The Diary Of Not Even Semi-Serious DAX30 DayTader

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Shorting scenarios - I won't attempt to sell DAX again today unless we test and hold the 8605/10 or 8630 resistance zones or we start trading under today's opening price with clear bearish price action.

Buying scenarios - I will only look to buy DAX again today if we can clearly hold the old resistance zone 8560/70 as support, or we re-test the days opening price and show clear bullish price action. Otherwise the next area that I might look for buys is way down at 8505/15 support band.
 
Not a bad start to the day, DAX dipped below 8500 after the U.S close last night which created a large gap on the cash and Futures market, It was a given that either overnight or at the open today that these would be attempted to be filled as the DAX had passed through 2 major support levels as well as the 8500 round number without a retracement.
......

I like a lot of what you say but, I have to pull you up on this. Futures closed on new lows last night as the Spoos sold aggressively into the close. Europe probably would have gapped lower had Yellen not been installed as FED chairwoman overnight.
 
I like a lot of what you say but, I have to pull you up on this. Futures closed on new lows last night as the Spoos sold aggressively into the close. Europe probably would have gapped lower had Yellen not been installed as FED chairwoman overnight.

Hi ixus

Thanks for the feedback.

I don't trade or take notice of news or fundamentals, strange as that may seem I find them a distraction and a big pile of poop for suits to chat about while I actually spend my time trading, all the information I need is on my charts.

I'm purely a technical trader who uses a range of profitable strategies that work for me very well. May Yellen have been installed or not wouldn't have made one bit of difference to me as I saw the technical signal on my chart and placed my BUY STOP above market meaning that price would have to have re-gained ground before triggering me in which of course it did and headed up towards the targets.
 
Break of the RSI pattern was indicating a lead up fr price breaking the trendline and the days opening price. RSI then printed a double tap resistance which indicated this move was sure to happen.

Went short @ 8550 on the break of the trend line and today's opening price but getting slow these day as I made my exit at 8539.3 rather than 8532...let £86 profit slip away.

Profit: £230

Today's total: £800

Weeks total: £1,790
 

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Lots of day traders who trade the DAX or another Index for that matter normally get frustrated or fail becasue they try to be to greedy or guess where the market is going. Most try to capture the full moves and/or big moves.

As my signature says - Trade what you see, Not what you think.

Wait for the market to show its hand, take the trade, keeps targets sensible and focused, earn your crust and then get out.

Leave the glory hunters to attempt to catch the 50-100pt moves intraday.

My targets are between 10-30ish points, 2 or 3 times per day, more than enough for me.
 
What about stops? You only seem to have had winning trades so far.
How big are they compared to your typical wins out of interest?
 
What about stops? You only seem to have had winning trades so far.
How big are they compared to your typical wins out of interest?

Stops are same as my initial targets scholfield, so If I look for 20pts, then I risk 20pts. I look for at least 1:1, obviously I look for more than that, but I'm a realist, and this is the real world, therefore I have to make my exit from trades when I think that price is slowing for a potential reversal or is indeed starting to reverse. Even if that means I only make 10pts from my 20pt target while risking 20pts.

You can see on my last trade that price reversed on me when I was £316 in profit which lead to me exiting with only £230 profit. Same this this morning, price hit my initial target and reversed quickly leaving me with a smaller profit than hoped.
 
Think I'm done for the day now.

Price has retraced back to the days open again, but not for me.
 
Eyes on 8505/15 support band now.

Couda, Wouda, Shouda.....but was busy trading the DJIA at the time this support band was tested. One trade at a time for me I'm afraid, the old brain can only handle one at a time.

Missed DAX opportunity.
 

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Hi,

I notice that u look at the rsi when you are trading. Mind telling how closely u relate the rsi to the price movement?
 
Hi,

I notice that u look at the rsi when you are trading. Mind telling how closely u relate the rsi to the price movement?

I use the RSI for all sorts of things, pretty hard to explain all of them, but if I'm looking for indications of a pending breakout of trendline or range for example, then I often look at the RSI to see if its forming any patterns and breaking out of those patterns before price has broken its own pattern. This of course doesn't mean that I would enter, I do look for other things to confirm, but it just helps.

