Gaucho and Nelson
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Tenterfield Saddler
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peto
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chump said:
Survival of his genes to the next and subsequent generations, perhaps, albeit at an instinctive, automatic level. Even where the recipient is no direct relation,a religious person will expect to be rewarded in the next life. An atheist may consider that we live on in the memory of others, if so then what more memorable an action is possible.
Gaucho and Nelson
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research clearly shows and athletes clearly understand that picturing and rehearsing in 'downtime' keeps the brain poised and the brain may not distinct between actual events and those purposely rehearsed......
http://www.chartgame.com/
www . chartgame . com
frankly, the indicia part is of far less use than the understanding of price levels, areas of transaction, where transacting attracted the most/least volume and how prior activity has drawn 'size' players to interact at those important price levels.....the important thing to remember when approaching any "technical analysis" is that indicia looks backwards and mathematically extrapolates forward, so, "x" periods ago may concern traders who are not trading now, in other words, the more you focus on the reason for transacting at the various price levels (not always support and resistance) the more likely you are focused on the correct reason for that transacting rather than a mathematical distortion of what might-be.....
if youre serious about trading, the last few years have shown, inclusive of most instruments, that a buy and hold strategy is a luxury of the last century, where you could hide behind buying at the wrong time and just wait or you could be wrong with bogus indicators and still win.....
......perfect practise makes perfect......maybe, some practise that costs time alone is an advantage over no practise at all.....imo
yes, breaking the bars down to lower time frames obviously assists in entrance/exits ....and too much data can overload....an overall focus and gaining a "sense" of zones of activity that size is transacting and then transact with that direction
where's my other journal....hmmmmm
mm1
http://www.chartgame.com/
www . chartgame . com
frankly, the indicia part is of far less use than the understanding of price levels, areas of transaction, where transacting attracted the most/least volume and how prior activity has drawn 'size' players to interact at those important price levels.....the important thing to remember when approaching any "technical analysis" is that indicia looks backwards and mathematically extrapolates forward, so, "x" periods ago may concern traders who are not trading now, in other words, the more you focus on the reason for transacting at the various price levels (not always support and resistance) the more likely you are focused on the correct reason for that transacting rather than a mathematical distortion of what might-be.....
if youre serious about trading, the last few years have shown, inclusive of most instruments, that a buy and hold strategy is a luxury of the last century, where you could hide behind buying at the wrong time and just wait or you could be wrong with bogus indicators and still win.....
......perfect practise makes perfect......maybe, some practise that costs time alone is an advantage over no practise at all.....imo
yes, breaking the bars down to lower time frames obviously assists in entrance/exits ....and too much data can overload....an overall focus and gaining a "sense" of zones of activity that size is transacting and then transact with that direction
where's my other journal....hmmmmm
mm1
Joules MM1
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http://www.businessinsider.com/jon-stewart-ben-bernanke-2010-12
businessinsider.com/jon-stewart-ben-bernanke-2010-12
businessinsider.com/jon-stewart-ben-bernanke-2010-12
Thanks for presenting the essentials of transaction based alignment
Gaucho and Nelson
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thanks superfly
i journaled this one as part of the "walk-away" trades
in the ftse
this weeks end would see bulk of cme local pit traders go flat coinciding with quad witch so stands to reason most other desks would too so opportunities to take the walk-away trade look rife for the taking (where avail to fill in for the time period when there's no income generation)
ftse open with extremely tight range and no real open sell/long plays and the sells/sell pressures seem to take longer than is usual for the ftse and that was the first hint that today is a diff ball game.....looks like a fake head down, overlapping bars as price comes back into w/a price range, taking too long to break, what are we waiting for?? who's in play today? i cant think that the major players have gone already.....another fake-down bar is quickly covered calling for a long at 86's.... taken..... an inverted bell curve is under way, gap-up, no resistance, no transactioning, starts to gather pace and the relative time taken is now way too fast compared to the time since the open..... then stalls.... i think of the target i mark from the open....ah, yes, of course, 5900, nice round number, sellers would join in...... retries, stalls out and calls for