arabianights
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I heard, but may be wrong, that apparently liffe spreads are traded seperately to the outrights on sugar so armed with an autospreader you can make free money...
and that's all I "know" about sugar.
and that's all I "know" about sugar.
arabianights
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LIFFE sugar hit an 8 month high today apparently, just streamed on my reuters machine 
It's all going on...
It's all going on...
arabianights
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Sorry it only me engaging you here, as I know nothing about sugar and am very unlikely ever to. This is the kinda thread elitetrader would be better at... although unfortunately it's a very minor interest this market I should think, you may have a lot of difficulty finding anyone on the net with intelligble views.
Masterful
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Taken from the Softs report by Robin Rosenberg
...
With newly harvested supply flowing. The bullish camp is concerned that losses related to last month’s flooding in Pakistan and India were over estimated. New highs in precious metals, weakness in the U.S. dollar and general strength in commodities have provided support. Though recent weather in major Brazilian growing areas has been favorable, the forecast is calling for drier conditions ahead. Let us not forget the “La Nina” episode in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the drought like conditions it can produce in various areas of South America. The lineup of vessels expected to load Sugar at Brazilian ports stood at 105 this week.
Brazilian cash Sugar market activity is reported to have slowed to a snail’s pace. The reason behind this is
reported to be tightness in supply. The USDA has lowered it’s estimate for the Sugar cane crop of Brazil.
According to the USDA’s attaché in Sao Paulo, Brazil will harvest 639 million tonnes of Sugar cane in the
current marketing year. That is 21 million tonnes below the previous estimate of 660 million tonnes. Russian
sugar production is lower as well. Russian production of refined Sugar from domestically harvested Sugar beet
stood at 921,600 tonnes through October 4. This compares with production of 984,000 tonnes during the same time
period last year. As a result of the flooding produced by Hurricane Karl and a host of other tropical storms,
Mexican officials have lowered their expectations for the 2010 -11 Sugar harvest. This has bullish connotations
for the Sugar market! The Soft Spot reported last week that production downgrades would be coming.
...
With newly harvested supply flowing. The bullish camp is concerned that losses related to last month’s flooding in Pakistan and India were over estimated. New highs in precious metals, weakness in the U.S. dollar and general strength in commodities have provided support. Though recent weather in major Brazilian growing areas has been favorable, the forecast is calling for drier conditions ahead. Let us not forget the “La Nina” episode in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the drought like conditions it can produce in various areas of South America. The lineup of vessels expected to load Sugar at Brazilian ports stood at 105 this week.
Brazilian cash Sugar market activity is reported to have slowed to a snail’s pace. The reason behind this is
reported to be tightness in supply. The USDA has lowered it’s estimate for the Sugar cane crop of Brazil.
According to the USDA’s attaché in Sao Paulo, Brazil will harvest 639 million tonnes of Sugar cane in the
current marketing year. That is 21 million tonnes below the previous estimate of 660 million tonnes. Russian
sugar production is lower as well. Russian production of refined Sugar from domestically harvested Sugar beet
stood at 921,600 tonnes through October 4. This compares with production of 984,000 tonnes during the same time
period last year. As a result of the flooding produced by Hurricane Karl and a host of other tropical storms,
Mexican officials have lowered their expectations for the 2010 -11 Sugar harvest. This has bullish connotations
for the Sugar market! The Soft Spot reported last week that production downgrades would be coming.
I currently know nothing about sugar but am quite keen to start learning. I was wondering if you can point me towards some resources? The big first question I have is around the timing of havests. Google tells me comprehensively who grows sugar, but I've not really been able to figure out harvest dates for each region.
I'm sure in future I'll be able to provide a view, but first I have a lot to learn.
Cheers.
I'm sure in future I'll be able to provide a view, but first I have a lot to learn.
Cheers.
Count me in, interested but don't know too much other than the flat price is a bit of a beast...
Would like to know about the fundamentals, i.e. crop years etc. for instance, I know in Cotton its only Jul and Dec that matter, and that this Dec is almost toally detached from the next Dec as they are different harvests, so spreading can be tricky on that market...
any/all pointers resources appreciated. :smart:
Arab - on ICE the spreads and outright are seperate, they don't imply in/out of each other. sadly, only big boys are quick enough to take advantage (drw etc.) and in practice just means outrights are miles wide and thin - used to be implied but ice switched them off so the arbers could get rich!!
Would like to know about the fundamentals, i.e. crop years etc. for instance, I know in Cotton its only Jul and Dec that matter, and that this Dec is almost toally detached from the next Dec as they are different harvests, so spreading can be tricky on that market...
any/all pointers resources appreciated. :smart:
Arab - on ICE the spreads and outright are seperate, they don't imply in/out of each other. sadly, only big boys are quick enough to take advantage (drw etc.) and in practice just means outrights are miles wide and thin - used to be implied but ice switched them off so the arbers could get rich!!
Masterful
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taken from the Softs report by Robin Rosenberg....