You can see on the cart below taken from one of my posts and trades today how I used the RSI to suggest that price was going to breakdown, the RSI had formed a triangle if you like or wedge...whatever you want to call it :)

The RSI then broke out...shown with the orange box, this to me was acting as a leading indicator at this point and suggested that price was likely to break below the days open and the trend line, however, more confirmation came when the RSI printed a double tap or top shown with the red line, this happened at the same time the DAX broke below the trend line and the days low.

So for me...

A: RSI broke its pattern before price did, early clue that price would fall
B: RSI confirmed the move down with a double tap as resistance
C: Price broke out, and I entered.

This is just one of many ways I use it. Other ways include divergence etc.
 

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Thank you for this thread. Always interesting to see how others trade.

You may wish to do a study of your trades during the European session compared with the trades taken after the US markets have opened. You might find that your strike rate is lower in the US session trades, you are relying more on your "feel" for the market when the trade is not working as expected, and perhaps the average profit per trade is lower. If the statistics confirm this hypothesis, you know what to do! Your post #14, October 7, selling the return to the opening range during the US session (at price 8594) is one of only two trades on this thread that I don't really like.

(if you do learn that trading in during the US session is less productive, there is the benefit of less time sitting in the chair...or standing at your desk?...which isn't good for back...or eyes...or health in general)

The other trade I'm not sure about is your post #35, today, the rejection off resistance zone. It is clear that you have enough experience and "feel" to recognise when the market is not doing what you expect, and to act accordingly. Just to highlight to others reading the thread that this is an important skill to develop. Could you explain a little more about what triggered the trade? Resistance and the RSI divergence? It is interesting that you use an indicator with a look back period including out of hours data. You know from your mentor about the games which can be played by large traders around opens, and you also know that most people are not participating pre market. So perhaps a study of whether these divergence trades are less reliable around the open can also improve your results? (e.g. if your RSI is N period, cannot take RSI signals until N*bar interval after the 08.00 open)

It is clear that you are on the right track, especially as you are still looking for ways to improve your trading. This is an excellent trait to keep you focused and not become complacent with your success. I can relate to your early blunders with trading and your persistence - I joined up here circa 2006 and spent considerable time chasing my tail. I was also fortunate enough to have a mentor point out where the "games" are being played - its night and day when you've learned where not to trade. That doesn't even occur to many. The help you received clearly set you about trading in a far more structured manner. So newbies would do well to follow your contributions carefully.

"I may regret that exit!". Interesting. I think how quickly you can let go of your forecast, control your ego, and follow your intuition when the trade is not developing as expected is one of the single most important areas of focus and can make the difference between a mediocre trader and a very good trader. You do that very well on trades which are beginning to behave "iffy", so don't regret too much!

The second area of focus which has a massive effect on your long term results is compounding. Difficult to do at first when you must make regular withdrawals to cover your living expenses- so live humbly, frugally, and low profile. Retaining as much profit as possible to back a bigger position size with which to trade, up to the limit the market will support, is key. If you can continue this level of consistency through various market cycles, trading 10 contracts on the exchange by the end of next year is feasible.

A final word about being low profile. I respect your intention to share and help others. But in less anonymous real life, you might want to be a little more private about your results, as otherwise it can attract the wrong sorts of attention. Human nature being as it is, there may come a time when you must re-evaluate whether to continue posting here also.

Cheers and continued success.
 
Thank you for this thread. Always interesting to see how others trade.

You may wish to do a study of your trades during the European session compared with the trades taken after the US markets have opened. You might find that your strike rate is lower in the US session trades, you are relying more on your "feel" for the market when the trade is not working as expected, and perhaps the average profit per trade is lower. If the statistics confirm this hypothesis, you know what to do! Your post #14, October 7, selling the return to the opening range during the US session (at price 8594) is one of only two trades on this thread that I don't really like.

(if you do learn that trading in during the US session is less productive, there is the benefit of less time sitting in the chair...or standing at your desk?...which isn't good for back...or eyes...or health in general)

The other trade I'm not sure about is your post #35, today, the rejection off resistance zone. It is clear that you have enough experience and "feel" to recognise when the market is not doing what you expect, and to act accordingly. Just to highlight to others reading the thread that this is an important skill to develop. Could you explain a little more about what triggered the trade? Resistance and the RSI divergence? It is interesting that you use an indicator with a look back period including out of hours data. You know from your mentor about the games which can be played by large traders around opens, and you also know that most people are not participating pre market. So perhaps a study of whether these divergence trades are less reliable around the open can also improve your results? (e.g. if your RSI is N period, cannot take RSI signals until N*bar interval after the 08.00 open)

It is clear that you are on the right track, especially as you are still looking for ways to improve your trading. This is an excellent trait to keep you focused and not become complacent with your success. I can relate to your early blunders with trading and your persistence - I joined up here circa 2006 and spent considerable time chasing my tail. I was also fortunate enough to have a mentor point out where the "games" are being played - its night and day when you've learned where not to trade. That doesn't even occur to many. The help you received clearly set you about trading in a far more structured manner. So newbies would do well to follow your contributions carefully.

