Starting a trading journal based on my understanding of Wyckoff's work

moreina

Junior member
43 1
Thanks DB!

Will re-read those sections of the book.

In the meantime, as the current trade has gone against me and has invalidated the previous analysis, and reason, for me to enter the trade, we are closing our position at a loss.

Will make some annotations on the chart and post for further comments after reviewing the material.



Regarding the line graph, is it better to use an average of the high/low/close or go purely with the close? They can differ quite a bit sometimes and my thinking is that HLC is more accurate since it represents more of the total price action rather than the close which is a snapshot in time.
 
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dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,952 1,251
I don't use a line graph for myself. I use it only when I'm discussing charts and want to focus on price movement rather than bars or candles. This is particularly useful when trying to perceive the waves. When one is near or at the point of entering a trade, the HLC information in a bar for each day can be useful, particularly with climactic moves.

I prefer an average of the HLC if the program provides it, but some people prefer the close. I don't know that it matters, particularly if one is beginning - as one should - with a weekly chart.

Db
 

moreina

Junior member
43 1
I've made an analysis of the first trading range of VEEV on the weekly. Comments are based on my following the action bar-by-bar, as if I were observing in real-time, not analyzing bar-by-bar action ala VSA. I've tried to detail each area where the bulls showed they started taking control, attempts of the bears to take it back, etc.

 
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moreina

Junior member
43 1
Hey DB. When you talk about the actions and thoughts of those who consider price without looking at the charts, are you talking about the higher timeframe traders, aka "the money"?

Here's some further analysis on the next area on the weekly where VEEV reversed, I've tried to see "feel" the pressure of supply and demand based on the price areas, spread, and activity, and also see the supply and demand lines not as lines but as real-time areas where price turns around, therefore signalling the "intent" of both sides. Also, I've tried separating the intent of the shorter and longer timeframe traders based on what price does when volume is significantly higher.

 

dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,952 1,251
Hey DB. When you talk about the actions and thoughts of those who consider price without looking at the charts, are you talking about the higher timeframe traders, aka "the money"?

Lots of people don't use charts. They don't care about the information charts provide. They know what they paid and where price is in relation to that, and that's all they want to know. The daily ups and downs are of no interest to them.

266163


266164
 

paaddict

Newbie
1 0
I have been reading your thread moreina. Nice approach.
 

moreina

Junior member
43 1
Annotating DB's Sextych. Last two screens are left un-annotated since they just confirm the previous analysis, except the last one shows that price has started ranging after the technical rally.



sextych1.gif
 

moreina

Junior member
43 1
Tracking nickel futures. Weekly followed by daily. Currently at previous resistance but price is not being pushed back so we could be seeing a move to the upside in the near future.

 

moreina

Junior member
43 1
Crude Palm Oil futures. Similar to Nickel, we seem to be at resistance but price is not falling so our hypothesis is on-going absorption. Weekly followed by daily

 

moreina

Junior member
43 1
Philippine index. Weekly followed by daily. Looking at a reaction due to heavy selling at the top and price currently hesitating at previous high.


Which brings us to Cebu land masters. Weekly shows a distribution, followed by a massive drop into an oversold condition and now a quick bounce to the previous distribution area. Not enough accumulation has happened to push price beyond this point and the advance also signals an overbought condition. Expecting a significant reaction.

 

moreina

Junior member
43 1
This week shows massive volume at the previous resistance area, combined with the overbought state, make this a ripe area for a short following the expectation of a significant reaction.

The daily shows climactic volume a few days ago, and price has started to reverse.

30 minute shows the buying wave has started to turn, so we put a sell stop at 5.08, 1 cent below the current price of 5.09, and the stop loss at 5.16.

TRADE triggered. We are now short at 5.08 and the market declined to 5.00 and is now rallying, currently at 5.04. A normal reaction would around 5.07 so now we watch to see where this rally will take us. We won't move our stop until we see a clear indication of a resistance point.
30 minute:

Daily:

UPDATE:
The index has now turned bullish and seems to be accumulating at the bottom:

The daily chart has also shown signs of bullishness given the reduced volume at the bottom and rising support.

This is clearly seen in the 30 minute chart:

We therefore close our short opened at 5.08 and go long at 4.98 with a stop at 4.81.
Profit 1.9%, or $198 on 50,000 shares.
 
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