Technical Outlook with Charts | zForex

[Z Forex]

Weaker U.S. Jobs Report Lifts Markets (07.03.2026)​

A weak US jobs report changed expectations for Federal Reserve policy, reducing the perceived likelihood of another rate hike this year.

The softer dollar supported gold, which climbed back above $4,000 after touching an eight-month low, while the euro recovered modestly but remained capped below key technical resistance. The yen stayed in focus as intervention speculation intensified following its slide to multi-decade lows.

Oil prices remained subdued as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to normalize and US-Iran negotiations progressed, supporting expectations of improving global supply. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have largely restored crude exports, keeping pressure on Brent despite ongoing geopolitical discussions.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Ticks Above 1.1400​

EUR/USD nudged above 1.1400 but remains locked within its weekly range, failing to test the 1.1435 resistance ceiling. The dollar has given back minor recent gains as market participants adopted a cautious posture ahead of the impending Nonfarm Payrolls print.

From a technical standpoint, the Euro maintains a bearish bias as long as it trades below the trendline resistance near 1.1550.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1460 while the support starts from 1.1380.

Gold Gains on Weak Jobs Data​

Gold climbed toward $4,200 on Friday after weak US jobs data reduced Fed rate hike expectations. June payrolls rose just 57,000, well below the 110,000 forecast, while unemployment held at 4.2%.

September hike odds fell to about 50% from 67%, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation expectations were easing. Lower oil prices and improving US-Iran talks, which supported shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, also lifted gold.

First resistance is seen at $4195, with initial support near $4120.

Yen Consolidates Near 161​

The Japanese yen stabilized around 161 per dollar on Friday, consolidating after gaining nearly 1% in the previous session. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reaffirmed that authorities stand ready to step into the market at any moment to defend the currency.

Her comments intensified intervention speculation, with market participants eyeing the thin liquidity over the U.S. holiday weekend as an ideal window for official action. Katayama added that Japan and the United States maintain close dialogue regarding foreign exchange policy.

Initial resistance stands at 162.70, while the first support is at 161.00.

Pound Hits Two-Week High​

The British pound advanced toward $1.34, reaching its strongest valuation in two weeks as the U.S. dollar faced downward pressure. The dollar was weighed down by a significantly weaker jobs report and improving global risk appetite, spurred by encouraging developments in indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations.

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs last month, missing forecasts, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% due to shrinking labor force participation.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3390, with support around 1.3250.

Silver Rises Past $61​

Silver climbed above $61 per ounce on Friday, extending recent gains after a disappointing U.S. employment report prompted market participants to scale back Federal Reserve interest rate hike forecasts. The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, marking the weakest monthly expansion in four months and falling significantly short of the 110,000-consensus estimate.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held flat at 4.2%. This weak data follows downbeat private-sector payroll figures released on Wednesday, which similarly missed market expectations.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $63.60, while support is located around $60.10.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude held around $72 per barrel, close to levels seen before the Middle East conflict began in late February.

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover as US-Iran negotiations progressed. Saudi Arabia's crude exports have returned to roughly 90% of pre-war volumes, while the UAE has fully restored exports through a combination of Hormuz shipments and its bypass pipeline, supporting a gradual normalization in regional supply.

Resistance is seen at 76.00, while the nearest support stands at 69.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The NAS100 traded below 30,000 as technology shares remained under pressure despite softer US labor data.

While easing rate expectations offered some support, concerns over AI valuations and profit-taking continued to limit upside, leaving the index near key technical levels.

Resistance stands at 30,500, while the nearest support is located at 29,450.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near $61,289, down 0.31% on the day. The cryptocurrency has declined 3.88% over the past four weeks and remains 43.27% below its level a year ago.

Longer-term projections continue to point to $60,504 by quarter-end and $68,030 over the next 12 months.

First resistance is seen at 62,600, with initial support near 58,800.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.78 per dollar after recovering from the previous session.

However, concerns over China's economic outlook remained, with the private Manufacturing PMI slipping to 51.7 in June from 51.8 in May, its lowest reading in three months.

Resistance stands at 6.8150 while the nearest support is located at 6.7650.

 

[Z Forex]

XAUUSD Holds a Cautious Bullish Bias​

Gold is getting support from weaker US jobs data, lower Fed tightening expectations, and renewed geopolitical risks. The NFP miss pushed the dollar and yields lower, which is positive for gold.

Safe-haven demand is also still active due to Iran, Hormuz, and Russia-Ukraine headlines. But the move is not a clean breakout yet, because inflation risks and policy uncertainty are still limiting the downside in yields.

Technically, gold looks better than before. MACD has turned bullish, RSI near 46 shows improving momentum, and price is holding above the post-NFP rebound area. Still, XAUUSD remains below the 50-day SMA, so confirmation is not complete yet.

For now, staying above 4,100 keeps buyers in the game. A move above 4,200 could support a recovery toward 4,350 and 4,450. If gold falls back below 4,100, the setup may weaken again.

XAGUSD Extends Rebound​

Silver is moving higher after weak US jobs data pressured the dollar and reduced Fed tightening expectations. This helped precious metals recover, with XAGUSD pushing above the $62 area.

