FXTechstrategy Team: Commodity Analysis

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Although Gold has halted its weakness and triggered a recovery for a second day in a row on a hammer formation, it will have to return above the 1,714.35 level to convince the market of further meaningful strength. If this occurs, additional recovery strength could build up towards the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high and possibly higher towards the 1,84 outlook on Gold 50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, the risk to our upside outlook will be a return to the 1,627.50 level. Further down, support lies at the 1,601.10 level. We may see a respite here but if that fails to occur, further declines could follow towards the 1,522.55 level, its Dec 2011 low. A break of here will open the door for further weakness towards its psycho level at 1,500.00. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its nearer term downside bias despite recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Commodity Technical Outlook: GOLD

GOLD: Vulnerable, Continues To Face Downside Risk. GOLD: While the commodity remains bearish and vulnerable to the downside, there is a likely risk of further declines. In such a case, the 1,627.50 level will come in as the next downside target with a violation of there aiming at the 1,601.10 level. We may see a respite here but if that fails to occur, further declines could follow towards the 1,522.55 level, its Dec 2011 low. A break of here will open the door for further weakness towards its psycho level at 1,500.00. Alternatively, the commodity will have to return above the 1,714.35 level to open further upside towards the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high and possibly higher towards the 1,84 outlook on Gold 50 level. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its nearer term downside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Maintains Bearish Momentum, Looks To Weaken Further.

GOLD: Having violated the 1,612.10 level and continuing to hold on to its broader bearishness, the risk is for more declines to occur despite its current price hesitation. In such a case, the 1,522.55 level, its Dec 2011 low will come in as the next downside target with a break of here opening the door for further weakness towards its psycho level at 1,500.00. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower. Alternatively, the commodity will have to return above the 1,714.35 level to annul its present downside threats and then open further upside towards the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high and possibly higher towards the 1,84 outlook on Gold 50 level. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its short term downside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Bounces Off Lower Prices, Faces Further Recovery Risk

GOLD: With The commodity bounced off lower level prices during Wednesday, a third such bounces in May’2012. While this portends an upside recovery risk, as long as GOLD continues to trade and hold below its declining trendline, the broader risk remains lower. This means the commodity could return to its recent lows at the 1,527/33 levels. A violation of there will resume its broader weakness towards the 1,500.00 level. Price hesitation could occur here due to psycho level but if that level gives way expect Gold to decline further towards 1,478.05 level. On the other hand, on a break above the mentioned trendline currently at the 1,604 level and the 1,598 level, further price extension could develop towards the 1,624 level and then the 1,670.70 level. Above the latter will open up further upside risk towards the 1,700.00 level. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its medium term downside bias though attempting a recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Risk Of Further Recovery Develops (Commodity Technical Outlook)

GOLD: With GOLD halting its broader weakness to rally strongly the past week, the commodity faces the risk of further upside offensive. However, it continues to hold on to its medium term downtrend. This suggests that its present recovery could fade and turn it lower towards the 1,522/27 levels. A cut through here will call for further declines towards the 1,500.00 level. Price hesitation could occur here due to psycho level but if that level gives way expect Gold to decline further towards 1,478.05 level. On the upside, the risk is for it to recover further towards the 1,642.15 level. If this level breaks, further upside should build up towards the 1,670.70 level and possibly the 1,700 level. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its medium term downside bias though recovering.

 

[SaraRose]

Re: GOLD: Bounces Off Lower Prices, Faces Further Recovery Risk

The reason why the gold jumped on Friday divided for two: first, it reached a strong support (1525) in the weekly chart, that each time the metal touched this level it rose dozens of points. Second, the collapse of the stocks made the investors to transfer their money to instruments that considered more stable such as precious metals (although I don't think that gold is stable in the past 6 months) and this caused a sharp short-squeeze. The metal might continue to 1670 with the current momentum, but I believe that the general trend is bearish (descending triangle in the weekly chart), which means that we will see the gold under 1500 points soon.

 

[NVP]

Re: GOLD: Bounces Off Lower Prices, Faces Further Recovery Risk

Gold is now looking more possible as a buy for the first time since February

I would prefer USD to be more bearish but against all fiat G8 generally Gold is looking stronger

N

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Tumbles Off the 1,632.85 Level, Risk Builds On Key Support

GOLD: GOLD has ended its corrective recovery as it tumbled off the 1,632.85 level on Monday and continues to sell off. This development now leaves the commodity targeting 1,557.30 level, its Jun 08’2012 low where a break will drive it further lower towards its key supports located at the 1,557/27 levels. A cut through will resume its broader medium term weakness and then pave the way for further declines towards the 1,500.00 level. Price hesitation could occur here but if that level gives way, expect Gold to decline further towards 1,478.05 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative view will be the commodity to return above the 1,632.85 level thus opening the door for more upside towards the 1,670.70 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,700 level. All in all, GOLD continues to hold on to its broader medium term downside as it looks to resume that trend.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

CRUDE OIL: Recovering But Vulnerable In The Medium Term

CRUDE OIL: While a recovery is now in place, Crude Oil continues to hold on to its broader medium term downtrend. This leaves the possibility of a return to the 77.28 level on the cards. A breach of here will extend further declines towards the 76.45 level followed by the 74.00 level. The alternative scenario will be for the commodity to move back above the 88.98 level. This will pave the way for a move further higher towards its psycho level at The 90.00 level. A cut through here will aim at 96.16 level and then the 100 level. All in all, Crude Oil continues to maintain its broader medium term downside bias though facing a recovery risk.

