Swing Trading Value Stocks

burnout

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Hello, this is a journal of my North American stock trades (I'm Canadian, eh).

I've been successfully unemployed since June of 2018 and living off my stock trades since Dec of that same year. It took me quite a while to weed through my trading ideas/styles and fully refine my current system but now I believe I finally have it solved! I suppose time will tell if this is still just beginners luck or not.

1st Position opened on 18 Dec 2018, so it has been 4.5 years now. After logging all my trade data and using Excel's XIRR function, I have averaged 30.15% per year since my journey has began (I like using XIRR because it is a money-weighted return formula, so my living expense withdrawals won't bugger up the result).

PnL chart of all my realized trade gains/losses + dividends received (the very last plotted point is the unrealized gain/loss standing of all my currently open positions, as of yesterdays close):
PnL 21 June 2023.jpg

Current Open Swing Trade Positions (in Yahoo Finance ticker format):
BTE.to, OBE.to, PHX.to, SGY.to, SU.to, VET.to
BTU, CUZ, HAFC, HTBK, IIPR, INDB, NEP, OCFC, PEAK, PPBI, SPWH, SSRM

Small Journal Trades (Norbert's Gambit) still open:
OBE, SU

A pretty sizable holdover from one of my previous buy and hold style strategies (and slowly liquidating now - it's also the main reason for that spike upwards on that last plotted chart point above):
YGR.to

The 'gist of my strategy is fairly simple, really.
1. Build a watchlist of companies that have grown their Tangible NAV per share for at least 2 years in a row AND are "undervalued" to the rest of the market (see explanation below).
2. Buy the one that has suffered the largest percentage drop in market price over a relatively short period of time (when compared to the others on that watchlist).
3. Sell when stock price has recovered somewhat (or if just too much time has elapsed and it is now subjecting you to that dreaded "opportunity cost", or if its quarterly earnings report was sub par).

My overly simplistic determination of an Undervalued Condition (I keep 2 kinds of watchlists):
1. If it is trading below its TNAV/share (and still growing its NAV, of course), then it is undervalued.
OR
2. If it pays a dividend and this dividend is yielding more than the "average" dividend yield on my dividend stock watchlist (and is still growing its NAV, of course), then it is undervalued.

Adding in some dynamically sized diversification to the mix:
1. Place buy order for the new deepest sold off stock using 1/2 the dollar amount of your currently open largest position's cost base (any uninvested cash reserve is also considered a position in that regard).
2. If cash reserve is insufficient for the desired new stock position size, then sell some of your largest stock holding to fill that deficit.

I have many more nuances concerning my limit order buy/sell targets and date ranges, but I don't feel comfortable sharing the rest of my system just yet...
 
Sell order was triggered today for CUZ @ $20.30
(sold at small loss, too much time elapsed to continue with it)

Also, received a couple of small dividends for SU.to and SU the other day. Those are always welcome ;)

I have buy orders set for WCP.to, REI and a tiny top-up one for OBE.to, but I just can't see them getting filled tomorrow unless the market shits itself... Fingers crossed.

Updated XIRR: 29.30%

PnL 27 June 2023.jpg



Current Open Swing Trade Positions:
BTE.to, OBE.to, PHX.to, SGY.to, SU.to, VET.to
BTU, HAFC, HTBK, IIPR, INDB, NEP, OCFC, PEAK, PPBI, SPWH, SSRM

Small Journal Trades (Norbert's Gambit) still open:
OBE, SU

Still holding from previous system:
YGR.to
 
Today's events:
1. buy limit order filled for UVSP @ 18.27
2. sold a tiny bit of INDB @ 45.57 to top up cash reserves for next buy order placement (after exchg rates and dividend factored in it was a 4.67% loss, position held for 41 days = -34.72% annualized)
3. buy limit order placed for REI
4. sell limit order, reduced target, filled for PPBI @ 21.33 (after exchg rates factored in it was a 12.85% gain, held for 57 days = 117.01% annualized)
5. REI limit order expired, replaced with slightly higher REI buy limit order for tomorrow. Also, I currently have a buy order open for NWC.to in Canadian market - but unlikely to fill as it's pretty far from the last price.

