Technical Outlook with Charts | zForex

[Z Forex]

+XAUUSD Update

Gold is trading around $4,275, down roughly 1.7% on the day, as hawkish Fed repricing continues to outweigh safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions.

Hotter US inflation and Treasury yields pushing toward 5% have increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, even as oil and geopolitical risks remain elevated.

Technically, gold is trading below the 50-day SMA with momentum still weak. $4,220 is the key near-term support, while a break below that area could expose deeper downside. On the upside, gold would need to recover above roughly $4,400–4,500 to improve the short-term structure.

 

[Z Forex]

Dollar Strengthens as Markets Brace for Fed (09.15.2026)​

Central bank policy takes center stage as investors prepare for a series of major rate decisions this week.

A 25bp Fed hike on Wednesday is now priced at around 92%, with oil above $100 and the US 10-year yield approaching 5%, reinforcing inflation concerns. The dollar strengthened, pushing the euro toward $1.15 and the yen toward 155.

The ECB has already hiked and at least one more increase is priced this year. The BoE is expected to hold Thursday in a close decision, while the BOJ could raise rates to 1.25% Friday, the highest since April 1995.

Chinese fixed-asset investment fell 7.2%, retail sales growth slowed to 0.4%, and unemployment rose to 5.3%. Industrial output improved to 5.2%, while the decline in house prices eased to 3%, leaving pressure on Beijing to add support as growth risks missing the 4.5%–5.0% target again.

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Economic Calendar​

Euro Slips Toward $1.15​

The euro weakened toward $1.15, its lowest since mid-August, as the dollar remained firm ahead of Wednesday’s expected Fed rate hike. Oil above $100 amid escalating Gulf tensions added to inflation concerns and pressured bond markets.

Following last week’s rate increase, the ECB signaled further tightening, with markets expecting at least one more hike this year. Attention now turns to the Fed on Wednesday, BoE on Thursday and BoJ on Friday, with the BoJ widely expected to raise rates.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1560 while the support starts from 1.1530.

Gold Holds Near Five-Week Low​

Gold traded around $4,300 per ounce, remaining near a five-week low as rising oil prices strengthened expectations for tighter Fed policy. Markets now price roughly a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday.

Continued disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine energy attacks kept oil elevated. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, adding pressure on gold. The Bank of Japan is also widely expected to raise rates on Friday.

First resistance is seen at $4350, with initial support near $4260.

Yen Eases Toward 155​

The Japanese yen weakened toward 155 per dollar, extending losses for a second session as the dollar strengthened ahead of an expected Fed rate hike. Higher oil prices also pressured Japan’s energy-dependent economy.

Still, the yen remained near seven-month highs amid expectations for tighter BoJ policy and carry-trade unwinding. The BoJ is widely expected to raise rates to 1.25% on Friday, the highest since April 1995, with markets also watching for signals of another hike this year.

First resistance is seen at 155.00, with initial support near 153.80.

Pound Falls Below $1.35​

The British pound fell below $1.35, its weakest since mid-August, as the dollar strengthened ahead of Wednesday’s expected Fed rate hike. The BoE is expected to hold rates at 3.75% on Thursday, although rising oil prices have increased inflation concerns.

Goldman Sachs expects a 25-basis-point hike in November, supported by persistent inflation and resilient UK growth. Markets are pricing in four BoE hikes by mid-2027, while Governor Andrew Bailey remains cautious about near-term tightening.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3530, with support around 1.3450.

Silver Holds Near Five-Week Low​

Silver traded near $63 per ounce, close to a five-week low as elevated oil prices reinforced expectations for tighter Fed policy. Markets now price around a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday.

Continued disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline kept energy prices elevated, while the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, adding pressure on silver. The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise rates on Friday amid persistent inflation risks.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $64.80, while support is located around $62,70.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent approached $107 a barrel as supply concerns persisted. Saudi Arabia’s drone-damaged East-West pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz, remained closed with no restart date, while Iran-Gulf talks over the strait were shelved. Tehran reported a supertanker explosion after it hit mines in a prohibited area and said talks with the US would not resume until its demands were met.

Zelenskyy, meanwhile, offered to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure if Russia reciprocated, contradicting Trump’s claim that both sides had already agreed.

Resistance is seen at 110.00, while the nearest support stands at 107.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index fell 0.82%, to 29,088. It is down 3.03% over four weeks but remains 19.83% higher over 12 months. Trading Economics models and analyst estimates project 28,740 by quarter-end and 26,934 in one year.

Resistance stands at 29,250, while the nearest support is located at 28,850.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan held near 6.71 per dollar, retreating from a three-year-plus high as Chinese data sent mixed signals. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January–August, the sharpest drop for the period since January–April 2020; retail sales growth slowed to a three-month low of 0.4%, and unemployment rose to a five-month high of 5.3% from 5.2%.

Better news came from house prices, down 3% annually, the smallest fall since December 2025, while industrial output growth accelerated to 5.2% from 4.5%. Fiscal support is increasing after a prolonged decline in public spending, but more stimulus may be needed as growth risks missing the 4.5%–5.0% target for a second straight quarter.

Resistance stands at 6.7170 while the nearest support is located at 6.7000.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded at $77,814, down 0.44%. It has fallen 23.86% over four weeks and 33.40% over 12 months. Trading Economics models and analyst expectations point to $77,811 by quarter-end and $87,311 in one year.

First resistance is seen at 78,500, with initial support near 75.500.

