Tell the truth.Who does/doesnt make consistent trading profits.R U even a net winner?

[Skill Leverage]

Google 'variance' and read more about probability theory if you do not know why this is true

 

[daniellefr]

i dont see why some peiople try and blame failure in forex trading on forex itself.

Oh, no! First of all, by far not a failure. And second, not blaiming forex at all. There are ups and downs and at the end it is up to you to make it work.

 

[daniellefr]

If you're talking consistently profitable as in, every day, then probably you are right, but when you take it to months and years, it is very possible to be very consistent.

I agree with you on months and years stats. When you look at the big picture, if you make any kind of profit you are a winner.

 

[simcom]

I was 'consistently' profitable in my first nine months of trading (said in inverted commas because I don't feel nine months is anywhere near enough time to statistically differ between a lucky run and good trading).

I stopped a few months ago because of the volatility and probably won't resume until things look to be getting back to normality again. Thankfully I am a university student and don't rely on the income, so I can afford to wait!

The main factor that helped make those first nine months profitable - I believe - was that I stuck to a rigid set of rules and tried (and mostly succeeded) in not letting my emotions get in the way.

One thing I found odd was it was invariably the case that the trades I 'thought' would turn out to be absolute disasters were the best by far, and vice versa. I guess there's no accounting for human nature!

 

[Skill Leverage]

I was 'consistently' profitable in my first nine months of trading (said in inverted commas because I don't feel nine months is anywhere near enough time to statistically differ between a lucky run and good trading).

If you were scalping or even daytrading 9 months would definitely be enough. If you're only entering trades once or twice a month, that's a different matter.

 

[simcom]

If you were scalping or even daytrading 9 months would definitely be enough. If you're only entering trades once or twice a month, that's a different matter.

It was around one trade per day. I know that that should be enough, but I suppose I don't want to fall into the trap of thinking I'm invincible

 

[Paul71]

I'd be surprised if there were more than 12 - maximum (and 12's pushing it. I don't know who these 12 are or who they are not) T2W members present or past who make consistent profits from trading. (and i'm not 1 of the 12 - yet )

We all know the theory - R:R, risk per trade, discipline, waiting, patience, following the plan etc., we all talk the talk, but when it comes down to it, i dont think anyone is meant to succeed at trading.

We can all rationalise why a trade failed or succeeded. We may adjust our entry requirements as a result, only to see the new requirements fail, and the old requirements lead to a successful trade.

The point is, gaining consistency is virtually impossible, as price is far from consistent.

Trying to trade, watching the candles is like trying to capture an unnobtainable object. It is impossible as you are always in its shadow, one step behind. Ever tried catching a fly in your hand......its next to impossible as the moment it sees your shadow, its gone......

As for R:R - use S/R as targets - sure.........But how longs a piece of string??? knowone knows until after its been unwound....

Ouch! The negativity hurts me, pal! There is a process, the process can seem random, taken from a certain view.

Day in, day out, the markets move to same tune, buyers, sellers....moving the market, the value.

The old cliches, dicipline, MM, method etc etc,...worthless, unless applied to the right reasoning.

So what is the reason? A dead cat bounce? Surely not.

 

[porph]

I'd imagine the profitable, consistent traders are busy concentrating on what they are supposed to be doing and not on this forum.

I've hit the concrete wall/paper floor after some great scalping returns which I am struggling to repeat. Im going to withdraw funds and see if that helps though im taking a break until after xmas.

 

[Mr. Charts]

"The point is, gaining consistency is virtually impossible, as price is far from consistent.

Trying to trade, watching the candles is like trying to capture an unnobtainable object. It is impossible as you are always in its shadow, one step behind. Ever tried catching a fly in your hand......its next to impossible as the moment it sees your shadow, its gone......"

I've finished trading for the day so here's my approach FWIW.


Got to disagree with that quote from the thread opener.
I gave up my profession in 1999 to day trade US stocks and I've never had a losing week. I can't even remember the last time I had a losing day.
I've got my set ups and triggers and adhere to them very strictly. They work the majority of the time.
Sometimes the way I use level 2 and T&S warns me of an impending change in direction BEFORE it appears on a chart. When - and it's not always - that happens I exit the whole position or scale out of part of it. It's a very defensive posture which means when I'm right I get out at or very close to a turning point. When I'm wrong I've still made money. Right and wrong are not really the correct words for this, it's better described as when the signal is proved correct or incorrect.
My money management is very tight and when I've got an open trade I position manage equally strictly.
But part of the reason is extreme caution. I'm just not greedy and take what the market offers and exit when it turns against me. If it turns against me as soon as I enter, I simply exit and take a small loss. On choppy days I make less than on days with one or two or three good trends in them.
However, trading US stocks means you can hunt out the stocks which are moving and not range bound even on choppy days, so you're not restricted as you are with index futures, FX pairs etc where there aren't many trading instruments.
I just take what the market offers and frequently become more cautious and trade less after making very good profits on a particular day, sometimes reducing position size to minimise any risk to profits already earned. That doesn't apply to strongly trending days.
I suppose what I do is to dampen the amplitude of potential variation both in profits and in risk and that contributes a lot to consistency. It suits my personality, it might not suit others.
I concentrate on risk, NOT reward. In fact I frequently disregard potential reward as that is unknowable, whereas you can control risk very strictly. Obviously I don't often go long with resistance nearby or short with support nearby. When I do it's for small cent gains to gain from probable bull or bear traps.
Richard

 

[Skill Leverage]

I'd imagine the profitable, consistent traders are busy concentrating on what they are supposed to be doing and not on this forum.

