FXTechstrategy Team: Commodity Analysis

FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
2,279 5
GOLD: Although Gold has halted its weakness and triggered a recovery for a second day in a row on a hammer formation, it will have to return above the 1,714.35 level to convince the market of further meaningful strength. If this occurs, additional recovery strength could build up towards the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high and possibly higher towards the 1,84 outlook on Gold 50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, the risk to our upside outlook will be a return to the 1,627.50 level. Further down, support lies at the 1,601.10 level. We may see a respite here but if that fails to occur, further declines could follow towards the 1,522.55 level, its Dec 2011 low. A break of here will open the door for further weakness towards its psycho level at 1,500.00. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its nearer term downside bias despite recovery.
 

Attachments

FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
2,279 5
Commodity Technical Outlook: GOLD

GOLD: Vulnerable, Continues To Face Downside Risk. GOLD: While the commodity remains bearish and vulnerable to the downside, there is a likely risk of further declines. In such a case, the 1,627.50 level will come in as the next downside target with a violation of there aiming at the 1,601.10 level. We may see a respite here but if that fails to occur, further declines could follow towards the 1,522.55 level, its Dec 2011 low. A break of here will open the door for further weakness towards its psycho level at 1,500.00. Alternatively, the commodity will have to return above the 1,714.35 level to open further upside towards the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high and possibly higher towards the 1,84 outlook on Gold 50 level. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its nearer term downside bias.
 

Attachments

FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
2,279 5
GOLD: Maintains Bearish Momentum, Looks To Weaken Further.

GOLD: Having violated the 1,612.10 level and continuing to hold on to its broader bearishness, the risk is for more declines to occur despite its current price hesitation. In such a case, the 1,522.55 level, its Dec 2011 low will come in as the next downside target with a break of here opening the door for further weakness towards its psycho level at 1,500.00. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower. Alternatively, the commodity will have to return above the 1,714.35 level to annul its present downside threats and then open further upside towards the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high and possibly higher towards the 1,84 outlook on Gold 50 level. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its short term downside bias.
 

Attachments

FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
2,279 5
GOLD: Bounces Off Lower Prices, Faces Further Recovery Risk

GOLD: With The commodity bounced off lower level prices during Wednesday, a third such bounces in May’2012. While this portends an upside recovery risk, as long as GOLD continues to trade and hold below its declining trendline, the broader risk remains lower. This means the commodity could return to its recent lows at the 1,527/33 levels. A violation of there will resume its broader weakness towards the 1,500.00 level. Price hesitation could occur here due to psycho level but if that level gives way expect Gold to decline further towards 1,478.05 level. On the other hand, on a break above the mentioned trendline currently at the 1,604 level and the 1,598 level, further price extension could develop towards the 1,624 level and then the 1,670.70 level. Above the latter will open up further upside risk towards the 1,700.00 level. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its medium term downside bias though attempting a recovery.
 

Attachments

FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
2,279 5
GOLD: Risk Of Further Recovery Develops (Commodity Technical Outlook)

GOLD: With GOLD halting its broader weakness to rally strongly the past week, the commodity faces the risk of further upside offensive. However, it continues to hold on to its medium term downtrend. This suggests that its present recovery could fade and turn it lower towards the 1,522/27 levels. A cut through here will call for further declines towards the 1,500.00 level. Price hesitation could occur here due to psycho level but if that level gives way expect Gold to decline further towards 1,478.05 level. On the upside, the risk is for it to recover further towards the 1,642.15 level. If this level breaks, further upside should build up towards the 1,670.70 level and possibly the 1,700 level. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its medium term downside bias though recovering.
 

Attachments

SaraRose

Junior member
14 0
Re: GOLD: Bounces Off Lower Prices, Faces Further Recovery Risk

The reason why the gold jumped on Friday divided for two: first, it reached a strong support (1525) in the weekly chart, that each time the metal touched this level it rose dozens of points. Second, the collapse of the stocks made the investors to transfer their money to instruments that considered more stable such as precious metals (although I don't think that gold is stable in the past 6 months) and this caused a sharp short-squeeze. The metal might continue to 1670 with the current momentum, but I believe that the general trend is bearish (descending triangle in the weekly chart), which means that we will see the gold under 1500 points soon.

gold0406.jpg
 

NVP

Legendary member
36,647 1,861
Re: GOLD: Bounces Off Lower Prices, Faces Further Recovery Risk

Gold is now looking more possible as a buy for the first time since February

I would prefer USD to be more bearish but against all fiat G8 generally Gold is looking stronger

