more autonomous, and take less and less supervision. Yes they will need maintenance, but much of that could potentially be automated.

This is not necessarily all about robots, it's technology in general. I work in a company where the operations staff are well paid because they need to have very specialist knowledge of the various markets, but in the business were are in recent advances in techology means the market is way less fragmented now, more homogenised, and that knowledge won't be needed anymore. We will still need people, but not as many, they won't need to be as experienced, and they won't command the same salaries. I would imagine this sort of thing is happening in many industries.

I don't see where these new labour intensive industries to absorb the displaced and the constant stream of new job seekers are going to come from. Think about the fact that Facebook and Twitter employ 15,000 people between them. These are two of the big players at the forefront of the information age, 15,000.

 

[Pat494]

Hi all,

First time poster, long time lurker.

I was wondering if anybody has given much thought to the idea that the concept of working for a living may become a thing of the past within the next 15 - 20 years?

I don't want to discuss whether this is realistic or not, if you are not convinced by now I doubt I could make a better case than one of the many bloggers who write about such things. I am more interested in how those who see it coming think you would prepare such a thing.

The way I see it panning out is jobs slowly start being replaced by technology (it's already happening, and will accelerate), the state steps in to provide a basic income funded by increases in taxes. This income is not enough to pay a mortgage and the state starts buying houses off people who are defaulting on their repayments and renting back to them as council housing. Maybe the state will insist the banks take a haircut on the loans, maybe the banks will be nationalised. People who have careers and own their houses become increasingly rare, many of them start wonder if it's worth it as they watch their neighbours spend their days playing with their kids, exercising, pursuing hobbies etc.

This will sound like paradise to those of us of an egalitarian persuasion, but to those of us who think the move from wage slave to hunting in the morning, fishing in the afternoon, rearing cattle in the evening and criticising after dinner might not go smoothly, what would the you of 2035 tell the you of now to do?

There has been the 2.5m in the UK hardcore unemployable who refuse to work, for years. Could draft them into an army of sorts plus any illegal immigrants found and send them to any one of many wars in the Middle East. 2 birds sorted with one ploy.

 

[Sneaky_T2W]

There has been the 2.5m in the UK hardcore unemployable who refuse to work, for years. Could draft them into an army of sorts plus any illegal immigrants found and send them to any one of many wars in the Middle East. 2 birds sorted with one ploy.

Nice. A bit authoritarian for my taste but all proposed solutions should be given equal consideration

 

[NVP]

In this context, undertaking effort with the expectation of a remuneration.

and who is making the remuneration ?

 

[NVP]

There has been the 2.5m in the UK hardcore unemployable who refuse to work, for years. Could draft them into an army of sorts plus any illegal immigrants found and send them to any one of many wars in the Middle East. 2 birds sorted with one ploy.

or send them to Calais

 

[Sneaky_T2W]

and who is making the remuneration ?

Either an employer or somebody to whom the expender of effort has provided a service makes the renumeration.

Can't wait to see where this is going.

 

[NVP]

we all need to generate income from providing services and skills ..........(excluding the people already mentioned)

this world is changing rapidly............if we merely focus on the Employment segment (ie providing our services to 1 main customer) then that has changed exponentially as global markets have evolved

Employers of resources have had to change their processes and terms or risk going bankrupt

so this means

less remuneration and perks
less job security
less prospects
more flexibility required re locations / timezones
long hours

in return for ............a job

that's it ..that's the deal ..........take it .........or leave it and join the millions of us on the other side of the fence ..........grass can be greener but depends on ones own needs and aspirations

I stepped off the employment ladder last year after 35 years in employment..........after 2-3 attempts working with second division companies I am now 100% consultant alongside my currency trading - cant stand the BS of employment now and reporting to people who havnt got a clue

N

 

[NVP]

have no idea what to advise youngsters of today - I agree that if you are going for it you need to get into the top echelon of required professions (accounting/legal/doctor etc ) and ensure you stay relevant and expand your secondary skills to make you "Employable" in that field......

if you have no such aspirations or appetite then don't waste time on this sea of second division professions and pseudo babble stuff..............focus on becoming authentic and knowledgable and experienced in a field that will pay you well day in day out ....and pray that it cannot be replicated by cheaper countries or technology

for example we will always need builders ......you have to become the best though and you will always be employed or have business .............

now making a decent margin or income is a completely separate question - just remember that the top 5-10% in any field will generally earn more than the other 90% put together

N