Purple Brain
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I wonder if the more experienced traders can comment on the following observations and analysis of the forex majors. It is a fledgling foray into an attempt to understand what is really going on in the currency markets with regard to what the big money players are doing. Inspired by some quite exceptional advice and support received. Even if horribly in error (quite likely), it is in no way a reflection on the individuals outstanding efforts in trying to inform and educate me and most definitely due to a lack of ability on my part.
The euro has potentially changed from an overall position of strength to one of weakness and rather too obvious for it to be true, probably occurred around April 17th. (Did anything occur on or around April 17th to change the mood?) While there will be sporadic up moves, the ‘money’ is selling.
Japanese Yen deliberately weakened by BoJ through effective and fairly massive QE will be the sale of choice albeit with sporadic buying to more optimum levels from which to sell.
Swiss Franc weak but subject to SCB intervention of both soft and hard flavours which makes it a volatile partner and therefore risky for directional plays.
British Sterling is in a position of some strength and possibly the buy of choice at the moment.
US dollar is strong except against sterling and the commodity dollars (Canadian, Australian and New Zealand).
A tentative and probably laughable attempt at a longer term view of the relative strengths of the majors as perhaps perceived by the strong hands and a perspective even us weak hands could perhaps consider (if correct) in the context of our much shorter term trades, not necessarily just to go with these relative strengths, but also to construct counter-strength moves to take advantage as the levels are manipulated to obtain better entry/re-entry levels for the professional money. While a 500 pip move for me would be several weeks’ worth of trades, I get the impression that’s an amount the big money would be willing to spend to move the level to get a better entry the other side of it.
GBP
CAD NZD
AUD
USD
EUR
CHF JPY
The euro has potentially changed from an overall position of strength to one of weakness and rather too obvious for it to be true, probably occurred around April 17th. (Did anything occur on or around April 17th to change the mood?) While there will be sporadic up moves, the ‘money’ is selling.
Japanese Yen deliberately weakened by BoJ through effective and fairly massive QE will be the sale of choice albeit with sporadic buying to more optimum levels from which to sell.
Swiss Franc weak but subject to SCB intervention of both soft and hard flavours which makes it a volatile partner and therefore risky for directional plays.
British Sterling is in a position of some strength and possibly the buy of choice at the moment.
US dollar is strong except against sterling and the commodity dollars (Canadian, Australian and New Zealand).
A tentative and probably laughable attempt at a longer term view of the relative strengths of the majors as perhaps perceived by the strong hands and a perspective even us weak hands could perhaps consider (if correct) in the context of our much shorter term trades, not necessarily just to go with these relative strengths, but also to construct counter-strength moves to take advantage as the levels are manipulated to obtain better entry/re-entry levels for the professional money. While a 500 pip move for me would be several weeks’ worth of trades, I get the impression that’s an amount the big money would be willing to spend to move the level to get a better entry the other side of it.
GBP
CAD NZD
AUD
USD
EUR
CHF JPY