So far this week Sugar has backed off nearly two cents from the highs. Tightness in available stocks and high prices continue to see many buyers on the sidelines, with others buying on an as needed basis. When buyers refuse to buy, prices must decline to a level that encourages them to do so. India’s Sugar production is much improved over last year. During the first quarter of 2011 Brazilian harvest activity will be winding down. Hopes are that India will export two to three million tonnes of Sugar at that time. Indian government officials are expected to release their Sugar exportation plans the second week of November. The question is will it happen? At this point it’s not a given. I would say it is imperative. Take this into consideration; tightness in supply, India decides not to export, drought like conditions emerge in Brazilian growing areas due to La Nina. Even without continued weakness in the U.S. dollar these conditions could create the foundation for a sharp move to the upside.
The lineup of vessels expected to take on loads of Brazilian Sugar has dropped by fifteen over the last week to seventy eight. As the Brazilian harvest winds down importers turn to other nations for their Sugar supply. Tightness in available stocks is driving the Sugar market higher. World sugar stocks are said to be at twenty five year lows! On Thursday London’s LIFFE Sugar contract rose to eight month highs. Trade buyers are concerned that India will not have the ability to provide enough supply to satisfy demand in 2011. Also a drag on supply is the fact that both the U.S. and Germany have decided to allow five percent more ethanol blend in their gasoline. The U.S. will allow fifteen percent and Germany ten percent.
So far this week Sugar has backed off nearly two cents from the highs. Tightness in available stocks and high prices continue to see many buyers on the sidelines, with others buying on an as needed basis. When buyers refuse to buy, prices must decline to a level that encourages them to do so. India’s Sugar production is much improved over last year. During the first quarter of 2011 Brazilian harvest activity will be winding down. Hopes are that India will export two to three million tonnes of Sugar at that time. Indian government officials are expected to release their Sugar exportation plans the second week of November. The question is will it happen? At this point it’s not a given. I would say it is imperative. Take this into consideration; tightness in supply, India decides not to export, drought like conditions emerge in Brazilian growing areas due to La Nina. Even without continued weakness in the U.S. dollar these conditions could create the foundation for a sharp move to the upside.
The lineup of vessels expected to take on loads of Brazilian Sugar has dropped by fifteen over the last week to seventy eight. As the Brazilian harvest winds down importers turn to other nations for their Sugar supply. Tightness in available stocks is driving the Sugar market higher. World sugar stocks are said to be at twenty five year lows! On Thursday London’s LIFFE Sugar contract rose to eight month highs. Trade buyers are concerned that India will not have the ability to provide enough supply to satisfy demand in 2011. Also a drag on supply is the fact that both the U.S. and Germany have decided to allow five percent more ethanol blend in their gasoline. The U.S. will allow fifteen percent and Germany ten percent.
Masterful
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Right now we know supply is tight, Brazil's production fell-off badly in October. That is the main factor which exacerbated backwardation recently. The market expects supply to get better and weak inventories will also be intensifying the situation.
IMHO
IMHO
Masterful
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The key factor right now in a forecast of improved supply for sugar is the indication that india will switch to a net exporter from being the biggest importer.
Masterful
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Taken from a report by the Commodity Research Bureau....
SUGAR
March sugar prices surged to a new 29-year high. Bullish factors include (1) speculation that India may limit sugar exports as it rebuilds its inventories, (2) a plunge in sugar output in Brazil's Center South, the country's biggest producing region, after output fell to 1.5MMT between Oct 1-15, down -30% from a year earlier, (3) ISO's cut in its 2010-11 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.0 MMT from an Aug estimate of 3.2 MMT, along with its statement that it may lower its surplus estimate further this month due to crop damage in Brazil, and (4) ISO's forecast for a 1.7% increase in global sugar demand this year that will cut the inventory-to-consumption ratio to a 20-yr low of 32%. A bearish factor was ISO's hike in its 2010-11 sugar production estimate for India to 26 MMT, up from an Aug estimate of 25.5 MMT.
Fundamental Outlook-Medium-term Bullish -Sugar fundamentals are firmly bullish on supply concerns and as India may limit sugar exports. The long-term sugar supply picture remains adequate with ISO forecasting a 2.0 MMT global sugar surplus for 2010/11 after two years of deficits. The USDA is forecasting a sharp 7.9% rise in 2010/11 global sugar production versus a rise of only +2.6% y/y in consumption.
SUGAR
March sugar prices surged to a new 29-year high. Bullish factors include (1) speculation that India may limit sugar exports as it rebuilds its inventories, (2) a plunge in sugar output in Brazil's Center South, the country's biggest producing region, after output fell to 1.5MMT between Oct 1-15, down -30% from a year earlier, (3) ISO's cut in its 2010-11 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.0 MMT from an Aug estimate of 3.2 MMT, along with its statement that it may lower its surplus estimate further this month due to crop damage in Brazil, and (4) ISO's forecast for a 1.7% increase in global sugar demand this year that will cut the inventory-to-consumption ratio to a 20-yr low of 32%. A bearish factor was ISO's hike in its 2010-11 sugar production estimate for India to 26 MMT, up from an Aug estimate of 25.5 MMT.
Fundamental Outlook-Medium-term Bullish -Sugar fundamentals are firmly bullish on supply concerns and as India may limit sugar exports. The long-term sugar supply picture remains adequate with ISO forecasting a 2.0 MMT global sugar surplus for 2010/11 after two years of deficits. The USDA is forecasting a sharp 7.9% rise in 2010/11 global sugar production versus a rise of only +2.6% y/y in consumption.