N
 

FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
2,279 5
GOLD: Tumbles Off the 1,632.85 Level, Risk Builds On Key Support

GOLD: GOLD has ended its corrective recovery as it tumbled off the 1,632.85 level on Monday and continues to sell off. This development now leaves the commodity targeting 1,557.30 level, its Jun 08’2012 low where a break will drive it further lower towards its key supports located at the 1,557/27 levels. A cut through will resume its broader medium term weakness and then pave the way for further declines towards the 1,500.00 level. Price hesitation could occur here but if that level gives way, expect Gold to decline further towards 1,478.05 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative view will be the commodity to return above the 1,632.85 level thus opening the door for more upside towards the 1,670.70 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,700 level. All in all, GOLD continues to hold on to its broader medium term downside as it looks to resume that trend.
 

Attachments

FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
2,279 5
CRUDE OIL: Recovering But Vulnerable In The Medium Term

CRUDE OIL: While a recovery is now in place, Crude Oil continues to hold on to its broader medium term downtrend. This leaves the possibility of a return to the 77.28 level on the cards. A breach of here will extend further declines towards the 76.45 level followed by the 74.00 level. The alternative scenario will be for the commodity to move back above the 88.98 level. This will pave the way for a move further higher towards its psycho level at The 90.00 level. A cut through here will aim at 96.16 level and then the 100 level. All in all, Crude Oil continues to maintain its broader medium term downside bias though facing a recovery risk.
 

Attachments

rsh01

Experienced member
1,184 299
Re: CRUDE OIL: Recovering But Vulnerable In The Medium Term

Prob better in the "energy" section rather than "fx strat & systems".
 

FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
2,279 5
CRUDE OIL: Recovering But Vulnerable In The Medium Term

CRUDE OIL: While a recovery is now in place, Crude Oil continues to hold on to its broader medium term downtrend. This leaves the possibility of a return to the 77.28 level on the cards. A breach of here will extend further declines towards the 76.45 level followed by the 74.00 level. The alternative scenario will be for the commodity to move back above the 88.98 level. This will pave the way for a move further higher towards its psycho level at The 90.00 level. A cut through here will aim at 96.16 level and then the 100 level. All in all, Crude Oil continues to maintain its broader medium term downside bias though facing a recovery risk.
 

Attachments

FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
2,279 5
GOLD: Weakness Consistent With Its Broader Medium Downside Bias.

GOLD: With GOLD weak and vulnerable, further declines is likely towards the 1,546/41 levels. A cut through here will turn attention to the 1,527 level, its May 2012 low. While the 1,640/24 levels continue to hold as resistance levels, the above view remains valid. Below the 1,527 level will resume its broader medium term weakness and then pave the way for further declines towards the 1,500.00 level. Price hesitation could occur here but if that level gives way, expect Gold to decline further towards 1,478.05 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the commodity will have to break back above the 1,624.45 level to reverse its bear threats. This will set the stage for a run at the 1640.45 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,670.70 level. All in all, GOLD continues to hold on to its broader medium term downside.
 

Attachments

FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
2,279 5
GOLD: Risk Remains Higher Towards The 1,700 Level.

GOLD: With consolidation now occurring above the 1,676 level following its last week rally, GOLD faces the risk of further upside. In such a case, the 1,700.00 level will be targeted. Price hesitation is expected at this level but if taken out, expect the commodity to strengthen further towards the 1,714 level and next the 1,750 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. The alternative scenario will be for the commodity to return to the 1,640.45 level where a reversal of roles as support is expected to occur. However, if this fails, further declines will shape up towards the 1,584 level and then the 1,544.35. Below here will call for a move lower towards the 1,527.05 level. All in all, GOLD continues to hold on to its bullish tone.

 

FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
2,279 5
Commodity Technical Outlook On CRUDE OIL

CRUDE OIL: The 98.26 Level Beckons.

CRUDE OIL
: Having halted its corrective declines and turned higher, the risk is for Crude Oil to recapture the 98.26 level. As long as Crude Oil continues to hold above the 93.93/92.04 levels, there is risk of a recapture of the 98.26 level. A cut through here will call for a run at the 100.00 level followed by the 101.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for Crude Oil to break below the mentioned trendline and then target the 92.04 level. Below here will aim at the 86.82 level. This is consistent with its broader downside bias though it will have to take out the 84.05 level and the 77.70 level to resume that trend. Below here will resume its medium term weakness towards the 75.50 level. All in all, Crude Oil continues to hold on to its medium term bias.

 

Similar threads


AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock