FXTechstrategy Team: Commodity Analysis

[FXTechstrategy Team]

CRUDE OIL: Bullish In The Medium Term

CRUDE OIL: We continue to hold our bullish bias on Crude Oil as it followed through higher the past week. This now leaves the 95.00 level as the next upside target with a violation of here turning attention to the 96.15 level and possibly higher towards the 97.00 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. As long as Crude Oil remains above the 90.30 level, this view remains valid. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Support lies at the 93.63 level where a violation will call for a run the 91.50 level and then the 90.30 level. Further down, support comes in at the 89.98 level All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the upside above its key resistance at 90.30 level.

 

[CalvinLe55]

Re: CRUDE OIL: Continues To Maintain Its Upside Bias.

Crude Oil usually rises / breakouts end of Jan up into Feb/March, so likely putting in a base

but now ive wrote, it will probably tank end of Jan

There are signs indicating the recent rise will come down as I have vibrational analysis measured on Oil. I know the future forecast base on some signs that won't help it much to rise further. Perhaps it may should decline some times as early as the 23rd - 26th January. :idea:

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

CRUDE OIL: Maintains Upside Bias.

CRUDE OIL: We continue to hold our bullish bias on Crude Oil as it looks to extend its offensive in the new week. This development leaves the commodity targeting the 96.15 level on ending its present price consolidation. A violation of here will turn attention to the 97.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 98.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 94.67 level where a breach will call for a run at the 93.63 level. Further down, support comes in at the 91.50 level and then the 90.30 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Vulnerable Below Declining Trendline.

GOLD: The commodity remains biased to the downside below its declining trendline (red). This suggests further declines towards its December 2012 low at 1,625 level followed by the 1,600.00 level, its key psycho level. We expect a price hesitation to occur here if tested but if broken we could see further weakness towards the 1,582.10 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,694 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1,730 level and then the 1,750 level. All in all, GOLD remains vulnerable despite recovery attempts.

 

[corsock]

Re: GOLD: Vulnerable Below Declining Trendline.

how do you feel about centamin

 

[new_trader]

Re: GOLD: Vulnerable Below Declining Trendline.

GOLD: The commodity remains biased to the downside below its declining trendline (red). This suggests further declines towards its December 2012 low at 1,625 level followed by the 1,600.00 level, its key psycho level. We expect a price hesitation to occur here if tested but if broken we could see further weakness towards the 1,582.10 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,694 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1,730 level and then the 1,750 level. All in all, GOLD remains vulnerable despite recovery attempts.

It would be good to see Gold pull back below the 1625 level as I would like to add more to my portfolio. I'd say all the people who don't understand gold are being suckered in by the "Economic recovery" story and are selling their gold. Whilst the short term technicals indicate a pull back, the long term fundumentals for gold just keep getting better.

 

[wino59]

Re: GOLD: Vulnerable Below Declining Trendline.

It would be good to see Gold pull back below the 1625 level as I would like to add more to my portfolio. I'd say all the people who don't understand gold are being suckered in by the "Economic recovery" story and are selling their gold. Whilst the short term technicals indicate a pull back, the long term fundumentals for gold just keep getting better.

I am going to short gold once it falls below the 1580 level. If it doesn't then I will go long at 1650 level.. Right now we are in a trading range, and I think we will break to down side, but I am sitting on the sidelines until it breaks one of those two levels.

 

[new_trader]

Re: GOLD: Vulnerable Below Declining Trendline.

I am going to short gold once it falls below the 1580 level. If it doesn't then I will go long at 1650 level.. Right now we are in a trading range, and I think we will break to down side, but I am sitting on the sidelines until it breaks one of those two levels.

Did you go long @ 1650?

 

[VielGeld]

Re: GOLD: Vulnerable Below Declining Trendline.

It would be good to see Gold pull back below the 1625 level as I would like to add more to my portfolio. I'd say all the people who don't understand gold are being suckered in by the "Economic recovery" story and are selling their gold. Whilst the short term technicals indicate a pull back, the long term fundumentals for gold just keep getting better.

Hmm... Rhetorical question for the sake of discussion, if you don't mind... What if the "economic recovery story" got pumped so much it became true?

 

[libertas]

Re: GOLD: Vulnerable Below Declining Trendline.

Hmm... Rhetorical question for the sake of discussion, if you don't mind... What if the "economic recovery story" got pumped so much it became true?

