Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134
For the watchlist from the Wednesdays scans of the US stockmarket - AAXN, EHTH, EVER, FLT, GDXJ, GOLD, JBLU, KBH, LX, PLG, SMAR, SWCH

Note: Gold and the Junior Miners are consolidating near their recent highs. Potential for a new breakout attempt.

The charts can be found at: Stocks Watchlist - 22nd January 2020

 

isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134
Weekend update of the major US stock market indexes and indicators. A weekly look beneath the surface of the US stock market, featuring the key market breadth charts for timing trading stocks and the stock market indexes, such as the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, the Advance Decline Line, the New Highs - New Lows etc and some custom breadth indicators of my own in order to determine what the "Weight of Evidence" is suggesting in terms of the US stock market direction and how to allocate your money.

This is done using the market breadth indicators that were highlighted in Chapter 8 of Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets Book – which was called: Using the Best Long Term Indicators to Spot Bull and Bear Markets.


Subscribe to the Stage Analysis YouTube Channel for all the latest videos here: Subscribe to the stageanalysis youtube channel
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134

I've been keeping a written trading journal on stageanalysis.net since 2013, where I've documented all of my trades, warts and all. Which has helped me to learn from my mistakes, and has forced me to stick to my trading rules and avoid making impulsive trades that don't meet my risk requirements.

I trade mostly using the Stage Analysis method, which was made popular in the classic stock trading book – Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets. But I've read lots of other trading books over the years, and so have developed my own preferences and so don't follow a strict interpretation the method.

However, it does make up around 80% of how I trade, and was the reason I finally stopped losing money, and instead started to grow my account, as it helped me to focus on the quality of the trades that I was making, and changed the way I look at stock charts forever.

I currently trade two different types of account.

The first is a short term trading account, where I mostly make trade stocks listed in the US stock market, with an average holding time of around 1 to 2 months. Although I'll exit trades early if they don't behave as I was expecting.

The second is a longer-term investment account, where I trade in stocks and etfs. Although I'm more limited in what I can trade in that account as it's via special type of pension account that we have in the UK called a SIPP, which means a self-invested personal pension.

My trading style is mainly breakouts, and I focus on what is known in Stage Analysis as the Stage 2 Advancing Phase.

I favour stocks that are in their already in their advancing Phase, and had strong Stage 2 breakouts on heavy relative volume, which expanded as the stock rose, and then contracted on the pull backs.

I also look for a stock that has strong relative performance versus the market, which must be outperforming following the breakout.

It should also be clear of any near term resistance – by which I mean, it should be near to its 52 week highs, and not its 52 week lows.

As I'm looking to buy high, and sell higher instead of the buy low, sell high cliché that is consistently talked about in the financial media.

This is not the only criteria, as I also look at sector strength and lot more. But it is the core of the method and hopefully gives you a rough idea of how I trade.

But if you want to know more, you can read my entire journal from 2013 until today in the forum, called isa's SIPP Pension Journal, which can be found in the Members Threads section on the site.

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isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134
US MARKET BREADTH. Where Will the Market Go Next? Trading Using the ‘WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE’

With the market in pullback mode with multiple US Indexes dropping sharply and Treasuries and Gold breaking out in new Stage 2 continuations. I take a look beneath the surface of the US stock market, featuring the key market breadth charts for timing trading stocks and the stock market indexes, such as the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, the Advance Decline Line, the New Highs - New Lows etc and some custom breadth indicators of my own in order to determine what the "Weight of Evidence" is suggesting in terms of the US stock market direction and how to allocate your money.


Quick Links in the Video:
  • Time the US Stock Market Using the Market Breadth Indicators – Introduction (0:00)
  • Major Market Indexes – S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq 100 & S&P 600 Small Caps (1:12)
  • US Treasuries & Commodities – 7-10 Year US Treasuries, Gold, Crude Oil & Copper (2:57)
  • NYSE Bullish Percent Index & Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts (4:59)
  • NYSE Advance Decline Line Charts (7:12)
  • US New Highs - New Lows Charts & Momentum Index (9:05)
  • Cumulative Point & Figure Breakouts - Breakdowns (10:04)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Relative Strength Table (10:58)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Line Chart and Overview Diagram (12:18)
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134

This week saw a number of major stock market indexes attempt to breakout to new highs. However, only the Nasdaq indexes managed to breakout and hold to the end of the week. Whereas under the surface various market breadth indicators, like the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, and some of the NYSE Advance Decline Line indicator charts showed divergences with the price action, and so started to flash some warning signs that the move higher doesn't have the same level of participation as previously. And so suggests a more cautious strategy.

