Forgot to mention also the overnight financing costs, though positions average 3 sessions, so don't usually pay these more than twice per position. I don't believe UK SB costs are damaging my lifestyle but, still, it would be an interesting comparison.
I pay so much interest (into costs) because I used to run a long / short equity book for a fund but 'we' decided that running it across UK stocks was pointless because of the costs, and we were even members of LSE!
Not that this point is of interest to you but we noticed (as a firm) that liquidity in anything but US stocks was decreasing to a point of no return for active traders. Amazing really when you consider the algos out there.
I really hope that at some point stock markets outside the US have a serious catch up on costs or they're dead.
Rally to 5588 as expected, price got 6pts higher but then rejected. Not happy that we got to first resistance and fell back all in one session, wouldm rather it had taken 2-3 days, maybe even got a little higher but I have a couple of sell orders placed ready in case there is a collapse tomorrow.
FTSE looks undecided but the Dow and S&P breached recent swing highs on Friday so I don't want to be short on UK large caps when the US is buying. Have cancelled short orders (untriggered) and entered a few buys. One triggered already this am, others getting close. While I would hope to be able to add to clutch of buys tonight, few share charts seem to be approaching a suitable entry pattern. Might need another retracement before able to get long in a big way.
Quick round-up.
July saw account up +6%, win rate nearly 70%. This compares well with previous winning months’ win rates (55%, 45% and 57%), suggesting I am actually performing better. Noted positively that July did not witness any negative draw-down: on the other hand, results would have been twice as good if I’d stopped trading two-thirds of the way through the month.
Currently holding 8 longs and 2 (smaller) shorts. The shorts are smaller as taken opportunistically but counter to the prevailing US trend, through the volatility last week. I expect them to be stopped out tomorrow or Tuesday but I will close them manually if the market continues to rally.
July saw account up +6%, win rate nearly 70%. This compares well with previous winning months’ win rates (55%, 45% and 57%), suggesting I am actually performing better. Noted positively that July did not witness any negative draw-down: on the other hand, results would have been twice as good if I’d stopped trading two-thirds of the way through the month.
Currently holding 8 longs and 2 (smaller) shorts. The shorts are smaller as taken opportunistically but counter to the prevailing US trend, through the volatility last week. I expect them to be stopped out tomorrow or Tuesday but I will close them manually if the market continues to rally.
Closed out my longs yesterday to take profits: timing not great - missed the early am peak and the afternoon peak, closed between the two. Ho hum.
Current upleg looks like it's running out of steam as they seem to do after about 3 days lately - slowing prices, weakening candlesticks and falling volume, so I have put in 5 sell orders this am. I don't think any market drop likely in the next 3 days will neutralise the June uptrend so I will be happy to close early in the money if triggered.
Current upleg looks like it's running out of steam as they seem to do after about 3 days lately - slowing prices, weakening candlesticks and falling volume, so I have put in 5 sell orders this am. I don't think any market drop likely in the next 3 days will neutralise the June uptrend so I will be happy to close early in the money if triggered.
China Diapers
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Good luck China. The method in this thread too unpredictable - maybe it's choppy market conditions but entries not reliable enough: plus all stocks move in same way off this signal so it's just like having one massive over-exposed position.
Gone to try hikkake swings.
Gone to try hikkake swings.
China Diapers
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Good luck to you too
Thought you were having success? Is this not the case?
Yes and no - success rate very variable, and profit levels seem random - maybe because my exit rules are likewise random. FTSE stock swings seem to move in tandem so they mostly turn and continue at the same time. This just increases risk of big across the board reversal, too much exposure. Hikkake signals are no holy grail, but they come more randomly across the 100, so inherently limit risk. Got to work on the exits though.
barjon
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To me, this suggests a trading method.
If the ftse stocks move in tandem as you have identified. Instead of now moving to another method to swing trade them which you've realised means taking on the same trade across the board, just with a different stock. Why dont you trade a method that makes the most of this tandem move?
The best trader I know, skill wise, trades between 6 to 8 ftse stocks. He is long the stronger ones and short the weaker ones. He manages this book each day, adding to some at support, selling others at resistance. It's a lovely method. I asked him once what made it work and he said it's a game of memory, remembering where support / resistance is and buying / selling into these levels. He covered barc, beeps, roboz, lloyds, vod, shell and honkies if I remember correctly. He also kept the ftse future ready in case he found himself too long or too short. As far as I'm aware he's been trading this for about 10 years.
Just an idea.
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That's an elegant method. I do believe through TA and position management is only really practicable on a small number of charts at a time, and it's obviously better to focus on the same few and get to know them like family.
Systems choice is partly a matter of time and resources, not just win rates and returns - I haven't time to do TA intra-session apart from a couple of quick price checks so I need to run a system that lets me set and forget entry and exit levels: I can revise these after the close. I also personally need the lower risk and mental input that comes from using a least discretionary system - that's a personal thing.
Systems choice is partly a matter of time and resources, not just win rates and returns - I haven't time to do TA intra-session apart from a couple of quick price checks so I need to run a system that lets me set and forget entry and exit levels: I can revise these after the close. I also personally need the lower risk and mental input that comes from using a least discretionary system - that's a personal thing.
PS - Re-starting with a new entry signal certainly isn't just a matter of selecting a better TA pattern, it also has to have a slight psychological effect - setting out on a marathon race in a beautiful pair of brand new shorts isn't going to make anyone run faster, but it has to feel better.
