Dollar Strengthens as Markets Brace for Fed (09.15.2026)
Central bank policy takes center stage as investors prepare for a series of major rate decisions this week.
A 25bp Fed hike on Wednesday is now priced at around 92%, with oil above $100 and the US 10-year yield approaching 5%, reinforcing inflation concerns. The dollar strengthened, pushing the euro toward $1.15 and the yen toward 155.
The ECB has already hiked and at least one more increase is priced this year. The BoE is expected to hold Thursday in a close decision, while the BOJ could raise rates to 1.25% Friday, the highest since April 1995.
Chinese fixed-asset investment fell 7.2%, retail sales growth slowed to 0.4%, and unemployment rose to 5.3%. Industrial output improved to 5.2%, while the decline in house prices eased to 3%, leaving pressure on Beijing to add support as growth risks missing the 4.5%–5.0% target again.
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Economic Calendar
Euro Slips Toward $1.15
The euro weakened toward $1.15, its lowest since mid-August, as the dollar remained firm ahead of Wednesday’s expected Fed rate hike. Oil above $100 amid escalating Gulf tensions added to inflation concerns and pressured bond markets.
Following last week’s rate increase, the ECB signaled further tightening, with markets expecting at least one more hike this year. Attention now turns to the Fed on Wednesday, BoE on Thursday and BoJ on Friday, with the BoJ widely expected to raise rates.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1560 while the support starts from 1.1530.
Gold Holds Near Five-Week Low
Gold traded around $4,300 per ounce, remaining near a five-week low as rising oil prices strengthened expectations for tighter Fed policy. Markets now price roughly a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday.
Continued disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine energy attacks kept oil elevated. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, adding pressure on gold. The Bank of Japan is also widely expected to raise rates on Friday.
First resistance is seen at $4350, with initial support near $4260.
Yen Eases Toward 155
The Japanese yen weakened toward 155 per dollar, extending losses for a second session as the dollar strengthened ahead of an expected Fed rate hike. Higher oil prices also pressured Japan’s energy-dependent economy.
Still, the yen remained near seven-month highs amid expectations for tighter BoJ policy and carry-trade unwinding. The BoJ is widely expected to raise rates to 1.25% on Friday, the highest since April 1995, with markets also watching for signals of another hike this year.
First resistance is seen at 155.00, with initial support near 153.80.
Pound Falls Below $1.35
The British pound fell below $1.35, its weakest since mid-August, as the dollar strengthened ahead of Wednesday’s expected Fed rate hike. The BoE is expected to hold rates at 3.75% on Thursday, although rising oil prices have increased inflation concerns.
Goldman Sachs expects a 25-basis-point hike in November, supported by persistent inflation and resilient UK growth. Markets are pricing in four BoE hikes by mid-2027, while Governor Andrew Bailey remains cautious about near-term tightening.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3530, with support around 1.3450.
Silver Holds Near Five-Week Low
Silver traded near $63 per ounce, close to a five-week low as elevated oil prices reinforced expectations for tighter Fed policy. Markets now price around a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday.
Continued disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline kept energy prices elevated, while the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, adding pressure on silver. The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise rates on Friday amid persistent inflation risks.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $64.80, while support is located around $62,70.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent approached $107 a barrel as supply concerns persisted. Saudi Arabia’s drone-damaged East-West pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz, remained closed with no restart date, while Iran-Gulf talks over the strait were shelved. Tehran reported a supertanker explosion after it hit mines in a prohibited area and said talks with the US would not resume until its demands were met.
Zelenskyy, meanwhile, offered to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure if Russia reciprocated, contradicting Trump’s claim that both sides had already agreed.
Resistance is seen at 110.00, while the nearest support stands at 107.00.
Nasdaq 100
The US 100 Tech Index fell 0.82%, to 29,088. It is down 3.03% over four weeks but remains 19.83% higher over 12 months. Trading Economics models and analyst estimates project 28,740 by quarter-end and 26,934 in one year.
Resistance stands at 29,250, while the nearest support is located at 28,850.
Offshore Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)
The offshore yuan held near 6.71 per dollar, retreating from a three-year-plus high as Chinese data sent mixed signals. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January–August, the sharpest drop for the period since January–April 2020; retail sales growth slowed to a three-month low of 0.4%, and unemployment rose to a five-month high of 5.3% from 5.2%.
Better news came from house prices, down 3% annually, the smallest fall since December 2025, while industrial output growth accelerated to 5.2% from 4.5%. Fiscal support is increasing after a prolonged decline in public spending, but more stimulus may be needed as growth risks missing the 4.5%–5.0% target for a second straight quarter.
Resistance stands at 6.7170 while the nearest support is located at 6.7000.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin traded at $77,814, down 0.44%. It has fallen 23.86% over four weeks and 33.40% over 12 months. Trading Economics models and analyst expectations point to $77,811 by quarter-end and $87,311 in one year.
First resistance is seen at 78,500, with initial support near 75.500.
