The DOW This Week...22/01- 25/01


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Still sliding down the downtrend slope..... There is light at the end of the tunnel though. The upper line of the 3 slope lines is now providing support on a down trend again.There is reasonable positive divergence, still, on the 10 minute chart,giving hope at least that there will be less chance of more downside.Phase has not been pushed lower, adding strength to an upside move. All in all, it seems to be very lack lustre and boring at the moment. As the downtrend lines move sideways, there is less and less of a chance of slipping below 9700 and the chart seems to support that with a substantial test of that level at yesterday's close and today's open. Add to the the bull pennant formed today, there is good reason to look forward to some upside tomorrow.
100MA 9752 ; Support at 9700; Resistance at 9740,9764,9810,9850,9880,9900 usw.


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Yesterday's analysis was just about spot on. :) Nice rapid rise up on open, testing briefly 9810 then on to test 9850 twice, and then the rest of the day was spent consolidating,and testing 9810 support, finally dropping through to test 9770, back to 9810 as resistance,down to 9770 support, and finally closing at 9796. Today has made another bull pennant, but there is weakness there. Having said that, there was strong short term positive divergence off the two bottoms at 9770, which should hold fast tomorrow and provide good support. We have both the bull pennant and a bull triangle to come into force and if this performs, we should be getting up to the 9900 region. Bear in mind it's Friday tomorrow, and market sentiment will provide a good indicator as to how next week will pan out. A strong finish will ensure we carry on with a nice rally next week. Any weekness and I guess well spend some more time going sideways.
As always, I like the fact that we bounced off the 100MA twice today, and, more importantly, it was at 9770 support level, having spent all day above the 100MA.
100MA 9783; Support 9780,9728,9700; Resistance 9800,9832,9850, 9880, 9900.


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Anther good "guess" yesterday- "we're going to 9900" - just a couple of points short :) Although we finished up on the day, there is weakness there, where a Head and Shoulders has formed on the 1 min chart, with a target of 9820. Seems there is not too much confidence moving forward/over the weekend holding. Having said that, there is an up channel forming , about 100 points wide.This channel provides support at 9820 and resistance at 9920.
So what for next week? A retrace back to 9810 /uptrend support line and a bounce up to resistance on the uptrend resistance line looks the obvious move. Look out for the failure point which will be a drop below 9800 accompanied by a trend break in the TA indicators. Once again the new uptrend slope angle matches the downtrend slope, giving order and stability to the current move.
Uptrend slope is 50 points/day so a continuation brings us to 10K around Wednesday's close..... Interesting point - the current daily trend is up 100points and a 50% retrace.. Take a look also at the Fib. retracements from the last high to 9700...
23% = 9841 (today's close and close to support)
38% = 9926 = uptrend resistance point
50% = 9995= "the magic 10K"
62% = 10,063 = and old support/res point...

100MA at 9821; Support at 9820 (H&S), 9832,9780,9728; Resistance at 9850,9900,9980.


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