The short-term momentum looks strong, but the move is now close to the top of the recent range. That means profit-taking risk can increase if buyers fail to hold above $62.

For now, $62.61 is the first resistance, followed by $62.80 and $62.91. On the downside, $62.31, $62.21, and $62.01 are the key support levels. A hold above $62 keeps the rebound alive, while a break below it could slow the bullish move.

 

[Z Forex]

A Softer Dollar Stabilizes Markets (07.06.2026)​

U.S. equity futures climbed on Monday as market participants returned from an extended holiday weekend, extending a rally that pushed the Dow toward historic highs near 53,000. While semiconductor stocks showed underlying weakness, capital rotated aggressively into healthcare, financials, and industrials, driving those sectors to new peaks.

Market focus is now shifting toward the upcoming Federal Reserve June meeting minutes, with investors weighing potential rate trajectories against cooling inflation anxieties, which were aided by recovering crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield drifted down to 4.47%, and the dollar index remained pinned below 101. This softness follows June’s disappointing 57,000 nonfarm payroll print, which missed the 110,000 forecast and forced traders to scale back September rate hike probabilities.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield hovered near 2.79%, holding close to its highest mark since 1996. JGB selling persisted after Tokyo unveiled a massive ¥370 trillion growth initiative through 2040 that calls for central bank backing, while a heavily depreciated yen continues to exert structural upward pressure on domestic yields by keeping Bank of Japan rate hikes firmly on the table.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Clarifies Above $1.14​

The euro finished the week above $1.14, gaining 0.5% as disappointing U.S. payroll figures dragged down the dollar. However, upside momentum was capped by cooling Eurozone inflation and dovish rhetoric from Christine Lagarde, which lowered the probability of a third ECB rate hike.

June headline inflation slowed to 2.8% and core inflation hit 2.4%, both missing forecasts. Lagarde highlighted receding risks from falling energy prices following the U.S.-Iran peace agreement.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1460 while the support starts from 1.1380.

Gold Holds Near $4,170​

Gold stabilized near $4,170 per ounce on Monday, maintaining last week's gains as soft U.S. employment data and retreating crude prices reduced Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.

Oil prices dipped amid recovering flows through the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+ supply developments, alleviating the inflation concerns that previously burdened the metal. Following June's weak 57,000 payroll print, CME FedWatch data showed September rate hike probabilities dropping to 50% from 66%.

First resistance is seen at $4200, with initial support near $4120.

Yen Slides Back to 162​

The Japanese yen slipped toward 162 per dollar on Monday, reversing half of its July 2 gains as Tokyo held off on actual market intervention despite persistent warnings. Market participants remain doubtful that official action will offer sustainable relief.

While speculation grows that authorities might abandon advanced warning signals to shock speculative shorts, the currency found minor structural support from weak U.S. employment data and resulting lower Fed rate hike expectations.

Initial resistance stands at 162.70, while the first support is at 161.00.

Pound Holds Near $1.335​

The British pound held near $1.335, posting a 1% weekly gain as weak US jobs data weighed on the dollar. Gains were capped by the Bank of England's dovish outlook, with Governor Andrew Bailey citing slower growth and delaying rate cuts.

Meanwhile, Andy Burnham's commitment to fiscal discipline ahead of his expected July premiership supported market confidence.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3390, with support around 1.3250.

Silver Holds Above $62​

Silver traded above $62 an ounce Monday, sustaining previous gains as weak U.S. labor data and retreating crude prices pared Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.

Oil prices fell on recovering Strait of Hormuz flows and OPEC+ supply concerns, soothing inflation anxieties. June’s soft 57,000 payroll additions missed the 110,000 forecast, trimming September hike odds to 50%.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $63.60, while support is located around $60.10.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude traded below $72 a barrel Monday, hovering near multi-month lows as Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalized and OPEC+ confirmed a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day.

Growing supply confidence, underscored by recovering Saudi exports and restored UAE shipments, helped ease regional supply disruption anxieties.

Resistance is seen at 74.00, while the nearest support stands at 70.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq-100 hovered near $29,800, buoyed by soft U.S. labor data that mitigated interest rate fears and stimulated technology stocks. Technical sentiment remains neutral-to-bullish, with a sustained breach above $30,000 targeting $30,600, while failure risks a consolidation pullback toward key support at $29,200.

Resistance stands at 30,000, while the nearest support is located at 29,150.

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan softened to 6.78 per dollar on Monday as traders positioned ahead of crucial domestic inflation data. Recent economic metrics signaled a steady close to the second quarter, aided by easing trade disruptions.

While services growth decelerated slightly, manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities showed resilience, beating consensus forecasts and indicating stable underlying economic momentum.

Resistance stands at 6.8150 while the nearest support is located at 6.7650.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin stabilized near $63,750, recovering from a $58,000 low due to legislative optimism, substantial ETF inflows, and macro risk-on sentiment.

While technical indicators lean neutral-to-bullish, heavy overhead resistance near $64,000 and repeated failed breakouts suggest upside momentum is slowing, likely pointing toward a period of near-term consolidation.