Subscribe to the Stage Analysis YouTube Channel for all the latest videos here: Subscribe to the stageanalysis youtube channel

Quick Links
  • Timing the US Stock Market Using the Market Breadth Indicators – Introduction (0:00)
  • Major Market Indexes – S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq 100 & S&P 600 Small Caps (0:57)
  • US Treasuries & Commodities – 7-10 Year US Treasuries, Gold, Crude Oil & Copper (2:40)
  • NYSE Bullish Percent Index & Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts (4:10)
  • NYSE Advance Decline Line Charts (6:40)
  • US New Highs - New Lows Charts & Momentum Index (8:48)
  • Cumulative Point & Figure Breakouts - Breakdowns (9:43)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Relative Strength Table (10:19)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Overview Diagram (11:04)

----------------

A regular look beneath the surface of the US stock market, featuring the key market breadth indicator charts for timing trading stocks and the stock market indexes, such as the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, the Advance Decline Line, the New Highs - New Lows etc and some custom breadth indicators of my own in order to determine what the "Weight of Evidence" is suggesting in terms of the US stock market direction and how to allocate your money.

This is done using the market breadth indicators that were highlighted in Chapter 8 of Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets Book – which was called: Using the Best Long Term Indicators to Spot Bull and Bear Markets.
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134

Quick Links
  • Timing the US Stock Market Using the Market Breadth Indicators – Introduction (0:00)
  • Major Market Indexes – S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq 100 & S&P 600 Small Caps (1:03)
  • US Treasuries & Commodities – 7-10 Year US Treasuries, Gold, Crude Oil & Copper (3:30)
  • NYSE Bullish Percent Index & Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts (5:38)
  • Definitions of the Current Market Breadth Status (8:05)
  • NYSE Advance Decline Line Charts (8:39)
  • US New Highs - New Lows Charts & Momentum Index (10:20)
  • Cumulative Point & Figure Breakouts - Breakdowns (11:04)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Relative Strength Table (12:29)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Overview Diagram (13:23)
Subscribe to the Stage Analysis YouTube Channel for all the latest videos here: Subscribe to the stageanalysis youtube channel

The major stock market indexes attempted to breakout to new highs again this week, but failed, and turned down to end the week near their lows. In contrast US treasuries made a Stage 2 continuation breakout to new highs, as did Gold on some reasonable volume, and the Gold miners. So I took a position in Gold in my pension account.

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index and Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts continue to show divergences with the price action, with fewer stocks participating while the market makes new highs. This can often continue for a long while, but at some point with fewer and fewer stocks holding up the market, it will cause a problem.

The Advance Decline Line and New Highs, New Lows remain on bullish signal though, as does the Cumulative Point & Figure Breakouts minus Breakdowns chart.

So the current weight of evidence from the combined market breadth indicators signals a neutral + stance in my opinion. So a cautious strategy seems sensible currently, as the market is extended short term still, but that doesn't mean it can't still go higher again, as it's a bull market after all. But protect your account.
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134
US Stock Market Breadth – Quickest 10% Decline From an All-Time High in History


Quick Links
  • Timing the US Stock Market Using the Market Breadth Indicators – Introduction (0:00)
  • Major Market Indexes – S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq 100 & S&P 600 Small Caps (0:10)
  • Relative Performance (2:23)
  • US Treasuries & Commodities – 7-10 Year US Treasuries, Gold, Crude Oil & Copper (3:30)
  • NYSE Bullish Percent Index & Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts (5:49)
  • NYSE Advance Decline Line Charts (9:42)
  • US New Highs - New Lows Charts & Momentum Index (11:46)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Relative Strength Table (12:50)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Overview Diagram (13:22)
Subscribe to the Stage Analysis YouTube Channel for all the latest videos here: Subscribe to the stageanalysis youtube channel

This weeks moves in US stock market indexes and individual stocks confirmed what the market breadth indicators have been warning over the last month. However, the pullback has been much sharper than anyone could have predicted and so it looks like we've put in at least a medium term top imo, and not just a short term top, as there was a huge amount of technical damage done to the stock market indexes and individual stock charts, with almost half of the market having a breakdown of some kind this week. With stocks moving from Stage 2 straight into Stage 4. As many had closes well below their 30 week and 200 day MAs, and wiped out around half a years worth of gains or more.