an exit on the second lower bar, that means, i think i should take this first stall and watch.....the questions are instant; how come an abnormal open with what looks like fake moves and j curve up, with no resistance, at easy pace and then a stall after all the energy is spent....i think that the fake moves arent fake at all and they are probably a gather of supply allowing for retailers to open sell for instant squeez.....i think about the time of the day and week and year, with this type and size move is just wrong to me with a roundish number to be hit....so i take the exit...but then i ask, if this is a practised move to allow long pos to be excised then that means a downside play is at least likely to bring price back into todays launch pos and with the completion of the second bar down from the high i open a sell and wait allowing for a 3 point stop ....an impulsive sell comes....its very fast, likely a news prompt but i wasnt aware that there was any "value" news to be released so i consider this is the real set-up that using a release as the trigger and the j curve was the double set-up (not to close open longs but to allow for sells to open) ..... i look to buy back at the 5885 level as that is typically a magnet being the launch point (what i now determin to be a fake)....under the asupices of elliott i also know that a break of the 5882 means a considerable points move below is likely to occur in the same session...the speed surprised me so i wait once the sell close is filled and i decide that i can risk to retake and open a short at where the initial sells take place, just below the high, allowing for 6 point stop....await to close the second open sell at the original launch area but price does not catch any bids, no resistance downside, which calls to leave the open sell and use the launch pos as a stop....price gets to 5880 and finds the transactions, so i wait for a test of supply and price chops into 5875 so i close half but test of supply doesnt seem to have occured not in the way i would expect to see it so i lower the stop for the remaining pos.......5882 being the low of the fake launch bar.....test of supply comes, at least, i think its the test...keeping in mind that a complete 3 sigma move has just taken place (from an inside high to low point of view) so set a buy back at 5870 as that is basically an equal distance from the launch point on the low side as it is from the high side.....price breaks easily to and through 5870 and i think about the major wedge i saw in the weekly view of the ftse and consider re-opening the sell and just then transactioning occurs, bids come ....i consider that today has been good and that the current move is so wide that i should just watch....the move doesnt eventually stall until 5858 and then the majors have done their duty, no size buys no size sells.....looks like, feels like a closing play....it was also an impulsive selling move and is bound to set-up a sell into january if a new high cant be taken over the next three weeks....coincidentally i took a sell on the euro because the previous few days had a plastic look to the transactioning....
set-ups are set-ups and i know that a lot of people think its bubcus, this reasoning, but, with history being history, well, it's in the price, the story of auctioning....isnt it?.....
i mainly like to journalise these rarities because they are quite marvellous and a lot of thought and energy must go into them...their should be a play book for them somewhere....but i'm not the one to write it ....
a j curve, with no opposition, out of a congestion, last day of week, last part of the year....yeah, that's true-blue bull****
acknowledgements to mister marcus for past conversations that led to this play
i journaled this one as part of the "walk-away" trades
in the ftse
this weeks end would see bulk of cme local pit traders go flat coinciding with quad witch so stands to reason most other desks would too so opportunities to take the walk-away trade look rife for the taking (where avail to fill in for the time period when there's no income generation)
ftse open with extremely tight range and no real open sell/long plays and the sells/sell pressures seem to take longer than is usual for the ftse and that was the first hint that today is a diff ball game.....looks like a fake head down, overlapping bars as price comes back into w/a price range, taking too long to break, what are we waiting for?? who's in play today? i cant think that the major players have gone already.....another fake-down bar is quickly covered calling for a long at 86's.... taken..... an inverted bell curve is under way, gap-up, no resistance, no transactioning, starts to gather pace and the relative time taken is now way too fast compared to the time since the open..... then stalls.... i think of the target i mark from the open....ah, yes, of course, 5900, nice round number, sellers would join in...... retries, stalls out and calls for an exit on the second lower bar, that means, i think i should take this first stall and watch.....the questions are instant; how come an abnormal open with what looks like fake moves and j curve up, with no resistance, at easy pace and then a stall after all the energy is spent....i think that the fake moves arent fake at all and they are probably a gather of supply allowing for retailers to open sell for instant squeez.....i