"I may regret that exit!". Interesting. I think how quickly you can let go of your forecast, control your ego, and follow your intuition when the trade is not developing as expected is one of the single most important areas of focus and can make the difference between a mediocre trader and a very good trader. You do that very well on trades which are beginning to behave "iffy", so don't regret too much!

The second area of focus which has a massive effect on your long term results is compounding. Difficult to do at first when you must make regular withdrawals to cover your living expenses- so live humbly, frugally, and low profile. Retaining as much profit as possible to back a bigger position size with which to trade, up to the limit the market will support, is key. If you can continue this level of consistency through various market cycles, trading 10 contracts on the exchange by the end of next year is feasible.

A final word about being low profile. I respect your intention to share and help others. But in less anonymous real life, you might want to be a little more private about your results, as otherwise it can attract the wrong sorts of attention. Human nature being as it is, there may come a time when you must re-evaluate whether to continue posting here also.

Cheers and continued success.

Hi thanks for the feedback and suggestions. I will try to answer some of the points you have made best I can just now...

On post #14, October 7 the trade was based on the the price action on lower time frames at this zone, it was an important resistance band or cluster of resistance points around this area that was of interest to me in the first place.

The price action that took place was confirming to me that it was likely to hold, the other part of this trade decision was the DAX had just rallied about 50pts at the U.S open to this zone and looked weak here ahead of the European close, therefore my view was that Europe would sell into this zone before the close as the 8600 is an important level and in my opinion unlikely to break on that day.

For post #35 I provided a 15 minute chart with divergence on it, though the actual trading decision to enter was established on the 2 minute chart when I saw the 15m divergence possibility forming, this was the first test of the 8560/70 resistance zone since the open, therefore I was expected this zone to hold first time of asking. The 2 minute chart rejected cleanly of this zone with a rejection spike and then bearish engulfing candle, with that price action signal and the 15 minute divergence beginning to form, I decided to take the trade short.

If the 8560/70 zone had already been tested during market hours before this scenario, then I wouldn't have taken the trade, the signals were just matching my theory that the lead up to the test of the zone was looking weak and it was the 'first touch' of the session for this resistance. Though after the entry it soon became apparent to me that price was not going to sell off as expected, it was reluctant to take out and remain below 8550, so I binned the trade and moved on.

I have attached the 2 minute chart to show what I saw.

In terms of using the RSI with out of hours data, its a good point you raise, I should have cleared that up at the start. I actually use other charting for my analysis and just use the SB charts for posting and scribbling to put my thoughts and views across and as its the SB prices I'm trading. The charting I use for my analysis only has the official market hours.

I will need to do a check on my records for my European hours v U.S hours results to see if there is much of a difference. Will likely spend sometime over the weekend doing this.

Hope this helps.

Nick
 

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Post #14 - understood. I hope your analysis of the US hours proves fruitful. Noted you are using time of day and the changes in order flow related to the market close, which also introduces a few interesting setups. Of course I do not expect anyone to post details here.

Post #35 - well explained, thanks. An aggressive trade for sure (not for newbies), but well reasoned and your timing is right, as well as knowing what you need to see. This is key as most traders wouldn't be able to get anything from that trade. Knowing which timeline to use to make decisions and also an appreciation of how your own knowledge, skill, reaction time affects what trades to take is useful also.

Am not surprised that you are using other charts in other configurations. ;-)

It isn't often we see clear, well reasoned demonstrations of applied knowledge and skill here. Certainly brightens up the site, and it is always nice to see others succeed. Long may it continue.
 
Levels to watch today -

Support - 8505/15, 8475, 8460/50, 8430, 8405

Resistance - 8560/70, 8600/10, 8630(unfilled gap), 8645, 8685/700
 
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