So the question is, are we in for more selling, with a potential 1987 panic selloff after such dramatic falls in record time from the highs. Or are we near to a short term low that could produce a sharp bounce back in the stock market?

----------------

A regular look beneath the surface of the US stock market, featuring the key market breadth indicator charts for timing trading stocks and the stock market indexes, such as the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, the Advance Decline Line, the New Highs - New Lows etc and some custom breadth indicators of my own in order to determine what the "Weight of Evidence" is suggesting in terms of the US stock market direction and how to allocate your money.

This is done using the market breadth indicators that were highlighted in Chapter 8 of Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets Book – which was called: Using the Best Long Term Indicators to Spot Bull and Bear Markets.
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134

Subscribe to the Stage Analysis YouTube Channel for all the latest videos here: Subscribe to the stageanalysis youtube channel

Quick Links
  • Timing the US Stock Market Using the Market Breadth Indicators – Introduction (0:00)
  • Major Market Indexes – S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq 100 & S&P 600 Small Caps (1:04)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Overview Diagram (4:12)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Relative Strength Table (5:28)
  • US Treasuries & Commodities – 7-10 Year US Treasuries, Gold, Crude Oil & Copper (6:55)
  • GOLD vs S&P 500 Ratio – 30 Year Chart (10:09)
  • US 10 Year Treasuries vs S&P 500 Ratio – 20 Year Chart (11:08)
  • NYSE Bullish Percent Index & Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts (12:05)
  • NYSE Advance Decline Line Charts (15:40)
  • US New Highs - New Lows Charts & Momentum Index (17:03)
  • Cumulative Point & Figure Breakouts - Breakdowns Chart (19:13)
  • Overview of the Weight of Evidence (20:33)

The stock market saw another week of heavy selling, taking multiple indexes down to extreme levels, with liquidation type selling across the board, even in previous safe havens such as treasuries and spot gold. Although there was some respite with a strong relief rally on Friday at the end of the day, recovering around 10% in some of the major indexes.

However, we remain in a Stage 4 downtrend (for an explanation of the four Stages – see Stan Weinstein's classic book or visit the forum on stageanalysis.net, which has numerous examples to help learn the method), with only 7% of the stocks in the NYSE and 12% of stocks in the Nasdaq trading above their 200 day moving average, and only around 5% trading above their short term 50 day moving average.

The video also highlights some longer term charts, with 20 year charts of the NYSE Bullish Percent Index & Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages. Plus the 20 year chart of the US New Highs - New Lows to help give some context to where we are in comparison to other periods.

We may have put in a low, but also we might not have yet. As the extreme levels we are seeing in some of the market breadth charts were only seen around the end months of 2008. Which was a swing low, but not the ultimate low, which didn't come until 3 or 4 months later in March 2009. So although we've gotten to these breadth extremes much faster. We are probably in for a volatile ride for a while yet, with over 90% of stocks in Stage 4, as of this week, even with the bounce on Friday.

----------------

A regular look beneath the surface of the US stock market, featuring the key market breadth indicator charts for timing trading stocks and the stock market indexes, such as the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, the Advance Decline Line, the New Highs - New Lows etc and some custom breadth indicators of my own in order to determine what the "Weight of Evidence" is suggesting in terms of the US stock market direction and how to allocate your money.

This is done using the market breadth indicators that were highlighted in Chapter 8 of Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets Book – which was called: Using the Best Long Term Indicators to Spot Bull and Bear Markets.
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134

Quick Links:
  • Timing the US Stock Market Using the Market Breadth Indicators – Introduction (0:00)
  • Major Market Indexes – S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq 100 & S&P 600 Small Caps (0:21)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Overview Diagram (3:52)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Relative Strength Table (5:10)
  • US Treasuries & Commodities – 7-10 Year US Treasuries, Gold, Crude Oil & Copper (5:51)
  • NYSE Bullish Percent Index & Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts (7:45)
  • NYSE Advance Decline Line Charts (11:17)
  • US New Highs - New Lows Charts & Momentum Index (12:57)
  • Cumulative Point & Figure Breakouts - Breakdowns Chart (14:14)
  • Overview of the Weight of Evidence (15:45)
It was a strong week for the major stock market indexes with multiple stock index charts (including the S&P 500, DOW Industrials and the Nasdaq 100) all closing the week with a bullish engulfing candle pattern on the weekly charts. There were also positive moves in some of the short term Market Breadth charts, with NYSE Bullish Percent Index giving a Bull Alert Signal after its largest positive weekly move that I can remember. And some positives in the short term Advance Decline Momentum Index and McClellan Oscillator which both had breakouts from the their recent ranges back above their zero lines.

However, although there are some short term positives. The majority of medium and longer term market breadth indicators remain on bearish signals, with some like the percentage of stocks above their 150 day moving average at deeply oversold levels still. Which could take a while to resolve, as many stocks have fallen a long way below their moving averages in the past few weeks, and so there is a chance that the oversold state could remain in place for months before their is a medium to long term bullish signal – especially if stocks go into a choppy sideways phase from here.

----------------

A regular look beneath the surface of the US stock market, featuring the key market breadth indicator charts for timing trading stocks and the stock market indexes, such as the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, the Advance Decline Line, the New Highs - New Lows etc and some custom breadth indicators of my own in order to determine what the "Weight of Evidence" is suggesting in terms of the US stock market direction and how to allocate your money.

This is done using the market breadth indicators that were highlighted in Chapter 8 of Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets Book – which was called: Using the Best Long Term Indicators to Spot Bull and Bear Markets.
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134

Quick Links
  • Timing the US Stock Market Using the Market Breadth Indicators – Introduction (0:00)
  • Major Market Indexes – S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq 100 & S&P 600 Small Caps (0:37)
  • US Treasuries & Commodities – 7-10 Year US Treasuries, Gold, Crude Oil & Copper (2:40)
  • 40 Year Unemployment Rate compared to the S&P 500 (3:55)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Overview Diagram (9:52)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Relative Strength Table (11:26)
  • NYSE Bullish Percent Index & Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts (13:05)
  • NYSE Advance Decline Line Charts (20:30)
  • US New Highs - New Lows Charts & Momentum Index (22:19)
  • Cumulative Point & Figure Breakouts - Breakdowns Chart (24:19)
  • Overview of the Four Stages (26:04)
The stock market had a strong thrust higher over the last week, with most of the major indexes recovering up to 50% level of the entire breakdown. However, this is a typical area that pullbacks often find resistance and so it will be interesting to see how they react over the next week.

Many of the short term market breadth indicators continued to gain strength and multiple are now on bullish signals. However, the medium and longer term signals mostly remain on bearish signals, with some struggling to make much headway from their extreme low levels such as the NYSE percentage of stocks above their 150 day moving averages and the cumulative new highs new lows for example.

This week I wanted to have deeper dive into some longer term charts, and one area that especially caught my eye was the Unemployment Rate compared to the S&P 500 over time as the Unemployment rate has spiked recently. So, I've marked up long term chart, which shows what has happened during the past four times that it has started trending higher in the past 40 years. What it shows is that in 3 out 4 of the periods when the unemployment rate trended higher. That the stock market didn't bottom for around 18 months, but then recovered back into Stage 2 while the unemployment rate continued higher for a while before topping out and starting to trend lower again. So although only a small amount of data points. It does show a 75% chance of a more major Stage 4 decline from here.

This is only one data point though, as in the Stage Analysis method we use the Weight of Evidence technique to combine what all the various market breadth charts are telling us. But I do think it's an interesting addition to our Weight of Evidence to keep an eye on.

----------------

A regular look beneath the surface of the US stock market, featuring the key market breadth indicator charts for timing trading stocks and the stock market indexes, such as the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, the Advance Decline Line, the New Highs - New Lows etc and some custom breadth indicators of my own in order to determine what the "Weight of Evidence" is suggesting in terms of the US stock market direction and how to allocate your money.

This is done using the market breadth indicators that were highlighted in Chapter 8 of Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets Book – which was called: Using the Best Long Term Indicators to Spot Bull and Bear Markets.