First resistance is seen at 64,500, with initial support near 60,900.

 

[Z Forex]

Fed Minutes are in Focus as Dollar Stabilizes (07.07.2026)​

US stock futures ticked down on Tuesday following a historic session that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average close above 53,000 for the first time. The post-holiday technology rally, propelled by heavyweights like Tesla and Meta, lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. However, after-hours trading saw Rivian slide over 9% due to a sizable stock offering, while Samsung fell in Seoul despite registering strong AI-driven profits.

In the fixed-income market, the 10-year Treasury yield consolidated near 4.48%. Investors are closely parsing macro data, including upcoming trade balance figures and the June Federal Reserve meeting minutes.

Disappointing June payroll growth, alongside downward revisions, lowered the implied probability of a September rate hike to approximately 50%, down from two-thirds earlier, despite resilient ISM Services employment figures.

The dollar index remained soft below 101, pressured by the cooling interest rate outlook. Despite this near-term moderation, the dollar continues to hover near forty-year highs against the yen. Beneath the surface, broader institutional conviction in the U.S. currency remains strong. Bullish dollar positioning among traders has reached an eleven-year peak near $40 billion, driven by expectations that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will sustain an elevated rate environment.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Balances Mixed Signals​

The euro hovered near $1.14 as investors digested conflicting economic data from the Eurozone. While German factory orders outperformed expectations with a 1.9% expansion, retail sales growth disappointed at 0.2%, and producer inflation climbed to 5.9%.

Last week's 0.5% advance against the dollar, sparked by soft U.S. labor figures, faced resistance from dovish ECB rhetoric. Markets are pricing in just a single 25-basis-point rate hike this year, even as Berlin finalized a €555.4 billion budget for 2027.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1460 while the support starts from 1.1400.

Gold Softens Below $4,130​

Gold edged lower below $4,130 an ounce on Tuesday, though it retained the bulk of last week's gains as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve's June minutes. Disappointing June labor data lowered September rate hike expectations to roughly 50%.

Falling oil prices, pulled down by stabilizing Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and expanded OPEC+ production targets, helped anchor market sentiment and limit significant downside for the precious metal.

First resistance is seen at $4200, with initial support near $4080.

Yen Lags Near 162​

The yen hovered near 162 per dollar on Tuesday, remaining pinned close to its lowest level in forty years as traders continued selling the currency amid absent Bank of Japan intervention. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama restated Japan's readiness to intervene alongside Washington, though market participants question the long-term effectiveness of such actions.

Additional pressure stems from fiscal expansion anxieties and a sluggish policy normalization pace, even as mixed domestic data revealed rising wages but falling household spending.

Initial resistance stands at 162.70, while the first support is at 161.00.

Pound Eases as Dollar Rebounds​

The pound retreated to $1.339, ending a seven-day winning streak as the dollar staged a recovery from its recent employment-driven selloff. While sterling benefited from a 1.1% weekly advance as Federal Reserve rate expectations cooled, sliding crude prices have simultaneously lowered tightening pressure on the Bank of England, with Andrew Bailey affirming a steady path toward inflation targets.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3430, with support around 1.3330.

Silver Dips Below $61.50​

Silver fell below $61.50 an ounce on Tuesday, holding most of its prior weekly gains as market participants awaited the Federal Reserve's June minutes. Disappointing labor data lowered September rate hike expectations to near 50%.

Falling crude prices, driven by normalizing Strait of Hormuz logistics and heightened OPEC+ production targets provided underlying structural support for the metal.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $63.20, while support is located around $60.10.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude stabilized above $72 a barrel, hovering near a four-month low as widening supply anxieties persisted. Downward pressure intensified following the normalization of Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic, alongside OPEC+'s weekend strategy to lift production targets.

In response to this rising output, Saudi Aramco reduced its Arab Light price for Asian buyers by $11, moving to a $1.50 discount.

Resistance is seen at 74.00, while the nearest support stands at 70.50

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 continues its upward trajectory, finding solid support near $29,500 as buyers aim for the $30,200 to $30,500 zone. Despite recent sideways consolidation, the index maintains a bullish pattern of higher lows.

Persistent dip-buying and evolving Federal Reserve interest rate expectations continue to underpin overall technology sector momentum.

Resistance stands at 30,000, while the nearest support is located at 29,150.

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

USDCNH traded near 6.7900 as the offshore yuan showed resilience against minor US dollar softening. China's currency drew support from structural US debt anxieties and steady PBoC liquidity management.

Technical momentum leans slightly bearish as traders adjust positions ahead of Federal Reserve policy cues.

Resistance stands at 6.8150 while the nearest support is located at 6.7650.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin held within a $63,500 to $64,000 range, consolidating as strong institutional ETF inflows countered ongoing leverage-driven liquidation pressure.

The cryptocurrency maintains a neutral technical bias with its 14-day RSI in the mid-50s to low-60s, keeping a total market cap near $1.3 trillion. Immediate support rests at $61,000, while resistance clusters near $64,500.

First resistance is seen at 64,500, with initial support near 61,300.