Portfolio Avg Annual Gain (XIRR) = 29.93%
Updated PnL chart (4.54 years, zero leverage):
PnL.jpg


Current Open Swing Trade Positions:
BTE.to, OBE.to, PHX.to, SGY.to, SU.to, VET.to
BTU, HAFC, HTBK, IIPR, INDB, NEP, OCFC, PEAK, SPWH, SSRM, UVSP

Small Journal Trades (Norbert's Gambit) still open:
OBE, SU

Still holding from previous system:
YGR.to
 
Today's events:
1. sell limit order filled for VET.to @ 16.84 (including the dividend it amounted to a 16.19% gain. held this stock for 31 days, so a nice 485% annualized gain there I figure).
2. placed a "top-up" buy limit order for BTE.to (due to my excess cash reserves at the moment).
3. increased the share number on my current buy limit order for NWC.to

I don't expect to have either buy orders filled today though (nor any other sell orders for that matter).

Will update portfolio standing after close.

Portfolio Avg. Annual Gain (XIRR) = 30.33%
Updated PnL chart (4.54 years, zero leverage):
PnL.jpg


Current Open Swing Trade Positions:
BTE.to, OBE.to, PHX.to, SGY.to, SU.to
BTU, HAFC, HTBK, IIPR, INDB, NEP, OCFC, PEAK, SPWH, SSRM, UVSP

Small Journal Trades (Norbert's Gambit) still open:
OBE, SU

Still holding from previous system:
YGR.to

Current Open Buy orders set for:
NWC.to, REI
 
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Limit sell order got filled at the open price of 15.69 for OCFC. (Reduced target - too much time passed)
Including the dividend and exchange rate, this trade netted me a 7.01% gain. Held it for 64 days though, so annualized that works out to 47% or so.

Looking like buy orders not going to get filled again. Oh well, sooner or later they will. Portfolio is currently 78.66% invested, 21.34% sitting in cash.

Portfolio Avg. Annual Gain (XIRR) = 30.38%
Updated PnL chart (4.54 years, zero leverage):
PnL.jpg


Current Open Swing Trade Positions:
BTE.to, OBE.to, PHX.to, SGY.to, SU.to
BTU, HAFC, HTBK, IIPR, INDB, NEP, PEAK, SPWH, SSRM, UVSP

Small Journal Trades (Norbert's Gambit) still open:
OBE, SU

Still holding from previous system:
YGR.to

Current Open Buy orders reset again for:
NWC.to, REI
 
Last edited:
Sweet! Buy order filled for REI @ 1.74

Now my open buy orders are:
NWC.to and HAFC (for a top up)
 
Buy order filled this morning for NWC.to @ 30.78

New buy orders are set for:
BTO.to and KTB
 
Sell order filled for OBE.to @ 8.43 (reduced target due to time in trade)
+4.09%, held for 66 days = 24.8% annualized gain

Sell order filled for REI @ 1.94
+11.49% (adjusted for exchg rate), held for 3 days (settlement date to settlement date) = aprox. 56 million % annualized, LOL.

wow, busy day...
Sell order filled for IIPR @ 75.20 (failed trade - waited to sell on strength)
-11.38% (including 2 dividends + exchg rate adjustments), held for 170 days = -22.85% annualized

Portfolio Avg. Annual Gain (XIRR) = 31.24%
Updated PnL chart (4.56 years, zero leverage):

PnL.PNG


Open Swing Trade Positions:
BTE.to, PHX.to, SGY.to, SU.to, NWC.to
BTU, HAFC, HTBK, INDB, NEP, PEAK, SPWH, SSRM, UVSP

Small Journal Trades (Norbert's Gambit) still open:
SU

Still holding from previous system:
YGR.to

Buy Orders in place for: NPI.to and SSRM (for a small top up)
 
Last edited:
Reduced sell order got filled today for HAFC @ 16.16
8.13% gain (adjusted for exchange rates), stock was held for 42 days = 97% annualized gain

Portfolio Avg. Annual Gain (XIRR) = 31.24%
Updated PnL chart (4.56 years, zero leverage):

PnL.JPG


Portfolio is 78% invested and 22% in cash at the moment.

Open Swing Trade Positions:
BTE.to, PHX.to, SGY.to, SU.to, NWC.to
BTU, HTBK, INDB, NEP, PEAK, SPWH, SSRM, UVSP

Small Journal Trade (Norbert's Gambit) still open:
SU

Still holding from previous system:
YGR.to

Buy Orders in place for: NPI.to and UVSP (top up order)
 
Reduced sell order filled at the open price of 6.06 for SPWH.
7.39% gain, held this one for 46 days = 76% annualized gain

Buy order filled for UVSP @ 18.40 (to top up this position size)

Portfolio Avg. Annual Gain (XIRR) = 31.41%
Updated PnL chart (4.57 years, zero leverage):

PnL.JPG


Portfolio is 79% invested and 21% in cash at the moment.

Open Swing Trade Positions:
BTE.to, PHX.to, SGY.to, SU.to, NWC.to
BTU, HTBK, INDB, NEP, PEAK, SSRM, UVSP

Small Journal Trade (Norbert's Gambit) still open:
SU

Still holding from previous system:
YGR.to

Buy Orders are now set for NPI.to and VNDA
 
Last edited:
Bought XOM this morning @ 100.59

Portfolio = 83% stocks, 17% cash
XIRR = 30.77%

Buy orders are now set for NPI.to and NJR
 
Last edited:
Sold HTBK @ 8.96 (failed trade - timed out and sold on some strength)
-15.07% loss (including the dividend & exchg rate fluctuation), held for 128 days = -37.24% annualized loss

Partially sold some YGR.to @ 1.76 to refill my bank account (bought my son a car over the weekend).
stats kind of irrelevant since this stock is a hold-over from my discontinued buy&hold style system, but for kicks I worked it out anyway:
+66.42% gain, held for 1,358 days = 14.67% annualized gain

Sold BTE.to @ 4.69
+11.14% gain, held for 29 days = 278% annualized gain

Portfolio = 74% stocks, 26% cash
Portfolio Avg. Annual Gain (XIRR) = 31.33%
Updated PnL chart (4.58 years, zero leverage):

PnL.JPG


Open Swing Trade Positions:
PHX.to, SGY.to, SU.to, NWC.to
BTU, INDB, NEP, PEAK, SSRM, UVSP, XOM

Small Journal Trade (Norbert's Gambit) still open:
SU

Still holding from previous system:
YGR.to

Buy Orders are now set for NPI.to and NJR
 
Last edited:
Sold PHX.to @ 6.98 (failed trade, waited to sell on some strength, the 2 dividend payments pushed this into profit for me though)
+4.03% gain (including the dividends), held for 126 days = 12% annualized gain

Sold SGY.to @ 8.10 (reduced target, 1 dividend collected on this one)
+8.41% gain (including the dividend), held for 38 days = 117% annualized gain

Sold UVSP @ 19.45 (quick flip due to how long ago the sell off was)
+5.26% gain (adjusted for exchange rates), held for 15 days = 248% annualized gain

Portfolio = 57% stocks, 43% cash
Portfolio Avg. Annual Gain (XIRR) = 31.41%
Updated PnL chart (4.59 years, zero leverage):

PnL.JPG


Open Swing Trade Positions:
SU.to, NWC.to
BTU, INDB, NEP, PEAK, SSRM, XOM

Small Journal Trade (Norbert's Gambit) still open:
SU

Still holding from previous system:
YGR.to

Buy Orders are now set for NWC.to (small top up order) and XOM (small top up order)
 
Last edited:
Sold off some more of my YGR.to @ 1.79 to begin another small journal trade.
Bought some SSRM.to @ 19.60 CAD (the journal trade) with the intention of selling it in the USA market along with my other SSRM holding - at an appropriate time, of course.
 