 

[Z Forex]

Gold and Silver Rebounds Ahead of Fed (09.16.2026)​

The Fed is expected to raise rates 25bp Wednesday, its first hike in roughly three years, as $100-plus oil keeps inflation pressure alive. The BoE is likely to hold Thursday, while markets put the chance of a BoJ hike Friday near 80%. The ECB has already moved, with at least one more hike priced this year.

Brent slipped below $108 after US crude inventories unexpectedly jumped 7.14 million barrels, but Gulf supply disruptions continue to support prices. Saudi loadings remain suspended at Yanbu, while Libya has halted two fields and a pumping station.

Fed expectations have strengthened the dollar, sending the euro toward $1.15, its lowest since mid-August, and pushing the yen beyond 155. For the yen, Friday’s potential BoJ hike could become the next major test.

China’s fixed-asset investment fell 7.2%, retail sales growth slowed to 0.4%, and unemployment rose to 5.3%. Industrial production moved the other way, accelerating to 5.2%, leaving pressure on Beijing to do more as growth risks missing its 4.5%-5.0% target.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Weakens Toward $1.15​

The Euro dropped toward $1.15, reaching its lowest level since mid-August, as a resilient U.S. Dollar pressured major currencies ahead of an anticipated Federal Reserve rate increase. Persistent Gulf conflict has kept crude oil well above $100 per barrel, fueling inflation concerns and triggering sell-offs in long-dated sovereign debt.

Following the European Central Bank's recent rate hike, focus now shifts to key central bank decisions, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1560 while the support starts from 1.1530.

Gold Rebounds Above $4,300​

Gold reclaimed $4,300 an ounce on Wednesday, halting a two-day decline as rallies in crude oil and Treasury yields cooled before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. Crude eased from multi-month highs following an unexpected U.S. inventory build, though Middle East supply concerns limited losses.

Investors remain focused on central bank decisions, with the Fed widely anticipated to deliver a 25 basis point rate increase, while the Bank of Japan eyes a hike and the Bank of England prepares to hold rates steady.

First resistance is seen at $4350, with initial support near $4260.

Yen Falls Past 155 Mark​

The Japanese Yen weakened past 155 per dollar on Wednesday, dropping for a third consecutive session as a firmer Dollar and rising oil import costs pressured the currency.

Despite the slide, losses were capped by expectations of impending Bank of Japan rate increases, backed by strong August export data driven by AI chip demand. Markets price an 80% probability of a BoJ hike this Friday, with another move expected by January.

First resistance is seen at 156.00, with initial support near 153.80.

GBP/USD Drops Below $1.35​

The British Pound fell below $1.35, touching its lowest level since early August. Stronger U.S. Dollar demand ahead of an expected Federal Reserve rate hike pressured the currency, while the Bank of England is anticipated to maintain rates at 3.75% on Thursday.

Although recent data highlighted the UK's fastest economic expansion in 18 months, surging oil prices amid Middle East conflict complicate the inflation outlook, keeping market expectations aligned for a potential November rate increase.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3530, with support around 1.3450.

Silver Extends Rally Past $64​

Silver advanced above $64 an ounce on Wednesday, gaining for a second consecutive session as momentum in oil prices and bond yields cooled ahead of key central bank decisions. Crude pulled back from multi-month highs following an unexpected U.S. inventory surplus, though ongoing Middle East disruptions limited downside.

Meanwhile, global bond yields stabilized with markets fully pricing a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike to curb inflation, while anticipating tightening from the Bank of Japan and a hold from the Bank of England.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $64.80, while support is located around $62,70.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent slipped below $108 a barrel, pulling back from four-month highs after an unexpected surge in US crude inventories challenged the recent upward move. API data showed stocks rising by 7.14 million barrels last week, reversing the previous 300,000-barrel draw and defying expectations for another decline.

Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port has kept oil loadings suspended following the shutdown of the key East-West pipeline, with no clear restart date as Houthi fighters renewed attacks on the kingdom. Libya’s national oil company also halted two fields and a pumping station because of protests, although nationwide production held near 1.4 million barrels per day. Geopolitical tensions extended beyond the Gulf, with Zelenskyy offering to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure if Moscow does the same, contradicting Trump’s claim that both sides had already agreed to stop such strikes.

Resistance is seen at 110.00, while the nearest support stands at 107.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded at 29,010, down 0.65%, from the previous close. The index has now fallen 3.29% over the past month, although it remains 19.76% higher over the past year.

Trading Economics’ global macro models and analyst projections put the index at 28,740 by quarter-end and 26,934 within one year.

Resistance stands at 29,500, while the nearest support is located at 28,850.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan traded around 6.71 per dollar as Chinese data pointed in different directions. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January-August, retail sales growth slowed to 0.4%, and unemployment rose to 5.3%.

Industrial output, however, accelerated to 5.2% from 4.5%, while house prices recorded their smallest annual decline since December 2025. Calls for further stimulus persist as growth risks missing the official 4.5%-5.0% target.

Resistance stands at 6.7170 while the nearest support is located at 6.7000.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded at $77,814, down 0.44%, from the previous session. The latest decline adds to a difficult stretch for the cryptocurrency, which has lost 23.86% over the past four weeks and 33.40% over the past 12 months.

Trading Economics’ global macro models and analyst expectations place Bitcoin at around $77,811 by quarter-end and $87,311 in one year.

First resistance is seen at 78,500, with initial support near 75.500.