Close predictions for 12/12/2012

datumiq

Junior member
12 0
Close predictions for 12/12/2012
Released 9:45am at DatumIQ.com
Back tested over the last 10 years

82% chance ACN closes below 72.28
86% chance ADP closes below 58.74
84% chance AFL closes below 54.96
86% chance AXP closes above 57.12
85% chance BAC closes above 10.41
80% chance C closes above 36.54
80% chance CNQ closes below 29.19
81% chance COP closes above 58.18
84% chance CTSH closes below 74.14
84% chance DIS closes below 50.12
81% chance EMC closes below 25.27
85% chance EPD closes below 50.33
82% chance F closes above 11.44
79% chance FCX closes above 31.65
82% chance GG closes above 36.87
81% chance GOOG closes below 709.66
83% chance GS closes below 121.21
81% chance HOG closes below 49.08
83% chance INTC closes below 21.48
84% chance IWM closes below 84.39
90% chance JNJ closes above 71.02
80% chance LTM closes below 50.02
82% chance MCD closes below 90.18
84% chance MMM closes below 95.23
83% chance ORCL closes below 32.53
83% chance PM closes above 87.44
82% chance QCOM closes below 65.16
83% chance QQQ closes below 67.04
83% chance SPG closes above 153.59
88% chance SPY closes below 145.10
81% chance SU closes below 32.72
85% chance SYK closes below 56.65
84% chance T closes below 34.77
85% chance TEVA closes above 40.05
85% chance WMT closes above 68.66
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
What do you base that on? If the 90% chance one turns out to be wrong, how confident are you the other %'s are still 'accurate'?
 

datumiq

Junior member
12 0
What do you base that on? If the 90% chance one turns out to be wrong, how confident are you the other %'s are still 'accurate'?

Each probability for a stock is independent of a probability of another stock.
The probability is based off applying my proprietary algorithm on the last 10 years of a stock (approximately 2500 trading days). On my site when you click one of the tickers, the back tests are shown for the last 10 years to show the accuracy of the algorithm.
 

wackypete2

Legendary member
10,229 2,053
Of the ones that I checked they all opened this morning well in the direction that you are predicting. Seems natural to me that the percentages would be high in that case. There'a a better chance that if I bought/sold on open based on the direction you suggest I could lose but your "prediction(s)" would still be correct.

Show me something less obvious.

Peter
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
Each probability for a stock is independent of a probability of another stock.
The probability is based off applying my proprietary algorithm on the last 10 years of a stock (approximately 2500 trading days). On my site when you click one of the tickers, the back tests are shown for the last 10 years to show the accuracy of the algorithm.

How do you know the probability is independent?
 

datumiq

Junior member
12 0
Of the ones that I checked they all opened this morning well in the direction that you are predicting. Seems natural to me that the percentages would be high in that case. There'a a better chance that if I bought/sold on open based on the direction you suggest I could lose but your "prediction(s)" would still be correct.

Show me something less obvious.

Peter

That's a good point. What I can do is before the open (9:30am) I can give the probability the close will be plus/minus a certain amount.
For example if GE closes at 21.50 on 12/12. Then on 12/12 in the evening I can release the closing prediction for GE on 12/13, such as "GE closes below Open Price + 0.50, 85% probability ". So if whatever the open price is, just add 50 cents to it and that is the ceiling I am predicting.

I appreciate your feedback.
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
That's a good question. The probability of a stock is derived off patterns only within itself. So I do not look at the movements of other stocks when looking at one.

So the probability is not independent then...

How do you trade on this info?
 

datumiq

Junior member
12 0
So the probability is not independent then...

I'm sorry I mis-understood your question. I thought you were asking if it is dependent on any other things other than itself. In terms of the history of itself, you are correct it is based off it's own history.
 

datumiq

Junior member
12 0
How do you trade on this info?

As mentioned in the previous message

What I can do is before the open (9:30am) I can give the probability the close will be plus/minus a certain amount.
For example if GE closes at 21.50 on 12/12. Then on 12/12 in the evening I can release the closing prediction for GE on 12/13, such as "GE closes below Open Price + 0.50, 85% probability ". So if whatever the open price is, just add 50 cents to it and that is the ceiling I am predicting.

So in terms of trading if the prediction is GE will close above it's open price with 85% probability. Then if GE at anytime falls under the open price, then it can be considered to go long for the day since 85% chance it will close above open.
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
As mentioned in the previous message

What I can do is before the open (9:30am) I can give the probability the close will be plus/minus a certain amount.
For example if GE closes at 21.50 on 12/12. Then on 12/12 in the evening I can release the closing prediction for GE on 12/13, such as "GE closes below Open Price + 0.50, 85% probability ". So if whatever the open price is, just add 50 cents to it and that is the ceiling I am predicting.

So in terms of trading if the prediction is GE will close above it's open price with 85% probability. Then if GE at anytime falls under the open price, then it can be considered to go long for the day since 85% chance it will close above open.

Hmm, in terms of probability this is a mistake though isn't it.

You can look at historical prices and calculate a range it is likely to fall in. However, GIVEN that it drops below that price, the probability it will close above is a very different probability than the one which states it will close above the value. Make sense?
 

datumiq

Junior member
12 0
Hmm, in terms of probability this is a mistake though isn't it.

You can look at historical prices and calculate a range it is likely to fall in. However, GIVEN that it drops below that price, the probability it will close above is a very different probability than the one which states it will close above the value. Make sense?

Good analysis, however the algorithm does not take that into account since majority of cases the daily low is lower than Open and daily high is higher than Open. There are a few cases where Open is the low or high. But for a trading strategy if the prediction is price will close above open and price during the day goes below open then consider buying long for that day. I do understand what you're saying on the intraday movement, I will see if there are any decent patterns with that included.
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
Not sure we understand eachother.

You gave some data, say 80% google will close below a price X. You used historical data for this.

Then I asked how you used this info to trade. I got the impression you were suggesting, that if Google rose above X at any time in the day, then you could short google, because it had an 80% chance of closing below X. This conclusion would be false. But I may have misunderstood how you are suggesting to trade on it.

So given say '81% chance GOOG closes below 709.66', how would you suggest trading on that information?
 

BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
So given say '81% chance GOOG closes below 709.66', how would you suggest trading on that information?

I'd imagine you would sell during the day if the price goes above 709.66 and buy back at close for profit.

All these imaginary/demo pips/points are really worthless. Let's see some real pips/points.
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
I'd imagine you would sell during the day if the price goes above 709.66.

All these imaginary/demo pips/points are really worthless. Let's see some real pips/points.

Yes, this is what I thought he was suggesting. But this is a probability mistake.
 
 
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