think about the time of the day and week and year, with this type and size move is just wrong to me with a roundish number to be hit....so i take the exit...but then i ask, if this is a practised move to allow long pos to be excised then that means a downside play is at least likely to bring price back into todays launch pos and with the completion of the second bar down from the high i open a sell and wait allowing for a 3 point stop ....an impulsive sell comes....its very fast, likely a news prompt but i wasnt aware that there was any "value" news to be released so i consider this is the real set-up that using a release as the trigger and the j curve was the double set-up (not to close open longs but to allow for sells to open) ..... i look to buy back at the 5885 level as that is typically a magnet being the launch point (what i now determin to be a fake)....under the asupices of elliott i also know that a break of the 5882 means a considerable points move below is likely to occur in the same session...the speed surprised me so i wait once the sell close is filled and i decide that i can risk to retake and open a short at where the initial sells take place, just below the high, allowing for 6 point stop....await to close the second open sell at the original launch area but price does not catch any bids, no resistance downside, which calls to leave the open sell and use the launch pos as a stop....price gets to 5880 and finds the transactions, so i wait for a test of supply and price chops into 5875 so i close half but test of supply doesnt seem to have occured not in the way i would expect to see it so i lower the stop for the remaining pos.......5882 being the low of the fake launch bar.....test of supply comes, at least, i think its the test...keeping in mind that a complete 3 sigma move has just taken place (from an inside high to low point of view) so set a buy back at 5870 as that is basically an equal distance from the launch point on the low side as it is from the high side.....price breaks easily to and through 5870 and i think about the major wedge i saw in the weekly view of the ftse and consider re-opening the sell and just then transactioning occurs, bids come ....i consider that today has been good and that the current move is so wide that i should just watch....the move doesnt eventually stall until 5858 and then the majors have done their duty, no size buys no size sells.....looks like, feels like a closing play....it was also an impulsive selling move and is bound to set-up a sell into january if a new high cant be taken over the next three weeks....coincidentally i took a sell on the euro because the previous few days had a plastic look to the transactioning....
set-ups are set-ups and i know that a lot of people think its bubcus, this reasoning, but, with history being history, well, it's in the price, the story of auctioning....isnt it?.....
i mainly like to journalise these rarities because they are quite marvellous and a lot of thought and energy must go into them...their should be a play book for them somewhere....but i'm not the one to write it ....
a j curve, with no opposition, out of a congestion, last day of week, last part of the year....yeah, that's true-blue bull****
acknowledgements to mister marcus for past conversations that led to this play
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Gaucho and Nelson,
Thanks for your analysis.
The long action is a slam dunk if you know what your doing,
I would have gone short once (maybe twice) on the early openig action beeing aware that there is some bagage the market had to go through before it could freefall.
I would be content with break even results on the short(s) since they had minimal followthrough.
(Down move lacked conviction, so it might go up, Lets see .. Its time to train to stay away of the obvious mediocer plays more frequent)
Im extremely selective and critical of what I watch .. since too much data can overload..
2 Q:
1-what (time)fractals do you use?
2-next time could you place prices on the left side of your char?
So its easier to follow the levels you mention in your post since.
Im not familiar with the ftse, since only look at and trade CL futures.
Maybe just for your info or amusment:
What type of fractalization of price would be most benefitial ror reading the:
A-CL dominant Bias Levels, Phase and Direction.
B-timing of [A] alined CL brakeouts or turns (based on CL and 2 intermarkets).
C-CL levels for entry past turninpoint and trailling.
After many reflections Im happy to exploit 3 charts
a] CL constant volume
b] CL (+2intermarket) constant time
c[ CL constant range.
My tailormade Clearview. Its art...
Fine hollidays for you and mr.marcus
Thanks for your analysis.
The long action is a slam dunk if you know what your doing,
I would have gone short once (maybe twice) on the early openig action beeing aware that there is some bagage the market had to go through before it could freefall.
I would be content with break even results on the short(s) since they had minimal followthrough.
(Down move lacked conviction, so it might go up, Lets see .. Its time to train to stay away of the obvious mediocer plays more frequent)
Im extremely selective and critical of what I watch .. since too much data can overload..
2 Q:
1-what (time)fractals do you use?
2-next time could you place prices on the left side of your char?