I've hit the concrete wall/paper floor after some great scalping returns which I am struggling to repeat. Im going to withdraw funds and see if that helps though im taking a break until after xmas.

I think this is probably true to some extent, although thankfully you do get the few successful traders who are prepared to share their knowledge and experience with the rest of us. But yeah, if you're at your computer 8 hours or more a day scalping furiously, you're unlikely to then want to spend a few hours more on here!

 

[Paul71]

Exactly.

for me to do this - you need a firm grasp of S/R.

With all the dazzling mutli-coloured indicator overlays etc. that i see posted here, usually accompnaied by a lack of consideration and understanding of S/R, and i find it hard to see how these guys can profit.

I understand S/R S&D inside out, and see it on each one of my charts, yet still struggle..........


Mind your own f'in business!

twas meant to be like an AA meeting!

What is the primary cause for price/value change on any given market?

1) SD

2) SR

Can one element survive without the other?

 

[N Rothschild]

what ****s me off no end is constantly being right in your calls yet still being able to loose money in the process

 

[mauzj]

What products does your consistent friend trade? I used to work with people who could consistently pull a few k a day out of stir and bond spreads. But a few of them also blew up a few months ago.

You definetly have to know when NOT to trade.

You do this by examining what links your losing trades.

If you realise for example that every losing trade you take are ones that are entered after 5pm then you simply don't trade after 5pm!

This is why keeping a journal of your trades or keeping track by some other means is so essential.

The guy that I was talking about that is so consistent admitted to me that he has difficulty in the afternoons. So what does he do? He simply makes money in the morning and then goes home.

One thing I greatly respected in one of Spanishs' posts was where he realised that the market was unlikely to make a decisive mood and rather than trying to get involved went off and did something else (despite his need to make money to pay for his rent - a ludicrous situation but thats another story lol)

I've lately realised that the vast majority of my trades aren't getting as far as their first target before reversing. It seems like for the last couple of months every trade I take gets up anywhere between 15 - 80 ticks/pips and then reverses on me and stops me out. Now getting up that much on a trade may sound good to some people but with my style of trading it affects my overall profitability.

So what I have done is taken action.

I've requested they put me back on the simulator at work to ride out the storm but also so I can keep my mind active and increase my experience without risking real money and judge when market conditions are better for my style of trading.

At the same time I've pulled all the money out of my personal accounts which means I have nothing in there to trade with. If I see something that looks unmissable (I am eyeing oil and waiting for a test of $41) then I have to go to the bother of transferring funds in to take it.

This stops overtrading where you keep taking all setups (even the average ones) in the hope that things will suddenly come good.

If you are in a hole, stop digging and assess the surroundings.

 

[dilesh23]

i think he trades the ftse or dax futures he didn't look too happy though the day he saw me standing near his flashy car when he came out from work that day ....prob just me though (sorry td for answering your question...probably incorectly aswell)

 

[N Rothschild]

im not a net winner having blown out a sizeable acount in my early days

 

[arabianights]

If you're doing this badly, give up

Also... Who gives a **** about consistency? It isn't important. Consistency would be worrying to me.

 

[rawrschach]

Alternatively you could trade for half a tick on a one lot with a 1.5 tick stop.

=p

 

[nunrgguy]

I'm a net winner taking a £25k account to nearly £70k over 7 years, although it's not so big now because I've spent some of it....which does p*ss me off a bit as my main goal is capital appreciation and not income and I'm well aware that every £ I spend today is tens or hundreds of £ tomorrow. However, we don't all live forever and you have to live your life a bit.

As a percentage maybe the gain doesn't sound that staggering compared to what some claim - but a gain is a gain when the statistics supposedly say that 90% lose.

The gain has come mainly from an investing or positional/trend following style rather than day trading, usually making less than 10 trades per year.

Yes, maybe ANY idiot can follow the trend in a raging bull market and make money, but you have to know why and when to get out - which I did with all of my longs last November. Now I've just got inflation to worry about...

With swing/day trading, which I've done for around 4 years, for me the jury is still out with an account that started at £3k, went up to £4k and is at the moment £3.5k, still in profit but not 100% sure if it's worth all the work. My position at the moment in the current market? I'm sure some are making money, but it's not the market for me so I'm standing aside.

I've used the time to build myself a VB database application for planning, manual backtesting, trade management (which tracks a trade series based on a strategy against what was achieved in testing), journal/chart database which I'm now starting to put to use by testing my strategies backwards and forwards before chucking any more money at them.

 

[Joey25]

The big free lunch in finance is diversification.

Run several systems/methods concurrently and they can all have the same volatility (inconsistency) and yet as a whole produce a much smoother equity curve.

Just a thought.
Joey

 

[JTrader]

The big free lunch in finance is diversification.

Run several systems/methods concurrently and they can all have the same volatility (inconsistency) and yet as a whole produce a much smoother equity curve.

Just a thought.
Joey

I diasagree.