Starting out long term portfolio ETF's

1nvest

Well-known member
284 102
haha oke seeing your reply it's:

(XET) VANGUARD FTSE ALL-WORLD ETF Accumulation (IE00BK5BQT80)
(EAM) Vanguard USD Treasury Bond UCITS ETF Distrubuting (IE00BZ163M45)
do what you feel comfortable in, honestly. what works for some, doesn't always work for others
even though i've laid it a pretty good blueprint, try it out first
and then when you have it working for you, try experimenting further.
 

StockNewbie12

Junior member
20 5
do what you feel comfortable in, honestly. what works for some, doesn't always work for others
even though i've laid it a pretty good blueprint, try it out first
and then when you have it working for you, try experimenting further.
No i do believe in this method and want to make that work for me. It makes perfect sense that bonds go up when stocks go down i guess. People want to secure their money more at that time i'm figuring.
EDIT: this is creepy, comparing an world Enquity etf to an World Bond ETF's monthly closing periods in yahoo finance and bonds go up when stocks go down and vice versa :O I'm pretty happy i found this forum haha. Thank you for all the effort you people put into me! Will definitely visit this forum from time to time :)
 
Last edited:

CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,398 1,800
I think this could be useful for the discussion.
spxtiming.jpeg
 

1nvest

Well-known member
284 102
I think this could be useful for the discussion.
View attachment 299699
I'm not sure its useful to me. take picture B....Perfect timing
i've demonstrated its not about perfect timing. its about asset allocation. when you're not in equity, and if you move to a non correlated asset class, you dont need perfect timing, you can get by with noddy market timing
this is reason why most fail. they are looking for the perfect trend indicator, when to get in at tops and bottoms.
completely missing the point
 

CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,398 1,800
Picture A is more important.
Every time you have "sell A and buy B when X happens" you are timing the market.
On forex I am using moving averege crosses since 2015 so I am not buying bottoms.
There is no perfect trend indicator but every time you define condition to enter and exit you are timing the market, you are trespassing from investing to trading.
Dual Momentum is pretty simple and slow but it is a trading strategy with a couple of parameters so it can be overfitted, pretty precise and efficient with the past.
->https://blog.thinknewfound.com/2019/01/fragility-case-study-dual-momentum-gem/
 
Last edited:

1nvest

Well-known member
284 102
Picture A is more important.
Every time you have "sell A and buy B when X happens" you are timing the market.
On forex I ma using moving averege crosses since 2015 so I am not buying bottoms.
There is notperfect trend indicator but every time you define condition to enter and exit you are timing the market, you are trespassing from investing to trading.
Dual Momentum is pretty simple and slow but it is a tradingstrategy with a couple of parameters so it can be overfitted, pretty precise and efficient with the past.
no really, you mean what ive been doing for years is called market timing?
Cavaliere, of course i know its called market timing. my point is..it doesnt need to be "perfect".
picture B. Perfect market timing
it doesnt need to be. noddy market timing works equally as well. what makes the "difference" is not timing, its asset allocation. thats what gets me to p1ssing all over the market. timing as you say simply tells me to get in or get out of equity
yes, it can be momentum, it can moving average xover, it can be macd, it can be anything. anything at all
yes too, it can be overfitted, but how overfitted is it, if a 10 period MA works, and a 9 period, and an 8 period, and a 11 or 12 period..not so overfitted anymore is it?
momentum, yep you could go by antonacci, and use 12 period (bit late for me). you could use faber who uses a mixture of 3, 6 and 9 to reduce curvefitting. I know backtesting, honestly. i know its the past, i also know its a good indicator for the future. but you have to start somewhere. im not reinventing the wheel

start with something that works, then improve it
 
  • Like
Reactions: CavaliereVerde

1nvest

Well-known member
284 102
Dual Momentum makes a lot of sense and Iike it very much as a trendfollower but seems a bit too good to be true, if it is working for you stick with it! :)
Dual is where i started, so i cant knock it. however i moved on. momentum however is still at the heart my strategies. be it relative or absolute. I started with antonacci's concept. too good indeed, but its drawdown is awful. i could never sit through his drawdown , which was exposed considerably just last year. thats because he uses a 12 period momentum to define trend
still works of course, like i say doesnt need to be perfect, but it can be improved upon.
as can my simple example for the OP.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CavaliereVerde

ARBinstruktor

Junior member
32 3
I would just like to raise one question in all these discussions.


What is the outlook for

inflation

and therefore for interest rates in special, and for markets in general?





The standard model is the 60/40 approach, 60% equity and perhaps some other stuff like commodties, and 40% in interest products.

Some pages before I saw an allocation of 40% only in TLT and 15% in IEF.
TLT has a duration of almost 19!!! IEF still almost 8.

One percentage point lift in the term structure means a depreciation loss of 19% in TLT and 8% in IEF, roughly estimated

I belong to the camp of the inflationistas, so I would emphasize the commodity part, in stocks and commodities (although they had quite a run as well).
IEF at 15% is ok, when TLT is at maximum 10%, and I would add SHY as cash cushion for fishing stocks in the upcoming
SALE season.
 
 
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock