Swing Trading by Rivalland

tomorton

Legendary member
8,438 1,367
Helenqu and DaveJB

Hi again. You both expressed an interest in my swing trades since 4/5. Sad to say I neglected to follow the simple rule in Rivalland against going short in an uptrend. Feel now rather like having stood in the middle of a quiet motorway - still around but a bit ragged round the edges.

However, here is a summary of what I think SHOULD have happened. On 4/5 we were in an obvious uptrend following a series of swing lows and the established swing trader would have been long already.

Assuming no postitions that day - the FTSE made a swing high on 7/5. With the index in an established uptrend, confirmed by the positive slope of the 14DMA etc etc it would have been overly aggressive to go short but you will see it could have been done, in contravention of the book's guidance.

However, sticking to the book, we had a low at 9/5 though this was not a swing low, leading back into the uptrend to the swing high of 16/5. Again, resisting the temptation to go short (only wish I had), we were rewarded with a swing low at 21/5.

A buy could have been entered on the 22/5 from3972. The upleg from the 21/5 swing low is still in force so this position should still be held. It has been as high as 4148 (today), a potential maximum gain so far of 176 points, equivalent to a 4.4% gain from 21/5 and there has been plenty of time to take profits of over 100 points.

I am now waiting for another swing low so I can go long. Or for a failure of the uptrend as long predicted which would allow me to go short as from 3908, if I've read this right, that being the low of the last swing low (21/5).

Just hoping I have shaken off the determination to go short in uptrends and day-trade out of boredom. Rule 3: Wait for the signal.

Good luck all.
 

DaveJB

Experienced member
1,159 42
Hi, and thanks for the record - just out of interest have you tried a swing charting program like hottrader?
For Helen, I'v ealmost finished Elder's 'Come Into My Trading Room' - now THAT is much better, chuck Tharp and read Elder, much less psychobabble!
Dave
;-)
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,438 1,367
Hi DaveJB

re hottrader - I had previously been to the website but not thought of buying the software. I hate paying for software anyway.

I shall press on a bit longer with Rivalland/Gann's methodology manually and see how far I can get. If my trading starts to impose more workload than I care to handle I may seriously look at hottrader. Thanks.
 

ZigZag

Active member
123 0
tomorton. A good post . Like you I often position myself against the trend. ( 5day Regression Analysis) Needless to say I kick myself afterwards. However not much damage done as I employ very tight stops knowing the risks. To add to your discussion I am seeking to short at what I consider a swing low at 4080 (16MAY High) with a target at 4048 (2 Jun Low). If the 4048 is broken I will add to my short. If the price falls to the levels above but fails to breech them I will consider them support lines & go long. Good luck
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,438 1,367
Cheers ZigZag.

I haven't had a look at the chart to think properly about your figures but from memory I can say that I tried shorting recently at 4038, 4058, 4070 and 4080 and got burnt.

Tight stops might be essential here because there's so much unfounded buying optimism about in the US. In fact their charts get more bullish the higher they go.

I am wary about shorting now unless we breach 3908, the low of the last swing low (21/5 I think).

Off to see charts re your post. Good luck.
 

Helenqu

Established member
841 3
DaveJB said:
For Helen, I'v ealmost finished Elder's 'Come Into My Trading Room' - now THAT is much better, chuck Tharp and read Elder, much less psychobabble!
Dave
;-)

Yep great book, obviously written by someone who's been there done it :)
 

DaveJB

Experienced member
1,159 42
Tomorton,
sounds like you're not 'the type' to use Hottrader perhaps, not a slur - I mean you sound more the DIY type. There's a free program at www.gannalyst.com ... a 'lite' package that isn't imo as good, but the price is zero which kind of helps ;-)
... if you fancied a look at this stuff, as I remember that freebie has some interesting info in the help, if anyone is new to swing charts etc and wants a quick look at them.
Helen, possibly - I suspect it was determination more than anything else that settled the future for Dr Elder. His book is much more a case of 'do this, do that, multiply this' - what I hated about Tharp is that the first half was spent leading up to what I got out of Elder, while Tharp just drifted off. More introspective than a DIY Endoscope kit in my never humble opinion. The reason you lose money is because the price goes the wrong way - I am sure some people then compound the error by not exiting, I just thought he dragged that out about 100 pages too far.
Elder, on the other hand, gives practical advice - some of it pants no doubt - but even a simple idea like the A,B, C trader one... simple, and yet probably of great use to the majority - here's a way to rate your trading performance - how many people have trouble with that? I think the book was worth it for that alone almost (mind you, I did get it very cheap <g>)
You DO have to admire him for his self opinion though, I absolutely chortled every time I read about his wonderful force index etc and how we'd all be rushing to program it into our programs... modest little chap, isn't he?
Dave
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,438 1,367
DaveJB
When I DIY, I make a mess of it so am trying to follow the well-used rules a bit more carefully in future. As part of which I have ordered The Master Swing Trader by Alan Farley and hope to sdee it arrive in the morning.
Cheers.
 

DaveJB

Experienced member
1,159 42
No probs.
The gannalyst lite isn't bad, dunno about you I just don't seem to have the time to mess with stuff these days so although it looked okay I passed it by... BUT it did Gann charts etc for free, and if you are trying ideas out etc that's as cheap as it gets. I was very lucky and got a free Hottrader, which honestly seems a better program than the gannalyst paid for version, but I reckon either one would be okay IF you wanted a program to draw the Gann 'skyscraper' charts for you - from playing with HT I'm pretty sure that I'd be happy finding trades with it if so inclined.
I used to dream about decent software, now I've loads and no time to run it... one day....
Dave
 
 
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