Subscribe to the Stage Analysis YouTube Channel for all the latest videos here: Subscribe to the stageanalysis youtube channel
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134

0:00 Timing the US Stock Market Using the Market Breadth Indicators – Introduction
1:05 Major Market Indexes – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average & S&P 600 Small Caps
4:27 US Treasuries & Commodities – 7-10 Year US Treasuries, Gold, Crude Oil & Copper
6:35 Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Overview Diagram
7:56 Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Relative Strength Table
8:49 NYSE Bullish Percent Index & Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts
10:34 NYSE Advance Decline Line Charts
12:41 US New Highs - New Lows Charts & Momentum Index
13:24 Gold Miners Watchlist – $NEM, $GOLD, $FNV, $AUY, $RGLD, $AU, $AEM, $SAND
15:24 Bitcoin: in focus – a look at the monthly, weekly, daily and intraday charts as Bitcoin recovers to Stage 1
22:53 Roundup

The major US stock market indexes are once again at a potential turning point, with multiple failed breakout attempts over the last week in individual stocks and the market indexes themselves, which caused them to close slightly down on the week. But with a large wick on the upper part of the candle which is often bearish. But needs confirmation still.

Multiple market breadth indicators remains on short term positive signals, but the majority of medium and long term signals have failed to materialise during the recent rally, and so the Weight of Evidence remains tilted to the bearish side still i.e. the major trend is still down for the time being, as we remain in Stage 4 in the overall market even with the recent bounce (Nasdaq 100 is the exception to this). Although, that could quickly change if the bears don't manage to push the market down from here, as many of those medium term breadth measures are getting closer to potential signal changes.

My focus in the coming weeks is going to be on the Gold Miners, as I think that they are an area of the market that could continue to show outperformance – whatever the direction of the broad market. Although they could be hit with some selling pressure too if the market does sell off. So I will need to stay nimble, and consider risk first before any trades.

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Weekend update of the major US stock market indexes and indicators. A weekly look beneath the surface of the US stock market, featuring the key market breadth charts for timing trading stocks and the stock market indexes, such as the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, the Advance Decline Line, the New Highs - New Lows etc and some custom breadth indicators of my own in order to determine what the "Weight of Evidence" is suggesting in terms of the US stock market direction and how to allocate your money.

Subscribe to the Stage Analysis YouTube Channel for all the latest videos here: Subscribe to the stageanalysis youtube channel
 

mucked4u

Newbie
1 0
I've also started a new youtube channel this week for Stage Analysis where I'll be posting my daily US and Canadian watchlist stocks and potentially some market breadth on the weekends once I've found my feet with it. Here's the video from yesterdays US watchlist.

For the watchlist from Mondays scans - CAE, CIBR, COUP, DDOG, DT, EHTH, FEYE, HACK, INSG, INSP, JELD, JOUT, MIME, NVST, PLUG, SWCH, TEAM, TRGP, TTD, VNET, VRNS

The charts can be found at: US and Canadian Stocks Watchlist - 6th January 2020

Please subscribe to the youtube channel if you like it

Cheers
isatrader

 

isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134

Quick Links:
  • Timing the US Stock Market Using the Market Breadth Indicators – Introduction (0:00)
  • Major Market Indexes – S&P 500, Nasdaq, NYSE & S&P 600 Small Caps (1:05)
  • US Treasuries & Commodities – 7-10 Year US Treasuries, Gold, Crude Oil & Copper (3:48)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Relative Strength Table (5:57)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Overview Diagram (8:04)
  • NYSE Bullish Percent Index & Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts (9:35)
  • NYSE Advance Decline Line Charts (12:19)
  • US New Highs - New Lows Charts & Momentum Index (14:44)
  • IN FOCUS: Gold & Silver Miners Sector – Multiple Breakouts in the Sector (15:59)
A number of the key market breadth indicators weakened this week, with moves back to bearish signals in multiple indicators that had been positive for the last month or so, like the NYSE Bullish Percent Index which moved back to Bear Confirmed status on the 13th https://twitter.com/stageanalysis/sta... and multiple individual sector bullish percent index charts on the 14th https://twitter.com/stageanalysis/sta... and other breadth measures also moved back to bear signals like the McClellan Oscillator and McClellan Summation Index.

So with multiple signal changes like this, it downgrades the recent market breadth status from a short term positive, long term negative status, to a more short term neutral, long term negative status. Hence, the Weight of Evidence shifts back to a Neutral status, with a weighting more towards the negative currently.

