Starting out long term portfolio ETF's

StockNewbie12

Junior member
20 5
Here you go, first image is comparing an Equity (such as total world index) to an SMA
Second image is now instead of holding it in cash, you choose an asset class (bonds) that is inversely correlated to equity
and lastly third image is using dollar cost averaging for both. just $100

your drawdown is now far far more tolerable
15% drawdown and 15% average annual growth.
in a nutshell, Dalio forms the basis of asset classes, then simple timing makes it far far more effective.
i think i understand, atleast really trying to hahah.
You're basically saying that i need to find a bond ETF that holds about the same stocks as my Vanguard all-world ETF? To cancell each other out in bad/good times?

And if above statement i'm making is correct then i have to put my money (€100) in to the bond or equity that is decreased in price?
 

1nvest

Well-known member
304 108
Even better than this you can use Dual Momentum strategy.
The point is that I found many backtests of dual momentum but no live trackrecord.
While Dalio is really investing a lot of money with all weather I never found other managers timing the market.
im just getting started.
instead of using just world index. and use the stronger of world and SPY.
the reason why 99% dont beat the market is because that's not what they're trying to do. they are simply trying to mimic the exact same. loads of people use that same saying, not knowing the premise of the fund manager in the first place
 

1nvest

Well-known member
304 108
i think i understand, atleast really trying to hahah.
You're basically saying that i need to find a bond ETF that holds about the same stocks as my Vanguard all-world ETF? To cancell each other out in bad/good times?

And if above statement i'm making is correct then i have to put my money (€100) in to the bond or equity that is decreased in price?
no, let me break it down for you..
you have two ETFs.
(1) world equity
(2) world bond index
plot the simple moving average on the equity chart (using a monthly chart). when the close of (1) is greater than the sma. buy (1)
when the close of (1) is less than SMA, buy (2)
 

StockNewbie12

Junior member
20 5
ut the same stocks as my Vanguard all-world

no, let me break it down for you..
you have two ETFs.
(1) world equity
(2) world bond index
plot the simple moving average on the equity chart (using a monthly chart). when the close of (1) is greater than the sma. buy (1)
when the close of (1) is less than SMA, buy (2)
I think i understand! Can you maybe recommend a bond from this attached list to me? It's a list of commision free trackers from my broker
 

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1nvest

Well-known member
304 108
I think i understand! Can you maybe recommend a bond from this attached list to me? It's a list of commision free trackers from my broker
I've just handed you on a plate a way to absolutely smash "the market" for free. Don't thank me at all
instead ask me to find the commission free ETFs for you
love it!
 
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StockNewbie12

Junior member
20 5
I've just handed you on a plate a way to absolutely smash "the market" for free. Don't thank me at all
instead ask me to find the commission free ETFs for you
love it!
Well oke haha thank you but seeing i'm really new i won't recognize the golden tip here :D
 

1nvest

Well-known member
304 108
Well oke haha thank you but seeing i'm really new i won't recognize the golden tip here :D
IE00BK5BQT80 for World Equity
IE00BZ163M45 for Bonds can't see a good accumulating world bond ETF in your list. US bonds are fine. if they go down the pan, we're all buggered
These two should be all you need to get started. then as your account grows you can look at really maximising growth
 

StockNewbie12

Junior member
20 5
IE00BK5BQT80 for World Equity
IE00BZ163M45 for Bonds can't see a good accumulating world bond ETF in your list. US bonds are fine. if they go down the pan, we're all buggered
These two should be all you need to get started. then as your account grows you can look at really maximising growth
Thank you good sir! Glad i already made the right choice for the world equity etf :) bought 4 stocks of that one
 

StockNewbie12

Junior member
20 5
no, let me break it down for you..
you have two ETFs.
(1) world equity
(2) world bond index
plot the simple moving average on the equity chart (using a monthly chart). when the close of (1) is greater than the sma. buy (1)
when the close of (1) is less than SMA, buy (2)
How many data points is acceptable to calculate the sma? 7,8? And i'm asuming that those data points should be equal in highs and lows of the montly charts?
 

1nvest

Well-known member
304 108
How many data points is acceptable to calculate the sma? 7,8? And i'm asuming that those data points should be equal in highs and lows of the montly charts?
for a 10 month sma, you need 10 data points, 9 month 9 etc
and these should be using the closing price. honestly use yahoo finance or something like that. dont calculate them yourself
 
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CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,524 1,953
You don't need to calculate anything:
 

StockNewbie12

Junior member
20 5
Thank you for all the help and giving me the tools to determine what to buy and when!! :)

This is what i have now:

World Enquity's (70%)
(XET) VANGUARD FTSE ALL-WORLD ETF Accumulation (IE00BK5BQT80) 40%
(XET) SPDR RUSSELL2000US.S.CAP U.ETF Accumulation (IE00BJ38QD84) 10%
(EAM) Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe ETF Distrubuting (IE00B945VV12) 10%
(EAM) iShares Asia Pacific Dividend UCITS ETF Distrubuting (IE00B14X4T88) 10%

World Bonds (30%)
(EAM) Vanguard USD Treasury Bond UCITS ETF Distrubuting (IE00BZ163M45)30%

I have the feeling that it might be better to drop the Developed Europe or Asia Pacific and put that 10% on the Vanguard treasury bond?
 

1nvest

Well-known member
304 108
You don't need to calculate anything:
I love portfolio visualiser, doesnt cater for more advanced types
if you're into rotational investing, try rotation invest. portfolio visualiser is a little trivial by comparison
 
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