I WANT A MARKET CRASH

Joe

1
93 2
Good debate, I suspect that there will be one device that knows where the bottom is in this market ....it's called hindsight.

Only when we eventually rise off the bottom and stay off! will we know where it was.

I think the happenings of tomorrow and its interpretaion is crucial

Regards
Joe
 

shelman

1
439 1
Hi Joe
I think tomorrow is crucial but only short term.
I see quite a long consolidation period before the inevitable bull market magically starts the cycle once again.
Lets play them at their game.
Steve
 

traderx

Active member
146 2
It always amazes me! America is supposed to be where recession is looming and yet, Wall Street managed a rally of +135.7 on DOW and +60.28 on NAZ in expectation / anticipation of FED cuts tomorow.

What did the professional money in London do today. NOTHING - ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, BUT FRET AGAIN. There is something substantially different between the American culture and the Briitsh. Basically the BULL versus the BEAR. The POSITIVE versus the NEGATIVE. The cups half full (US) versus the cups half empty (UK)

It is a fact that even though the economic problems are mainly in America the UK seems to over-react to the downside situation, yet when the US rises the UK fails to take advantage of the rise. This is partly due to the time lag effect.

CONCLUSION: You are more likely to make money in UK if you are a BEAR (shorting specialist) than if you are a BULL. We live in a very sad country, a race of people who have forgotten how to lead and prefer to be led.

I never realised what sheep we have become until I became involved in the market. I suspect that UK have become subordinate to US and now it seems, incapable of doing anything without permission from Wall Street. What happened to the GREAT in Britian? How bizarre!

Tx
 
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traderx

Active member
146 2
The volatility continues with DOW off 238.35 and NAZ off 93.74. Another 20 days at this rate and the NAZ won't exist. The market did not like the 0.5% cut. Could bounce to the upside tomorrow but I would not like to bet on it. If the FTSE tracks Wall Street tomorrow the target of 4905 begins to look possible. Many traders will have opened long positions today and will be under pressure to sell when the spreads come off in the morning. I just have a feeling that the selling climax is some way off and the worst is yet to come. I hope I am wrong. I was a bit harsh on the UK market pro's in my last post but it is a fact that UK never quite seems to catch up with Wall Street and over-reacts to sell off in US. WATCH THIS SPACE. If markets go back into free fall we could see early intervention by the FED. The nightmare continues.

Tx
 

traderx

Active member
146 2
The BBC said dealers described a sense of real panick in the market today. BBC 6pm news declared that the sell off is accelerating and is now officially defined as a market CRASH, more serious than 1998.

I would say this description is more applicable to tech stocks but according to commentators the situation is becoming more serious by the day. None of our members should now be holding Long positions. The risks are far too great because nobody but nobody can forecast the bottom or predict the future.

In my view only the smart money can stop this rout and I really do not believe professionals want to stop it. I STRONGLY believe market professionals caused this bear market by attacking tech stocks one year ago today, then it spread to telecoms, now it applies to all tech stocks whether profitable or not, then it applies to defensives and old economy then the whole bloody market. HELP! THERE IS NOW WHERE LEFT TO GO - THE GLOOM AND DOOM MERCHANTS HAVE FINALLY INFECTED THE WHOLE MARKET. WELL DONE BROKERS, THERE WILL BE NO QUICK RECOVERY FROM THIS MESS.

Tx
 

madasafish

Well-known member
470 5
The investing public has as much blame for this mess as anyone and to blame the professionals is an abrogation of personal responsibilty.

WE were the people who bought rubbish to new hights - remember Media@invest near £1?
- so to blame others for the crash is just plain wrong.

Mike
 

traderx

Active member
146 2
Investment banks are stuffed full of money, obscene amounts of money just waiting to come into the market. Retail money is insignificant, only the smart money can decide when it is time to change direction of the trend. The doom and gloom is a self fulfilling prophecy. Gordon Brown et-al keep telling us the economy is strong and we have re-paid the national debt, that everything in the garden is rosy. The market professionals think something different. Both Gordon and the market cannot be right, the question is, which one is wrong, Gordon or the Market. I wonder............hmmmmmm

In reply to your comment, I have to disagree, I have been forecasting this scenario for sometime, you did not need a crystal ball to see the damage being caused by market professionals, brokers and analysts. The story has been unrelenting for the last 12 months, atacking everything tech until they finally got their way. NOW THEY FINALLY OVERDID IT - SURPRISE, SURPRISE IS THAT A NOT A FAMILIAR STORY WITH THESE CLOWNS WHO DELIBERATELY MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF STOCKS UP AND DOWN TO MEET THEIR OWN INSIDER PLAN.

Tx
 

madasafish

Well-known member
470 5
There is market manipulation of course: but on such a grand scale? WHo lost money? IF I believe your argument the private investor is insignificant so the institutions must have lost. So why are they so dumb as to let themselves manipulate themselves out of money.

