Stock Market Crashes

[adrianallen99]

"In a market like this, every story is a positive one. Any news is good news. It's pretty much taken for granted now that the market is going to go up."

- Wall Street Journal, 8/26/87, the day after the 1987 market peak

So what are your predictions on the next crash?

major crashes have occurred at roughly halving intervals - 89 years, 38 years, 18 years, 10 years.

 

[BBB]

Easy one. The next time you see the press talking about easy money in the bull market and stories about how Mrs Housewife has made a fortune in the markets.

Think back 4 years ago when everyone was piling into tech.
JP Morgan they say made a fortune out of the 27 crash. He realised it was time to sell when the shoe shine boys were giving stock recommendations.

Look for climatic volume, extended bars, gaps on the way up, etc

 

[Salty Gibbon]

The next crash will occur if and when Al Qaeda surpass 9/11 in the USA or more likely when my wife next takes the car out for a spin ( literally ).

I think the latter will occur before the former.

 

[BBB]

lol!

Yea - but did 9/11 create a crash? Sure there was a big sell off, but it was at the END of a previous decline following the tech bubble bursting. It actually created a bottom as people wondered if things could get any worse.

 

[Salty Gibbon]

I reckon that 9/11 exacerbated an existing slump.

If 9/11 were repeated now in the middle of a strong bull market it may well cause a crash.

 

[moneyfool]

If it occurs again surely the reaction would be slightly reduced as psychologically the world is now mentally prepared and half expecting such an event?

 

[Salty Gibbon]

Who knows ???

 

[BBB]

Good point Moneyfool. Still, if half the worlds NASDAQ market makers are wiped out again....

 

[jonnyy40]

Al Qaeda,Bird Flu.Maybe Bin Laden will catch it?