SPX500 Target with Short Term Map

[Autobottrading]

In March of 2009 the SPX 500 reached multiple time frame support, all the way out to quarterly measurements of price. This support structure on a quarterly basis related directly with the 1974 bear market low as we measure support. The lower rectangle represents this support. The upper box represents a "reversion to the mean", on a monthly basis using the 2000 peak as well as the 2007 high and measurements of the ranges of price in the collapse. Price should meet 1234.44 cash in time and when it does we would expect a decline to 1000 SPX support. How it arrives there and if it holds will be determined using the short time frame series as price declines. In May of 2009, I was meeting with various principles and managers of investment/hedge funds interested in our software's predictive capabilities and consulting with several about their interest in getting into quant driven trading operations. Several of these managers, approached me and asked if the software/I thought the decline was over. The fear then was palatable. Of course everyone I met was under their high water marks and were worried they wouldn't make it through. Though I felt ridiculous saying the SPX 500 should see 1230's (price was 880's at the time) luckily I acted on the software's outputs not my gut feel. From a long term perspective, my gut has been wrong for over a year and I still do not see any possibility of the market reaching 1234's. But it likely it will.....

How will price get there? Autobot's Advance/Decline indicator crossed back up last week, but it is overbought and an immiediate cross down from these levels can result in a sharp move. Due to the daily ranges recently and inability to thrust higher into medium term resistance, we expect by Tuesday, the market will correct to 1157 and potentially to 1129 over next 10 days. A gap Monday will likely be sold. Autobottrading is long SDS, ad short TGT and EBAY.

http://www.autobottrading.com/blog

 

[Autobottrading]

Follow up to weekend commentary posted. We remain short June Emini SP's, and long Gold via GLD on swing time frame basis. Short EURUSD intraday from 1.3380. Looking for a 20 pips. Still believe 1.31 is next target in time.

http://www.autobottrading.com/blog/

 

[Autobottrading]

On April 4th we posted a longer term look at the SP500 with a short term map. The Autobot Advance Decline did get overbought on Monday’s rally and crossed down leading to today’s corrective price behavior, as suggested. In doing so, the advance decline tool has move towards oversold levels at much higher price levels than anticipated. Though the indicator is not oversold as yet, and price can move lower, the 1059 area looks unlikely now. More likely, if further selling were to occur, a move to 1068 basis June ES is more likely, prior to a rally to new highs. We remain short, but targets have moved higher as posted.

http://www.autobottrading.com