The DOW This Week...19/02....22/02

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
What can I say......Mainly a boring day, looking to consolidate, but finally tanking after a false breakout. No clues to the big drop to 9735 ( except breaking 9800)...before closing at 9743.One could have been forgiven for thinking that 9800 was going to provide a solid support- it was tested enough times. Oh well that's the way it goes sometimes. Next stop 9700...
100MA 9870. Support : 9700, 9670,9625 9600. Resistance : 9780, 9800, 9832.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Great day today. Nice double bottom at 9741 then a strong rally right into the close to finish 13 points off HOD at 9941.The down trend is well and truly broken so we can look forward to some more up-side- hopefully. Price is in line with TA so don't expect anything spectacular...TA looks good in all timescales except 1 min...but that may just be weakness into the close.There was a small negative divergence top at 9946, followed by a test of 9900 that held, so that should provide good support for tomorrow. I'm still seeing 32 and 64 support/resistance cropping up time and again...Nice 350 point wide up channel forming...and we're just above the 50% retrace value of 9918.
100 MA : 9852. Support: 9932, 9900,9862,9732. Resistance: 9944,9964, 10K, 10,032.....
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Well, we got some of what I thought yesterday, and some I didn't. We made the up, slowly to break 10K at 10,027, finding support at 9948, bofore a rather erratic breakout and a double top around the 25. This turned into a nice head and shoulders top, streched over nearly 3 hours,finally culminating in an unexpected tank to 9833. Incidentally the H&S target was 9964,and from the failure there, it just dropped like a stone.A brief glimmer of hope from the bounce off 9932 was short lived, briefly seeing 50 before returing to 35 again at the close. A 200 point drop is too much too quick and there are signs of a recovery tomorrow, there being positive divergence unto the close (1 min chart). No guarantee though, as there was no real confirmation,there being only two troughs....
Having made a gain above the 50% fib,it was all lost today so I guess to 10K break is it for now.38% was lost too at 9855 and 9810 is the next step at 23%.Keep an eye on these values for a pointer as to continuation of the drop, or a reversal.Critical uptrend support is at 9764, whilst a reversal to 9900 will be a clear turnaround...I favour overcooked and a recovery to realistic values tomorrow, wherever that may be.

100MA : 9909. Support : 9832,9800,9764, 9736. Resistance : 9855,9900,9932,9964.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Excellent call from yesterday- Overcooked...We dropped at the open,but bounced firmly off 9800,getting into reasonable strength straight away. A sign of things to come ...eventually. Most of the day was spent consolidating drifting around the 100 MA, mostly quickly dipping well below and just as quickly recovering back to the 100MA. I was fortunate enough to get back into the chat room just before the breakout, a result of the substantial bull wedge that had been forming all day. The key point was the slope change in 1 Min RSI, finally breaking out at 7:30. The break indicated a target of just under 10K- 9982..Well we hit 9982 after a nice rally up and that looked to be the top, divergence was just setting in...but there was one final push taking us to just on 10K. I had thought it might just make 10,060...
Moving on...we now have a distinct triangle forming.....currently,support is at 9780 and resistance is at 9977. If this triangle performs, the target is 10,300.That assumes that the break occurs around an extrapolated 9932. Given current strength, it could go sooner...leading to a higher target.This is not unreasonable, noting the increase in the slope angle of curent support, remembering that quite often we see four rates of change in slope before a breakdown of the trend ( be it up OR down). Note the two possible downtrend resistance lines from the 10K top. More input is required to home in on the likely eventual target.....Nice day, and a lot of Happy Bunnies in the chat room tonight. Skim and I had great fun second guessing the rally pull back points. Honours even I think :)
See Dow Intraday for more details of today, especially Fib points.

100 MA : 9900. Support: 9964,9932,9900,9884. Resistance : 9980,10K, 10,020, 10,050.
 

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Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Yes, yesterday was fun..all dow traders I know positioned themselves correctly and scored nice points :)

The continuous higher lows forming a bullish wedge on the 5 min was suggesting a safe bet to go with an upside break which finally occured after a few weak trials....

We've ended up with another expanding triangle on the daily chart suggesting more volatility ahead...only the upside sloping support line, the engulfing white candle on the daily chart, the higher low on the 15 min chart formed on the pull back after the rally to 10k, the hammer again on the 15 min chart, consolidation at the high on the 1 min chart all suggesting more to the upside before a downside move, still expanding triangles refer to volatility and it might be relatively safer to go with higher lows rule intraday...

Riz
 

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Naz

Experienced member
1,391 24
Yes it was great evening,but for me once again it was looking for that 2pm EST(7pm GMT) move that happens so often on the Nasdaq.Catch the higher low at about 2pm it can very often lead to a substantial move.
 

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Naz

Experienced member
1,391 24
Chartman was right the move started at 7.30 GMT on the Dow as the chart shows but astute Nasdaq players already should have been in the move as the above graph showed their move started at 7pm GMT
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
mmm Is this a let's out do each other type thing? :) TA got me in on the dow at 6:12 on a 3X3 PD.....( no I' not explaining it. When I chat in the chat room and do my posts on the dow, I always err on the side of caution and (almost) zero risk.....yes I know there's no such thing as zero risk- lets compromise- minimal- such that you don't have to be too concerned with reward/risk- I'm trying to nurture on beginners here and show them the way to safe happy days. Friday great me great pleasure in helping one guy turn his -40 position into + 60 in a short period of time.... I bet he won't make the same mistake again :)
 
 
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