USDCAD is also looking bearish in a weekly time frame. the trend is already reversed from bullish to bearish and after a weak correction phase, it is maintaining bearish.
 
INDB reduced sell order got filled @ 53.48
+11.5% gain (adjusted for exchange rate and 1 dividend), held for 32 days = 246% annualized gain

Portfolio = 52% stocks, 48% cash
Portfolio Avg. Annual Gain (XIRR) = 31.41%
Updated PnL chart (4.59 years, zero leverage):

PnL.JPG


Open Swing Trade Positions:
SU.to, NWC.to
BTU, NEP, PEAK, SSRM, XOM

Small Journal Trade (Norbert's Gambit) still open:
SU, SSRM

Still holding from previous system:
YGR.to

Buy Orders are now set for NWC.to (small top up order) and BTG
 
Last edited:
Reduced price Sell order got filled at the open for BTU @ 22.00
+10.56% gain (adjusted for exchange rate), held for 41 days = 144% annualized gain

Buy order got filled for BTG @ 3.61

Currently, Buy Orders are set for NWC.to (small top up order) and UVV

Yay! Buy order for UVV filled already @ 48.68

Buy Orders now set for NWC.to (small top up order) and NJR

Portfolio = 63% stocks, 37% cash
Portfolio Avg. Annual Gain (XIRR) = 31.57%
Updated PnL chart (4.59 years, zero leverage):

PnL.JPG


Open Swing Trade Positions:
SU.to, NWC.to
NEP, PEAK, SSRM, XOM, BTG, UVV

Small Journal Trade (Norbert's Gambit) still open:
SU, SSRM

Still holding from previous system:
YGR.to

Buy Orders are now set for NPI.to and NJR
 
Last edited:
Buy order filled for NJR @ 46.08

Sell order filled for PEAK @ 22.08 (failed trade - sold on some strength)
-1.42% loss (including 1 dividend and exchange rate adjustments), held for 134 days = -4% annualized loss

Sell order filled for SU.to @ 40.15 (time reduced price)
+2.15% (including 1 dividend), held for 89 days = 9% annualized gain

Portfolio = 60% stocks, 40% cash
Portfolio Avg. Annual Gain (XIRR) = 31.65%
Updated PnL chart (4.60 years, zero leverage):

PnL.JPG


Open Swing Trade Positions:
NWC.to
NEP, SSRM, XOM, BTG, UVV, NJR

Small Journal Trade (Norbert's Gambit) still open:
SSRM

Still holding from previous system:
YGR.to

Buy Order set for NPI.to and fund-raising partial sell order for BTG in the USD side (afterwards buy order will be set for AEM).
 
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Sold a smidgeon of my BTG holding @ 3.59 (to bump up my USD cash for new buy order placements)
-0.55% loss (exchange rate adjusted), held for 2 days = -64% loss annualized

Bought NPI.to @ 27.10

Buy orders in place for NWC.to (position top-up order) and AEM

Portfolio = 77% stocks, 23% cash
XIRR = 31.72%
 
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Bought AEM @ 51.36 yesterday (slightly annoyed with myself for that order price slip up - meant to buy it at 51.00 like I did in my wife's account - oh well, shouldn't really matter very much in the long run).

Partial Sell order in place for BTG to bolster up my USD cash reserves (looking to start a position in XEL afterwards).
Buy order in place for ARE.to

Portfolio = 80% stocks, 20% cash
XIRR = 31.09%
 
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