Starting out long term portfolio ETF's

Nowler

Experienced member
1,498 221
Oversimplified, but well worth half an hour of anyone's time.

Once you've watched it, take a stab at working out where we're at economically, and act accordingly.

Which will, if you get it right, make a significant difference to the resulting outcome.

Most people get it wrong because they don't understand that money is debt.

Watch and learn.

:cool:
Oh ya... very simplified :)
I think it's a more forgiving place to start than Mises, though to be fair those Mises videos are quite beginner friendly - the bootcamp ones in particular
 
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Nowler

Experienced member
1,498 221
ooowh hahah sorry, yeah bonds :)
Ah I see.
Well it has been long said that as we get older we should reverse the ratio of stocks to bonds from being more stocks heavy, to being more bonds heavy. But that too is very simplified and can vary depending on various factors.

First things first; increase your capital and your understanding.
There are numerous books, articles, audiobooks out there to help.
Even just a few hours a week will pay dividends months and years later :)
 
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Nowler

Experienced member
1,498 221
As you listen to more people you will come to value particular people in this space.
This is a little nudge in the right direction - https://soundcloud.com/superinvestors
This type of conversation format from the likes of Jessie Felder, Grant Williams etc are an amazing information resource.
I am not one to buy subscriptions, but I am going to pick up Grant Williams sub - https://www.grant-williams.com/

There are plenty of free conversation format resources out there though, so don't feel you have to go out and spend money.
If you are fine with spending a little money then getting the Market Wizards books is insanely good value for money.
I even found good value in Trade2Win's Audiobook (as a beginner) - and it supports the forum
 
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StockNewbie12

Junior member
20 5
As you listen to more people you will come to value particular people in this space.
This is a little nudge in the right direction - https://soundcloud.com/superinvestors
This type of conversation format from the likes of Jessie Felder, Grant Williams etc are an amazing information resource.
I am not one to buy subscriptions, but I am going to pick up Grant Williams sub - https://www.grant-williams.com/

There are plenty of free conversation format resources out there though, so don't feel you have to go out and spend money.
If you are fine with spending a little money then getting the Market Wizards books is insanely good value for money.
I even found good value in Trade2Win's Audiobook (as a beginner) - and it supports the forum
Yeah i bought a dutch book, basically investing for dummies haha and following a few youtube channels without crazy thumbnails and stupid emotional impulse hypes :D
 

Nowler

Experienced member
1,498 221
... and following a few youtube channels without crazy thumbnails and stupid emotional impulse hypes :D
Smart to avoid those.
You have entered the market in a very manic time - you can identify this not only by markets seemingly "always going up", but also by the amount of retail traders/investors acting like they are professionals. I saw 2 average Joe's on a TicToc video saying that their followers can live just like them. The "secret" is to buy when it's going up, and sell when it stops going up. Lol

The bust will sort all of those people out... just make sure it doesn't sort you out too :)

Beginning your investing journey at this stage of the cycle will shape the type of investor you become, and it will be dramatically different to someone that enters at the opposite end of the cycle. It's somewhat similar to someone beginning with some wins or beginning with some losses - it likely shapes your level of risk aversion and return expectation. At least to some degree...

Fascinating!
 

StockNewbie12

Junior member
20 5
Yeah that's why i'm in this for the long run. I have no doubt there will be a market crisis in these 25 years so i'm buying every month to average my buying price :) I don't think i can do any better then dollar cost averaging
 

Nowler

Experienced member
1,498 221
Yeah that's why i'm in this for the long run. I have no doubt there will be a market crisis in these 25 years so i'm buying every month to average my buying price :) I don't think i can do any better then dollar cost averaging
It will also help your portfolio growth if you know when to have more cash on hand to buy when things are cheap and unloved - e.g big corrections or crashes.

Personally I am now 100% invested as I spent the last of my cash on the recent corrections in the sectors I am interested - but now it means I have no more cash to benefit if prices fall further.

FOMO is a difficult beast to tame
 

StockNewbie12

Junior member
20 5
It will also help your portfolio growth if you know when to have more cash on hand to buy when things are cheap and unloved - e.g big corrections or crashes.

Personally I am now 100% invested as I spent the last of my cash on the recent corrections in the sectors I am interested - but now it means I have no more cash to benefit if prices fall further.