So its easier to follow the levels you mention in your post since.
Im not familiar with the ftse, since only look at and trade CL futures.
Maybe just for your info or amusment:
What type of fractalization of price would be most benefitial ror reading the:
A-CL dominant Bias Levels, Phase and Direction.
B-timing of [A] alined CL brakeouts or turns (based on CL and 2 intermarkets).
C-CL levels for entry past turninpoint and trailling.
After many reflections Im happy to exploit 3 charts
a] CL constant volume
b] CL (+2intermarket) constant time
c[ CL constant range.
My tailormade Clearview. Its art...
Fine hollidays for you and mr.marcus
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Joules MM1
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not so much an analysis, more of a memory check and diarising the make-up of the action as it unfurled and the thoughts surrounding the trades.....i'm more concerned about capturing the moment of action so i can revise in the future and have the set-up(s) replay, which i find is very useful.....i put a lot of cop on diarising trades and doing mental replays..... i think that method does make a difference..... i have an average iq, average memory, average calculus side, average imagery side....the replaying does add an edge.....i think that anyone who has practised and run though fully diarised trades would agree...if nothing else, that provides focus, provided, of course, that that focus is directed correctly
fractal wise, well, yeah, there's obvious fractals in there, but, they're no good to me in hindsight and i can't see them until well into the move, so, i can see them near the end of the move down off the trigger, at the low, so, yes, at that point i often expect a stalling out of momentum but not necessarily of direction and while a fractal may assist in the bigger picture, the picture i have to deal with is concerned at a lower and active level, so, i dont want to get too academic in a live trade when seconds make a difference....that's probably the best way i can refer to fractals these days....in the 10 year T note i was long on at the time, that maybe different, but, even so, the trade is different set-up, looking at hourly with set levels of stop/pendings, whereas the ftse play was in inside play that needs inspection of every bar and every bar gets questioned....also, this isnt a tick chart that youre seeing, so, in many respects i acknowledge that the first trade is not an entirely sound move on a technical basis and neither was the open sell at the top and you'll notice that the stop i used at the top was wider than the first trade stop ..there are good reasons for this which i havent gone into....suffice to say, amongst the action, little time is allowed for any other technical process and my capacity to take on anything outside of what other traders might be trying to achieve in the auction process, is, well, pretty limited, hence, there are no indicators.....a lot can happen inside a 1 minute bar and i dont have a DOM pink/white sheets or squawk box, so, all the thought process goes into something else....even if i did have all those things, the auction game would require (for me) to ask the right questions as price discovery is made; what are the retailers doing, what are the pro doing....
time.....i understand the time symmetry/geometric and fractalisation stuff but found a long time a go (no pun) that those methods distract from the auction, they are linear and never made me any money .....i would like to say that i wasnt profficient enough at the technical level, but, i suspect there's more to it than that.....time does play a big role and i ask about the use of time versus the task to be accomplished by whom for what price level.....i guess if youre up against bots that have price ratios and time symmetries set in them then that'd be different but which instrument would have that, i dont know about.....obviously, i tend to steer away from the technical stuff these days as i find them interesting as a supposition....
keeping in mind that the ftse trade is a minute by minute live trade
thanks for the good cheer, hope youre well too
cheers superfly
joules
Gaucho and Nelson
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COPPER WIRE After having dug to a depth of 10 feet last year, British scientists found traces of copper wire dating back 200 years and came to the conclusion that their ancestors already had a telephone network more than 150 years ago. Not to be outdone by the Brit's, in the weeks that followed, an American archaeologist dug to a depth of 20 feet, and shortly after, a story published in the New York Times: "American archaeologists, finding traces of 250-year-old copper wire, have concluded that their ancestors already had an advanced high-tech communications network 50 years earlier than the British". One week later, the state’s Dept of Minerals and Energy in Western Australia , reported the following: "After digging as deep as 30 feet in Western Australia ’s Pilbara region, Jack Lucknow, a self-taught archaeologist, reported that he found absolutely nothing at all. Jack has therefore concluded that 250 years ago, Australia had already gone wireless." Just makes you bloody proud to be Australian.
Yes, yes..at the same time I..
