Technical Outlook with Charts | zForex

[Z Forex]

Weaker U.S. Jobs Report Lifts Markets (07.03.2026)​

A weak US jobs report changed expectations for Federal Reserve policy, reducing the perceived likelihood of another rate hike this year.

The softer dollar supported gold, which climbed back above $4,000 after touching an eight-month low, while the euro recovered modestly but remained capped below key technical resistance. The yen stayed in focus as intervention speculation intensified following its slide to multi-decade lows.

Oil prices remained subdued as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to normalize and US-Iran negotiations progressed, supporting expectations of improving global supply. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have largely restored crude exports, keeping pressure on Brent despite ongoing geopolitical discussions.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Ticks Above 1.1400​

EUR/USD nudged above 1.1400 but remains locked within its weekly range, failing to test the 1.1435 resistance ceiling. The dollar has given back minor recent gains as market participants adopted a cautious posture ahead of the impending Nonfarm Payrolls print.

From a technical standpoint, the Euro maintains a bearish bias as long as it trades below the trendline resistance near 1.1550.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1460 while the support starts from 1.1380.

Gold Gains on Weak Jobs Data​

Gold climbed toward $4,200 on Friday after weak US jobs data reduced Fed rate hike expectations. June payrolls rose just 57,000, well below the 110,000 forecast, while unemployment held at 4.2%.

September hike odds fell to about 50% from 67%, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation expectations were easing. Lower oil prices and improving US-Iran talks, which supported shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, also lifted gold.

First resistance is seen at $4195, with initial support near $4120.

Yen Consolidates Near 161​

The Japanese yen stabilized around 161 per dollar on Friday, consolidating after gaining nearly 1% in the previous session. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reaffirmed that authorities stand ready to step into the market at any moment to defend the currency.

Her comments intensified intervention speculation, with market participants eyeing the thin liquidity over the U.S. holiday weekend as an ideal window for official action. Katayama added that Japan and the United States maintain close dialogue regarding foreign exchange policy.

Initial resistance stands at 162.70, while the first support is at 161.00.

Pound Hits Two-Week High​

The British pound advanced toward $1.34, reaching its strongest valuation in two weeks as the U.S. dollar faced downward pressure. The dollar was weighed down by a significantly weaker jobs report and improving global risk appetite, spurred by encouraging developments in indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations.

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs last month, missing forecasts, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% due to shrinking labor force participation.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3390, with support around 1.3250.

Silver Rises Past $61​

Silver climbed above $61 per ounce on Friday, extending recent gains after a disappointing U.S. employment report prompted market participants to scale back Federal Reserve interest rate hike forecasts. The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, marking the weakest monthly expansion in four months and falling significantly short of the 110,000-consensus estimate.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held flat at 4.2%. This weak data follows downbeat private-sector payroll figures released on Wednesday, which similarly missed market expectations.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $63.60, while support is located around $60.10.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude held around $72 per barrel, close to levels seen before the Middle East conflict began in late February.

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover as US-Iran negotiations progressed. Saudi Arabia's crude exports have returned to roughly 90% of pre-war volumes, while the UAE has fully restored exports through a combination of Hormuz shipments and its bypass pipeline, supporting a gradual normalization in regional supply.

Resistance is seen at 76.00, while the nearest support stands at 69.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The NAS100 traded below 30,000 as technology shares remained under pressure despite softer US labor data.

While easing rate expectations offered some support, concerns over AI valuations and profit-taking continued to limit upside, leaving the index near key technical levels.

Resistance stands at 30,500, while the nearest support is located at 29,450.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near $61,289, down 0.31% on the day. The cryptocurrency has declined 3.88% over the past four weeks and remains 43.27% below its level a year ago.

Longer-term projections continue to point to $60,504 by quarter-end and $68,030 over the next 12 months.

First resistance is seen at 62,600, with initial support near 58,800.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.78 per dollar after recovering from the previous session.

However, concerns over China's economic outlook remained, with the private Manufacturing PMI slipping to 51.7 in June from 51.8 in May, its lowest reading in three months.

Resistance stands at 6.8150 while the nearest support is located at 6.7650.

 

[Z Forex]

XAUUSD Holds a Cautious Bullish Bias​

Gold is getting support from weaker US jobs data, lower Fed tightening expectations, and renewed geopolitical risks. The NFP miss pushed the dollar and yields lower, which is positive for gold.

Safe-haven demand is also still active due to Iran, Hormuz, and Russia-Ukraine headlines. But the move is not a clean breakout yet, because inflation risks and policy uncertainty are still limiting the downside in yields.

Technically, gold looks better than before. MACD has turned bullish, RSI near 46 shows improving momentum, and price is holding above the post-NFP rebound area. Still, XAUUSD remains below the 50-day SMA, so confirmation is not complete yet.

For now, staying above 4,100 keeps buyers in the game. A move above 4,200 could support a recovery toward 4,350 and 4,450. If gold falls back below 4,100, the setup may weaken again.

XAGUSD Extends Rebound​

Silver is moving higher after weak US jobs data pressured the dollar and reduced Fed tightening expectations. This helped precious metals recover, with XAGUSD pushing above the $62 area.

The short-term momentum looks strong, but the move is now close to the top of the recent range. That means profit-taking risk can increase if buyers fail to hold above $62.

For now, $62.61 is the first resistance, followed by $62.80 and $62.91. On the downside, $62.31, $62.21, and $62.01 are the key support levels. A hold above $62 keeps the rebound alive, while a break below it could slow the bullish move.