The DOW This Week...10/12....14/12

[ChartMan]

Oooerr Missus....Thats the end of that then. A drop to 10K and I thought we were safe, what with the rally to 75...then a test of 10K again, a brief blip to resistance/support at 28 and it was all over.Plenty of volatility, a difficult call for direction early on,but all was revealed eventually- the loss of 10K and tank to a LOD close of 9921. Support confimed at 10,028 and 9964 with 9900 left to be tested tomorrow. No sign of a break from either side of the down channel.
Fib. retracements 38% 9882 and 23% 8815 are possible support points, along with horizontal supports at 9968 and 9700.No signs of negative divergence, so no immediate prospect of a turnaround. Friday's trend breakout was a big disappointment.
Resistance at the moment seems to be a bit academic, but 9964 and 10K.
100 MA at 10,008.
Regression (EOD) 10,109

 

[ChartMan]

Not a lot to say about today, except support at 9968 (9956 to be exact) was tested and failed, which promptly turned into resistance.The FED cut caused the inevitable blip, followed by "as you were" to close at 9888. This is at the 38% retrace level, and still within the major down channel. A small glimmer of a bottom is shown by the levelling out of RSI and CCI, although there is still plenty of scope for more retracements.
Support ( minor) at 9868; Fib 23% 9815, and further support at 9800.
Resistance 9900; 9937 Fib 50%; 9956 and 10K
100 MA at 9973.
Possible uptrend support bounce at 9860....On the other hand, remember the "rounded top" formation that had a breakout? If that comes back into play ( false breakout) then the only conclusion is 9700...

 

[Riz]

Looks like the rounded top will have it's say, CM...apart from choppy moves, there havent been any impressive ones ever since 10k broken through...got to retest lows and come back up properly...

Riz

 

[ChartMan]

Perfect day today, from a TA point of view. Last night I suggested a bounce off 9860, and that's what we got. A quick test of 9900 with a false breakout, and we were back to the drop. A brief test and fail at 9860 again and we headed on down.... to have several bounces off the Fib 23% retrace level 9815 ( 9807/12/10/12). Yesterday TA was levelling out,indicating a slow down in the decline. From the open today, there was a continuation of positive divergence. I suggested in the chat room in the afternoon that sooner or later we had to go up, which we dutifully did. . ( this was based on 1 min charts). Then came a re-test of 9856 and fail, going on to retest 9815 again, making a double bottom and finally starting a real rally for a 100 points.The day closed with a pullback at res/supp 9864 and a test/bounce off the 38% 9882 to close at a respectable 9894, down just a few points on the day.
The down trend channel is now firmly broken,giving a reasonable outlook for more upside.The 100MA is at 9904, just a whisker away.Down trend resistance is now support and that is at 9860.To continue/hold the rally, we have to stay above this value , the 38% fib. value of 9882 and hor. support at 9900. Loking at the RSI and CCI, I think it will hold.If it does, this will have been a well tested bottom and a sound base for another pop at 10K....On the downside, losing the new support will lead to a retest of 9800, but I dont think it will drop below that.

 

[ChartMan]

What a poor analysis yesterday. Still I did say we had to hold above 9880 etc to go on up...as it was we opened almost 100pts down, to back to "as was". A brief rally, a couple of tests of the 23% line again before closing down at 9766. So , we're still stuck in an a down channel, with no signs of stopping.
Down trend resistance line is at the 23% line 9815;Down trend support line is at 9730. Hor support at 9700 then 9600. 100MA at 9848.
10 and 15 min TA shows minor pos divergence....
To break this we have to close above the down trend resistance and the 100MA, which is 80 points away.

 

[ChartMan]

Nice turn around today but will it hold? Looks to have had an uncertain end with a substantial sell of, and a minor claw back at close.Three important things today. 1 we closed above the 100MA. 2 We closed above the down trend resistance line. 3 There was positive divergence in all time scales.
We also closed above 9800. I guess this must mean we are on the up,but I don't feel like putting my foot in it again, but it does look positive.
Down trend support ( was resistance ) 9780; 100MA at 9808.
Sorry it's short but I have to fly.....

 

[Riz]

I just wish this Bin Laden issue is settled soon so we can have usual markets back, obviously news of his being holed up in a cave complex surrounded by Nortern Alliance and Pakistani forces, etc helped the Dow avoid backtesting 700 (708 where the downchannel suggested) and end the day over 800 (780 significant support/res level) instead, and turning most indicators +ve...agree it does look like up on monday both TA and newswise unless something new comes up in the w/e...

Riz