 

[rsh01]

Re: CRUDE OIL: Recovering But Vulnerable In The Medium Term

Prob better in the "energy" section rather than "fx strat & systems".

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

CRUDE OIL: Recovering But Vulnerable In The Medium Term

CRUDE OIL: While a recovery is now in place, Crude Oil continues to hold on to its broader medium term downtrend. This leaves the possibility of a return to the 77.28 level on the cards. A breach of here will extend further declines towards the 76.45 level followed by the 74.00 level. The alternative scenario will be for the commodity to move back above the 88.98 level. This will pave the way for a move further higher towards its psycho level at The 90.00 level. A cut through here will aim at 96.16 level and then the 100 level. All in all, Crude Oil continues to maintain its broader medium term downside bias though facing a recovery risk.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Weakness Consistent With Its Broader Medium Downside Bias.

GOLD: With GOLD weak and vulnerable, further declines is likely towards the 1,546/41 levels. A cut through here will turn attention to the 1,527 level, its May 2012 low. While the 1,640/24 levels continue to hold as resistance levels, the above view remains valid. Below the 1,527 level will resume its broader medium term weakness and then pave the way for further declines towards the 1,500.00 level. Price hesitation could occur here but if that level gives way, expect Gold to decline further towards 1,478.05 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the commodity will have to break back above the 1,624.45 level to reverse its bear threats. This will set the stage for a run at the 1640.45 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,670.70 level. All in all, GOLD continues to hold on to its broader medium term downside.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Risk Remains Higher Towards The 1,700 Level.

GOLD: With consolidation now occurring above the 1,676 level following its last week rally, GOLD faces the risk of further upside. In such a case, the 1,700.00 level will be targeted. Price hesitation is expected at this level but if taken out, expect the commodity to strengthen further towards the 1,714 level and next the 1,750 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. The alternative scenario will be for the commodity to return to the 1,640.45 level where a reversal of roles as support is expected to occur. However, if this fails, further declines will shape up towards the 1,584 level and then the 1,544.35. Below here will call for a move lower towards the 1,527.05 level. All in all, GOLD continues to hold on to its bullish tone.

 

[NVP]

Re: GOLD: Risk Remains Higher Towards The 1,700 Level.

heres a simple approach to trading Gold

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...-basic-ideas-strategies-1203.html#post1960456

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Commodity Technical Outlook On CRUDE OIL

CRUDE OIL: The 98.26 Level Beckons.

CRUDE OIL: Having halted its corrective declines and turned higher, the risk is for Crude Oil to recapture the 98.26 level. As long as Crude Oil continues to hold above the 93.93/92.04 levels, there is risk of a recapture of the 98.26 level. A cut through here will call for a run at the 100.00 level followed by the 101.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for Crude Oil to break below the mentioned trendline and then target the 92.04 level. Below here will aim at the 86.82 level. This is consistent with its broader downside bias though it will have to take out the 84.05 level and the 77.70 level to resume that trend. Below here will resume its medium term weakness towards the 75.50 level. All in all, Crude Oil continues to hold on to its medium term bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

CRUDE OIL: Weakens Further, Eyes Key Support.

CRUDE OIL: With Crude Oil extending its corrective weakness, there is risk of further declines towards the 90.00 level. A respite may occur here but if taken out, expect further declines to develop towards the 88.00 level. Further down, support lies at the 86.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, Crude Oil will have to break and hold above the 100.39 level to resume its medium term uptrend. Above here will target the 102.00 level with a cut through here calling for a run at the 104.00 level followed by the 106.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil continues to hold on to its corrective weakness bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Commodity Technical Outlook: GOLD

GOLD: Backs Off Higher Prices, Corrects Lower

GOLD: With GOLD halting its upside offensive and triggering a correction, further bear threats could be seen. This may target the 1,736.15 level where we expect a halt to occur and turn the commodity higher but if this fails to occur, expect further declines towards the 1,700 level. Further down, support lies at the 1,640.45 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The cross will have to take out the 1,790 level to resume its medium term uptrend and open further upside risk towards the 1,800.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.850 level where a violation will call for a move higher towards the 1,900 level and then the 1,950.00 level. All in all, GOLD continues to hold on to its bullish tone.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

CRUDE OIL: Consolidating With Bear Risks

CRUDE OIL: While Crude Oil may have paused its declines and triggered a recovery to close higher the past week, it faces an uphill task of returning to the 93.81 level, its Sept 21’2012 high. Above here will have to occur to extend further upside towards the 100.39 level. It will have to break and hold above here to resume its medium term uptrend. This if seen will aim at the 102.00 level with a cut through here calling for a run at the 104.00 level. Support lies at the 88.94 level with cut through here resuming its short term weakness towards the 88.00 level. Further down, support lies at the 86.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil continues to face downside risks as long as it holds below the 93.21/63 levels.

 

[holenote]

Re: Commodity Technical Outlook: GOLD

I definitely wouldn't mind, hold it down just three more weeks, good enough for me to buy when I visit Singapore.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Sells Off, Targets The 1,700 Level.

GOLD: GOLD continues to weaken selling off strongly the past week and opening the door for more declines. Support lies at the 1,700.00 level on continued weakness where we expect a halt to occur and turn the commodity higher but if this fails to occur, expect further declines towards the 1,640.45 level level. Further down, support lies at the 1,600.o level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,790 level on ending its present bear threats. A violation of here will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 1,800.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.850 level where a violation will call for a move higher towards the 1,900 level and then the 1,950.00 level. All in all, GOLD continues to hold on to its corrective pullback tone as it looks to weaken further.