So caution is required here, as unless the short term breadth indicators that turned down this week immediately recover back to bullish signals, then the risk of a pullback goes up dramatically. So stay alert and especially don't chase stocks that are extended from their proper buy points, as a risk of a market pullback is increased here.

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Weekend update of the major US stock market indexes and indicators. A weekly look beneath the surface of the US stock market, featuring the key market breadth charts for timing trading stocks and the stock market indexes, such as the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, the Advance Decline Line, the New Highs - New Lows etc and some custom breadth indicators of my own in order to determine what the "Weight of Evidence" is suggesting in terms of the US stock market direction and how to allocate your money.

Subscribe to the Stage Analysis YouTube Channel for all the latest videos here: Subscribe to the stageanalysis youtube channel
 
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isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134

Quick Links:
  • Timing the US Stock Market Using the Market Breadth Indicators – Introduction (0:00)
  • Major Market Indexes – S&P 500, Nasdaq, NYSE & S&P 600 Small Caps (0:58)
  • US Treasuries & Commodities – 7-10 Year US Treasuries, Gold, Crude Oil & Copper (5:13)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Relative Strength Table (7:20)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Overview Diagram (9:14)
  • NYSE Bullish Percent Index & Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts (9:55)
  • IN FOCUS: US Combined Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts (11:45)
  • NYSE Advance Decline Line Charts (16:09)
  • US New Highs - New Lows Charts & Momentum Index (18:36)
  • 40 Year S&P 500 Chart Compared With Trending Higher Unemployment Rate (19:28)
  • NYSE Percentage of Stocks Above Their 50 Day Moving Average minus the NYSE Percentage of Stocks Above Their
  • 200 Day Moving Average. Historical Comparisons of Extremes (21:21)
This week saw a huge shakeout in the leadership stocks with numerous tech and healthcare stocks dropping up to -20% in a just a few days from their highs. However, there is a chance that it was just a shakeout by the markets in order to let the larger players load up on the stronger stocks at a lower price. But this opinion now needs confirmation, as although some traders jumped back in immediately on the assumption of a shakeout. The price action of many stocks that got hit failed to recover with much strength, and still closed the week significantly lower than the previous week, even though they recovered half or more of the drop.

So there's a lot of leading stocks with weekly bars that have long tails. Which is a reversal pattern that shows the stock found support. But this will now need confirmation, by price making a move above last weeks high, and then a daily close above it, which should be accompanied by stronger volume.

The market breadth recovered from the weakness that I highlighted a few weeks back with the shakeout this week, and so is back on mostly short term bullish signals, with the longer term data continuing to improve

=======================

Weekend update of the major US stock market indexes and indicators. A weekly look beneath the surface of the US stock market, featuring the key market breadth charts for timing trading stocks and the stock market indexes, such as the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, the Advance Decline Line, the New Highs - New Lows etc and some custom breadth indicators of my own in order to determine what the "Weight of Evidence" is suggesting in terms of the US stock market direction and how to allocate your money.

Subscribe to the Stage Analysis YouTube Channel for all the latest videos here: Subscribe to the stageanalysis youtube channel
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,963 134

Quick Links:
  • Major Market Indexes – S&P 500, Nasdaq, NYSE & S&P 600 Small Caps (0:00)
  • US Treasuries & Commodities – 7-10 Year US Treasuries, Gold, Crude Oil & Copper (3:21)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Relative Strength Table (5:25)
  • Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving Average – Overview Diagram (6:18)
  • NYSE & Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index (7:04)
  • NYSE Bullish Percent Index & Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts (9:03)
  • US Combined Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200, 150 & 50 Day Moving Averages Charts (11:35)
  • NYSE Advance Decline Line Charts (15:30)
  • US New Highs - New Lows Charts & Momentum Index (19:08)
  • NYSE Percentage of Stocks Above Their 50 Day Moving Average minus the NYSE Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200 Day Moving Average. Historical Comparisons of Extremes (21:29)
  • VIX Volatility Index (25:00)
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Weekend update of the major US stock market indexes and indicators. A weekly look beneath the surface of the US stock market, featuring the key market breadth charts for timing trading stocks and the stock market indexes, such as the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, the Advance Decline Line, the New Highs - New Lows etc and some custom breadth indicators of my own in order to determine what the "Weight of Evidence" is suggesting in terms of the US stock market direction and how to allocate your money.

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