The Coin Flip

[higherSelfishness]

Can it be used to create a viable method?

If I flip a coin at the same time every single day, how often will I see a profit of 1 pip? 2 pips? 30 pips? How often will I see a loss of 1 pip? . . . 2? . . . 30? After 24 hours, how often will I be up? How often will I be in the red?

To descend further down the rabbit hole: If I flip a coin . . . how often will I see a profit of 1 pip before I see a loss of 1 pip (accounting for spread)? Or gain of 1 before loss of 2? Or gain of 2 before loss of 10?

If I gain 2 pips before I lose 10 pips, I would need to maintain a win percentage only marginally higher than 83% in order to be profitable long-term.

What if you place your stop at the overnight low if the flip calls long, or overnight high if the flip calls short? Or yesterday's low and yesterday's high? How much do you go for?

Do you think we would begin to find consistencies?

 

[Soloquan]

 

[higherSelfishness]

ah, bloody hell... I guess I just don't "get" you folks here!

it is rather daft, solo, I'll give you that.

 

[DionysusToast]

The hare has much to answer for!

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Since you already know how to trade and looking for technique on spending the winnings, why do you need the coin flip ?

 

[aparoid89]

I would assume that you would win half the time and lose half the time if the stop loss and take profit were equal distances away from the starting price. Accounting for commissions and spread you would lose money overall.

 

[piggybridges]

I told you guy a month or so ago that 'random entry' would be a common subject soon and there's already been quite a few threads on it. It's the new 'pin bar'.
I could sense it. Like the change in the smell of the air before a storm.

 

[ffsear]

Target 20 pips, Risk 10 pips - each trade. - Anything less then a 2:1 I doubt will work

Why don't you set up a new thread and test it?

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Jees, there's an awful lot of threads about coin flipping recently. Not that you cannot learn anything from such a thread, but are T2W members that desperate for method of trading?

 

[ffsear]

Its actually more about statistics and numbers rather then "method". So its a very its quite an interesting topic (for those that understand). - No ones forcing you to read!

 

[tomorton]

Coin flipping's a sidetrack - who uses coins these days? But there is a TA equivalent - use the bracket trade on a market that's ranging, so that if it breaks out in either direction you will be riding the new price action. No doubt someone will come on here soon and tell us that's how they made their millions.

 

[the hare]

lulz

 

[The Leopard]

EDIT: I wrote "Where is The Hare?" before his post appeared. My question has been answered.

Where is The Hare?

The concept of randomness and random entries is actually a fascinating and potentially very useful one if you give it a little thought.

I say that as someone who uses a purely discretionary approach. The reason I have found it useful is it has forced me to consider and (I hope) fully accept aspects of my trading method that are necessary if a discretionary approach is to be viable.

I also find that the concept of randomness can have a very positive psychological impact (although this depends upon one's viewpoint I suppose, as it could I imagine have the exact opposite effect for someone else).

But in any case, there are a number of very useful exercises to conduct and lessons to be learned from a coin toss.

 

[the hare]

EDIT: I wrote "Where is The Hare?" before his post appeared. My question has been answered.

Where is The Hare?

I am literally rolling around on the floor laughing...

How can anyone actually have any sort of sensible debate at this place given the explosive mixture of complete ignorance, combined with various hidden agenda's seeking to exploit that ignorance to further their own ends !

 

[The Leopard]

I am literally rolling around on the floor laughing...

How can anyone actually have any sort of sensible debate at this place given the explosive mixture of complete ignorance, combined with various hidden agenda's seeking to exploit that ignorance to further their own ends !

A fair point, and a view that I share.

However, I have derived some benefit nonetheless. I had not really considered the matter before reading some of your posts, but I am now very glad that I did read them and think about them.

The concepts that you have raised should be of value to everyone who attempts to trade for a living, regardless of their method or approach. Despite your best efforts , you've actually (in my opinion) provided a lot of very valuable content, at least for those with the willingness to put in a bit of serious thought.

You may not have let cats out of bags, but you have shown people bags with miaows emanating from them, suggesting the presence of cats therein. For those that are curious, that should be enough for them to do a little investigating of their own.

So I agree with you, but that doesn't mean that there is nothing useful to be learned here. It does however require wading through a truly astonishing quantity of dross (and, as you say, deliberate misinformation).

 

[ffsear]

I am literally rolling around on the floor laughing...

How can anyone actually have any sort of sensible debate at this place given the explosive mixture of complete ignorance, combined with various hidden agenda's seeking to exploit that ignorance to further their own ends !

How can anyone have any form of debate with this level of arrogance flying about here.

 

[The Leopard]

How can anyone have any form of debate with this level of arrogance flying about here.

I don't think it's arrogance, just an opinion expressed in a fairly robust manner.

There is an awful lot of crap that needs cutting through on T2W, you can't expect people to tiptoe around the whole time.

 

[ffsear]

8 threads updated in this forum today. Its hardly busy here compared to other trading channels.

And I don't see anything ignorant about the thread starters question. People are acting as if he's come on here asking "can i make money by tossing a coin?" Which is not the case..

The only crap on here is idiots who pipe up with childish remarks such as "I'm literally rolling on the floor laughing"

To many people constantly posting when they have nothing to say is the real problem here!

 

[the hare]

And I don't see anything ignorant about the thread starters question.

Neither do I.

 

[The Leopard]

8 threads updated in this forum today. Its hardly busy here compared to other trading channels.

And I don't see anything ignorant about the thread starters question. People are acting as if he's come on here asking "can i make money by tossing a coin?" Which is not the case..

The only crap on here is idiots who pipe up with childish remarks such as "I'm literally rolling on the floor laughing"

To many people constantly posting when they have nothing to say is the real problem here!

I think you've misunderstood the response. I doubt that The Hare was laughing at the OP asking a question - I think he was laughing at some of the responses.