The Coin Flip

higherSelfishness

Active member
103 9
Can it be used to create a viable method?

If I flip a coin at the same time every single day, how often will I see a profit of 1 pip? 2 pips? 30 pips? How often will I see a loss of 1 pip? . . . 2? . . . 30? After 24 hours, how often will I be up? How often will I be in the red?

To descend further down the rabbit hole: If I flip a coin . . . how often will I see a profit of 1 pip before I see a loss of 1 pip (accounting for spread)? Or gain of 1 before loss of 2? Or gain of 2 before loss of 10?

If I gain 2 pips before I lose 10 pips, I would need to maintain a win percentage only marginally higher than 83% in order to be profitable long-term.

What if you place your stop at the overnight low if the flip calls long, or overnight high if the flip calls short? Or yesterday's low and yesterday's high? How much do you go for?

Do you think we would begin to find consistencies?
 
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BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
Since you already know how to trade and looking for technique on spending the winnings, why do you need the coin flip ?
 
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aparoid89

Active member
146 1
I would assume that you would win half the time and lose half the time if the stop loss and take profit were equal distances away from the starting price. Accounting for commissions and spread you would lose money overall.
 

piggybridges

Established member
632 200
I told you guy a month or so ago that 'random entry' would be a common subject soon and there's already been quite a few threads on it. It's the new 'pin bar'.
I could sense it. Like the change in the smell of the air before a storm.
 

ffsear

Senior member
2,157 439
Target 20 pips, Risk 10 pips - each trade. - Anything less then a 2:1 I doubt will work

Why don't you set up a new thread and test it?
 

YouAreNotFree

Experienced member
1,295 225
Jees, there's an awful lot of threads about coin flipping recently. Not that you cannot learn anything from such a thread, but are T2W members that desperate for method of trading?
 

ffsear

Senior member
2,157 439
Its actually more about statistics and numbers rather then "method". So its a very its quite an interesting topic (for those that understand). - No ones forcing you to read!
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,137 1,225
Coin flipping's a sidetrack - who uses coins these days? But there is a TA equivalent - use the bracket trade on a market that's ranging, so that if it breaks out in either direction you will be riding the new price action. No doubt someone will come on here soon and tell us that's how they made their millions.
 

The Leopard

Experienced member
1,877 1,020
EDIT: I wrote "Where is The Hare?" before his post appeared. My question has been answered.

Where is The Hare? :D

The concept of randomness and random entries is actually a fascinating and potentially very useful one if you give it a little thought.

I say that as someone who uses a purely discretionary approach. The reason I have found it useful is it has forced me to consider and (I hope) fully accept aspects of my trading method that are necessary if a discretionary approach is to be viable.

I also find that the concept of randomness can have a very positive psychological impact (although this depends upon one's viewpoint I suppose, as it could I imagine have the exact opposite effect for someone else).

But in any case, there are a number of very useful exercises to conduct and lessons to be learned from a coin toss.
 
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the hare

Senior member
2,949 1,283
EDIT: I wrote "Where is The Hare?" before his post appeared. My question has been answered.

Where is The Hare? :D

I am literally rolling around on the floor laughing...

How can anyone actually have any sort of sensible debate at this place given the explosive mixture of complete ignorance, combined with various hidden agenda's seeking to exploit that ignorance to further their own ends !
 

The Leopard

Experienced member
1,877 1,020
I am literally rolling around on the floor laughing...

How can anyone actually have any sort of sensible debate at this place given the explosive mixture of complete ignorance, combined with various hidden agenda's seeking to exploit that ignorance to further their own ends !

A fair point, and a view that I share.

However, I have derived some benefit nonetheless. I had not really considered the matter before reading some of your posts, but I am now very glad that I did read them and think about them.

The concepts that you have raised should be of value to everyone who attempts to trade for a living, regardless of their method or approach. Despite your best efforts :LOL:, you've actually (in my opinion) provided a lot of very valuable content, at least for those with the willingness to put in a bit of serious thought.

You may not have let cats out of bags, but you have shown people bags with miaows emanating from them, suggesting the presence of cats therein. For those that are curious, that should be enough for them to do a little investigating of their own.

So I agree with you, but that doesn't mean that there is nothing useful to be learned here. It does however require wading through a truly astonishing quantity of dross (and, as you say, deliberate misinformation).
 
 
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