Mike
 

traderx

Active member
146 2
OK Mike I think there is some validity in what you say, you are right to say you cannot apportion blame in clear cut way. The market is bigger than that, the market knows best etc........ I still do believe this situation has much to do with professionals over reacting to US economic situation and of course reacting directly to US market sell off. I still believe there is a total LACK of leadership from the big players in London. You will read many of my previous posts referring to the subordinate position to US adopted by the big players in London. If our economy is so strong then why are we dancing to Wall Streets tune? I believe it has partly to do with the internecine tendencies of the British culture and make up. There is an advantage in a major sell off, because the whole cycle starts again, with shares on sale for nothing, so that the market professionals can make a killing in the medium to long term.

I do not discount any theory, so please come back to me with your ideas. I think it is useful to have this debate.

Tx
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
With regards of tech stocks' hype and the following crash...it's a case of swindlers and victims...to diclose the swindles you need the victims to get wiser or for the victims to get wiser they need to get familiar with the swindles in the market...either way one has to be aware of manipulations to survive in the market...

Agree with Tx regarding UK big boys double immitating the US ones...just as it is done in foreign policy etc..

Riz
 

traderx

Active member
146 2
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday with losses concentrated in technology shares, clipping a three-day rally and resuming recent weeks of selling on a new batch of earnings warnings and layoffs from some corporate giants, including Walt Disney Co. (DIS.N) and Nortel Networks Corp. (NT.N)(NT.TO)

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) dropped 162.19 points, or 1.63 percent, to 9,785.35, according to the latest data. In the previous three trading sessions, the Dow had risen 5.6 percent. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) fell 118.34 points, or 6 percent, to 1,853.92. The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index (.SPX) slid 28.92 points, or 2.45 percent, to 1,153.25.

``People are still concerned we're heading for a recession and a serious profit slump,'' said Kevin Bannon, chief investment officer at BNY Asset Management, which oversees about $60 billion in assets. ``There are still people out there who don't appreciate how severe short-term earnings problems are.''

Walt Disney, theme park and television network owner, slumped 84 cents to $28.36 after a letter to employees outlined plans to cut 3 percent of its work force in the weak economy.

Canada's Nortel fell $2.76 to $14 in New York Stock Exchange trading after the world's No. 1 supplier of telecom equipment slashed its quarterly estimates and planned more job cuts amid pricing pressures and the U.S economic downturn. Reut16:17 03-28-01

BE VERY CAREFUL - THIS RECENT FALL IS BEING VIEWED AS SIGNIFICANT, THINGS COULD GET MUCH WORSE BEFORE THEY GET BETTER. THE BEARS HAVE RUN AMOCK. WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET. THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE CRUCIAL.

Tx
 

madasafish

Well-known member
470 5
I've been bearish on techs for a year. IMO anyone with a buy and hold policy on techs is just asking to lose as we are nowhere near a bottom. NAS C 1200?

As far as old economy is concerned, the US boom was driven by high techs which are now layoing off staff and downsizing. SO the old economy will at best stop growing. And at worst have a recession

With the average US Dow stock on a PE of 22 (as FTSE 100) these are all priced at 25% pa profit growth per year EVERY year.

My call: FTSE 100 in 4500s , DOw 7500 ish.

So when it falls don't blame market manipulation...

(Oh and by the way, please do NOT quote any analysts back to me. UNLESS they have in writing forecast Dow < 10k at start of year. Most of them are just parrots repeating the same half baked semi coherent rubbish).

I do love analysts:)

Mike
 

Joe

1
93 2
Amazingly we all get mesmerised by forecasters, analysts and false views of the value of a share. I recently saw one analyst review the valuation of ARM and suggest a downgrade from £10 to £8 at a time when the price was less than £4 and it went down!

Every so often we all have to return to basics; IMO the true value of a share is the assets of a company divided by the number of shares issued. ( without going into a long argument over asset valuations).

The stock market chooses to use valuations based on future profits. Like the story of the Emperor's new clothes, as long as we all believe that zxy shares are worth XXXp, there is no problem; however every now and then reality strikes and we have a "correction" except the media call it a collapse and panic sets in.

We all tend to run with the herd mentality, sometimes this brings good times, sometimes this brings bad, (not called Joseph for nothing you know). The main reason it brings private traders bad times is the inability to short the market. If we were profiting this way all would be well with the herd.

Take the opportunity to plan for the good times, learn from experience and go forward wiser for it. I take the view that amongst these institutional investors, who are making pots of money, are the people looking after my pension!

Regards
Joe
 

madasafish

Well-known member
470 5
I'm learning to short. It's like 1999 in reverse. Big profits, high risk.. but fun.

Worth doing if you trade full time or can time it right, have stop losses , take profits and are not greedy.

Not to be done if you worry...

Mike
 

Uncle

Established member
671 2
Mike, assume when you say you are into going short, you are using cfd's or options. If you have a found a broker that will accept going short in the normal sense, do please let us know who.

Many thanks

John
 

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