FOMO is a difficult beast to tame
I do have some cash extra that i will invest when i'm getting more confident in to the stock market. Also i'm really hoping that my salary will go up in the coming 25 years xD
 
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1nvest

Well-known member
304 108
I don't think i can do any better then dollar cost averaging
Let me show you how...
Firstly, if you hold on to an asset class "for the long term" you have to be able to sit through your investment dropping and dropping. had you held on SPY you would have been looking at >50%. I dont know many people who can honestly do that. if you can watch your money drop by those amounts, hats off to you.
however, if i show you this way, do you think you could do this?

The red line is buy and hold
The blue line is where total world equity is greater than the 10month SMA. Really really simple. couldn't get any easier. Close is greater than 10sma, buy. close less than 10sma hold the balance in cash
you're drawdown is now just 17% vs 51%. Have you beaten buy and hold? No, but you're not in the market 100% of the time as you are with the red line
View attachment 299628
Now, instead of holding in cash, and you move your money to something going up. in the next case, we move our money to Bonds. total world bond index instead of cash. Now you are beating buy and hold with a fraction of the drawdown.
View attachment 299629

Still think you cant do better than dollar cast averaging?? come on, how difficult is that. every month compare your equity to a simple moving average.
now if you invest $100 extra per month...
View attachment 299630
and this just for starters. you can p1ss all over dollar cost averaging believeme
blue line is the most simple timing indicator there is. still beats warren buffet
 

StockNewbie12

Junior member
20 5
Let me show you how...
Firstly, if you hold on to an asset class "for the long term" you have to be able to sit through your investment dropping and dropping. had you held on SPY you would have been looking at >50%. I dont know many people who can honestly do that. if you can watch your money drop by those amounts, hats off to you.
however, if i show you this way, do you think you could do this?

The red line is buy and hold
The blue line is where total world equity is greater than the 10month SMA. Really really simple. couldn't get any easier. Close is greater than 10sma, buy. close less than 10sma hold the balance in cash
you're drawdown is now just 17% vs 51%. Have you beaten buy and hold? No, but you're not in the market 100% of the time as you are with the red line
View attachment 299628
Now, instead of holding in cash, and you move your money to something going up. in the next case, we move our money to Bonds. total world bond index instead of cash. Now you are beating buy and hold with a fraction of the drawdown.
View attachment 299629

Still think you cant do better than dollar cast averaging?? come on, how difficult is that. every month compare your equity to a simple moving average.
now if you invest $100 extra per month...
View attachment 299630
and this just for starters. you can p1ss all over dollar cost averaging believeme
blue line is the most simple timing indicator there is. still beats warren buffet
Uggh, the attachements won't load :( can you message me your screenshots personally or something on this forum?
 

1nvest

Well-known member
304 108
Uggh, the attachements won't load :( can you message me your screenshots personally or something on this forum?
Here you go, first image is comparing an Equity (such as total world index) to an SMA
Second image is now instead of holding it in cash, you choose an asset class (bonds) that is inversely correlated to equity
and lastly third image is using dollar cost averaging for both. just $100

your drawdown is now far far more tolerable
15% drawdown and 15% average annual growth.
in a nutshell, Dalio forms the basis of asset classes, then simple timing makes it far far more effective.
 

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CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,523 1,950
Cutting past drawdown with a moving average is supereasy, avoiding future drawdown is superdifficult.
That is the reason 99% of traders fail to beat spx500, even professional hedge funds.
Dalio is very efficient, no need to time the market.
 

1nvest

Well-known member
304 108
Cutting past drawdown with a moving average is supereasy, avoiding future drawdown is superdifficult.
That is the reason 99% of traders fail to beat spx500, even professional hedge funds.
Dalio is very efficient, no need to time the market.
agreed, doesn't mean you sit there though watching your balance erode away; thats a fool's game
 

CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,523 1,950
Second image is now instead of holding it in cash, you choose an asset class (bonds) that is inversely correlated to equity
Even better than this you can use Dual Momentum strategy.
The point is that I found many backtests of dual momentum but no live trackrecord.
While Dalio is really investing a lot of money with all weather I never found other managers timing the market.
 
 
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