-am anaytical..
-love to extract/model the essential/concept..
-can be impulsive under stress..
So I build myself a beautifull dynamic structure to
-reduce the risk and the number of standardized decisionpoints (rangecandle bo patern)
-(timely)value a decisonpoint in terms of Bias (Volume FLOW) & timing(intermarket)
Thanks for the exchange of ideas.
Above all it helped me to more fully understand..
-what kind of a trader I am..
-how I should organize and conduct my own trading..
Cheers,
PS next time I post on t2w Im a multy millionaire and Im not joking..:clover:
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Joules MM1
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A gynaecologist had become fed up with malpractice insurance and paperwork, and was burned out. Hoping to try another career where skilful hands would be beneficial, he decided to become a mechanic. He went to the local technical college, signed up for evening classes, attended diligently, and learned all he could. When the time of the practical exam approached, the gynaecologist prepared carefully for weeks, and completed the exam with tremendous skill. When the results came back, he was surprised to find that he had obtained a score of 150%. Fearing an error, he called the Instructor, saying, "I don't want to appear ungrateful for such an outstanding result, but I wonder if there is an error in the grade?" "The instructor said, "During the exam, you took the engine apart perfectly, which was worth 50% of the total mark. You put the engine back together again perfectly, which is also worth 50% of the mark." After a pause, the instructor added, "I gave you an extra 50% because you did it all through the exhaust, which I've never seen done in my entire career"
by richard1
by richard1
Joules MM1
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downtime viewing
the after lunch viewhttp://www.artifacting.com/blog/2010/09/15/climbing-a-1768-foot-transmission-tower/
and after anything view
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcF-6ZSX8u4
the after lunch viewhttp://www.artifacting.com/blog/2010/09/15/climbing-a-1768-foot-transmission-tower/
and after anything view
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcF-6ZSX8u4
Joules MM1
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this has to be idiot comment of the week: "failed pattern"
that's simply too funny....
so, does that mean all other patterns are successful?
when would you know? when the patterns complete and you cant trade it anyway?
patterns provide the perfect excuse and fillip for fuzzy logic, a cover for a lack of knowledge about what's really going on.....select a pattern, select an opinion, when the pattern doesnt fit the fuzzy opinion, just blame the pattern.....
there's an extent to which pattern recognition fails in itself.....that's the point that the trader owns up to the limitations they have placed on price....and failed to understand the process they are seeing....the seeing has failed, not the pattern....
"look, this patterns failing" compared to what? it's a live trade!! how can the pattern, of itself, be failing?
way too funny
that's simply too funny....
so, does that mean all other patterns are successful?
when would you know? when the patterns complete and you cant trade it anyway?
patterns provide the perfect excuse and fillip for fuzzy logic, a cover for a lack of knowledge about what's really going on.....select a pattern, select an opinion, when the pattern doesnt fit the fuzzy opinion, just blame the pattern.....
there's an extent to which pattern recognition fails in itself.....that's the point that the trader owns up to the limitations they have placed on price....and failed to understand the process they are seeing....the seeing has failed, not the pattern....
"look, this patterns failing" compared to what? it's a live trade!! how can the pattern, of itself, be failing?
way too funny
Joules MM1
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Joules MM1
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i discovered an amazing pairs indicator last week, when combined and used when crossing can give great signals to take action for both entries and exits: ones called the right hemisphere and the other is called the left hemisphere. Obviously, there's debate on the most effective input, like, whether to use the left or the right first......try one.....
Joules MM1
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Joules MM1
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the fed ......
Joules MM1
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tweet:
TommyThornton Thomas Thornton
Warren Buffett on cover of Time Magazine with "The Optimist" as title. Pics of him partying w Jay Z. #Demark exhaustion. My fav short idea!!
TommyThornton Thomas Thornton
Warren Buffett on cover of Time Magazine with "The Optimist" as title. Pics of him partying w Jay Z. #Demark exhaustion. My fav short idea!!
Gaucho and Nelson
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Gaucho and Nelson said:
a good question, sounds almost a furfee, a kinda red herring......mm was right, learning to ask the right questions has greater value than simply offering standard answers.....