Can a fish become a whale merely by words alone?

 

[VielGeld]

Re: GOLD: Vulnerable Below Declining Trendline.

Point taken.

 

[wino59]

Re: GOLD: Vulnerable Below Declining Trendline.

Did you go long @ 1650?

I can't afford Gold, so I buy sell the GLD etf... I didn't realize the numbers didn't actually match....it thought it mirrored it exactly, but I was wrong.

Anyhow... I just went short today on the GLD, bought the 166 april put options.

This was the chart I was looking at... You can see the trading range the descending triangle and the break out today on the GLD chart. I put my stop loss at 164 High end of the trading range... I know big stop loss, but I don't want to get stopped stopped out as this range can vary quite a bit.

 

[new_trader]

Re: GOLD: Vulnerable Below Declining Trendline.

I can't afford Gold, so I buy sell the GLD etf... I didn't realize the numbers didn't actually match....it thought it mirrored it exactly, but I was wrong.

Anyhow... I just went short today on the GLD, bought the 166 april put options.

This was the chart I was looking at... You can see the trading range the descending triangle and the break out today on the GLD chart. I put my stop loss at 164 High end of the trading range... I know big stop loss, but I don't want to get stopped stopped out as this range can vary quite a bit.

Physical ETF's have management fees which are usually paid by selling the underlying asset.This is probably why 1 GLD ETF share isn't exactly 1/10th ounce. If you look at the NAV of one share it is 0.096791 ounces now.

 

[daviddawson]

Re: GOLD: Vulnerable Below Declining Trendline.

Hold your no.s down guys, it will recover very soon. Think about long terms.....

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

CRUDE OIL: Halts Corrective Decline, Rallies

CRUDE OIL: With the commodity rallying to halt its corrective weakness, the risk is for Crude Oil to return to the 98.22 level.This is consistent with its broader medium term uptrend now on hold. A violation of the 98.22 level will set the stage for a run at the 99.00 level with a loss there turning attention to the 99.50 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 100.00 level. On the downside, support lies at the 94.95 level where a breach will call for a run at the 93.63 level. Further down, support comes in at the 91.50 level and then the 90.30 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the upside in the medium term though correcting.

 

[goldluvr]

Re: GOLD: Vulnerable Below Declining Trendline.

After last nights trend reversal at 9 pm ET I am long gold from 1556.0
First scale was today at 1585, my stop is now 3 pts green and will look for higher prices with a yearly goal at 1776.
Why 1776?
I have bought physical gold since the year 2000 and it has an average increase of 6% a year higher than the Jan 1 opening price.
Cheers

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Sees Further Downside Pressure

GOLD: With a follow-through lower occurring the past week, further weakness is envisaged in the new week. This development leaves GOLD vulnerable towards the 1,554.04 level. This is consistent with its broader weakness triggered from the 1,795 level. Further downside pressure now eyes the 1,530.00 level with a breach aiming at the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level. We expect a price hesitation to occur here if tested but if broken we could see further weakness towards the 1,478.05 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,600.00 level and then the 1,669 level where a break will aim at the 1,695 level. A violation of here will call for a run at the 1,730 level. All in all, GOLD remains vulnerable to the downside medium term.

 

[goldluvr]

Re: GOLD: Sees Further Downside Pressure

Seasonal direction is right on schedule. With March being a bullish month the run started a week early this year.
I believe that it was manipulated to these levels for govts' to add to thier gold reserves. I am long and safe from the cup formation on Feb 21 with stops green.
Also ,simply goal is 1776 6% from year open, this has worked for me since I bought physical in 2002.

 

[willmoss]

Re: GOLD: Vulnerable Below Declining Trendline.

I'd just like to know who is selling gold right now.

Are you telling me there are people out there who really believe that the fundamentals of the world have changed in the past year?

Someone mentioned a government conspiracy to lower the price. That made me think.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Weakens, Targets The 1,554 level.

GOLD: With a second day of downside seeing GOLD declining strongly on Thursday, further downside is likely. This has exposed the 1,554 level where a violation will aim at the 1,530.00 level followed by the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level. We expect a price hesitation to occur here if tested but if broken we could see further weakness towards the 1,478.05 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,602.00 level and then the 1,619.00 level. A turn above here will target the 1,669 level where a break will aim at the 1,695 level. All in all, GOLD remains vulnerable to the downside medium term.