Spread Betting the Wall Street Rolling Daily

Hi

Day 7 and my system suggests Shorting the Dow.

It is just gone 9 am and the Dow is at about 10171.

I am already in from last Friday - £10/10 pips short @ 10041 (ouch!).

During the early hours (2.30am) I came close my mental stop when the Dow peaked at 10224. Was beginning to think that my end was near, but not to be(for now at least).

Mobanded
 
mobanded said:
Hi

Day 7 and my system suggests Shorting the Dow.

It is just gone 9 am and the Dow is at about 10171.

I am already in from last Friday - £10/10 pips short @ 10041 (ouch!).

During the early hours (2.30am) I came close my mental stop when the Dow peaked at 10224. Was beginning to think that my end was near, but not to be(for now at least).

Mobanded
Click to expand...

Another close call, eh, Mob?
 
mobanded said:

. . . so if such a trade is open at the time I take the following day's forecast, then the open trade takes precedence over the forecast (but only until such time as I can get out with a profit).Plain as mud!

I haven't yet had a situation were a conflict has arisen, but if there was, the open trade will take precedence.
Click to expand...
Hi mob',
There are two things that impress me about you:-
1. Your willingness to answer politely all the various points and questions put to you, even though some of them are pretty critical. This is quite a rare quality.
2. Your ability to consider and reject conventional wisdom. This is a good approach in that you're more likely to end up doing something different from the infamous 90% that allegedly fail.
So, all credit to you on both counts.

If I were in your shoes, I would struggle a bit with point No. 2 . Here's another example as to why. Convention wisdom suggests that if you're in a long trade and a fresh signal is triggered indicating a new short trade, then most traders would conclude that the circumstances have changed from when they first entered the trade and would either close it or stop and reverse to go short. To stick with the existing trade in the face of evidence to do the contrary is most unusual. 10 out of 10 for not doing what everyone else would do - but I have to say that I don't begin to understand your logic!
Tim.
 
barjon said:
Mo

Better stick another tenner on then, might as well break all the rules :D


jon
Click to expand...

Hi jon

Thanks for the musical.

I like your idea of slapping another tenner on; perhaps I'll double my account amount and try it out ! NO NO NO NO NO but maybe.

Mobanded
 
timsk said:
Hi mob',
There are two things that impress me about you:-
1. Your willingness to answer politely all the various points and questions put to you, even though some of them are pretty critical. This is quite a rare quality.
2. Your ability to consider and reject conventional wisdom. This is a good approach in that you're more likely to end up doing something different from the infamous 90% that allegedly fail.
So, all credit to you on both counts.

If I were in your shoes, I would struggle a bit with point No. 2 . Here's another example as to why. Convention wisdom suggests that if you're in a long trade and a fresh signal is triggered indicating a new short trade, then most traders would conclude that the circumstances have changed from when they first entered the trade and would either close it or stop and reverse to go short. To stick with the existing trade in the face of evidence to do the contrary is most unusual. 10 out of 10 for not doing what everyone else would do - but I have to say that I don't begin to understand your logic!
Tim.
Click to expand...

Hi Tim

I really am taking seriously my need for a stop loss that I can place my trust in and an indicator that will let me know when to get out.

Last night/this early morning when I knew it was going to be an all night session, I decided to download from Amazon a trading book that appealed to me. If I didn't know this book was written many years ago I would have sworn this guy had nicked my system indicator. I have read only the first chapter and I am very very excited with it. Not only is the book describing my/his/the world's system but he eleborates with additional indicators to give high probability trades. He also gives a method to produce an indication of a pullback or a continuation. Finally, he gives strict stop loss techniques. As I say, I am excited.

At some point I will advertise this book but it will not be for discussion as a forum thread. The guy who wrote it deserves the royalties from his book sales.

Mobanded
 
mobanded said:
Hi Tim

I really am taking seriously my need for a stop loss that I can place my trust in and an indicator that will let me know when to get out.


Yes, good idea.


Last night/this early morning when I knew it was going to be an all night session,

Mobanded
Click to expand...

As I see it, the only thing in favour of a strategy with wide stops is that you don't need to spend so much time staring at charts, so why stay up all night if you have no plans to close a losing trade and you know your position will be closed automatically at about -200pt?
 
Ross Spur said:
As I see it, the only thing in favour of a strategy with wide stops is that you don't need to spend so much time staring at charts, so why stay up all night if you have no plans to close a losing trade and you know your position will be closed automatically at about -200pt?
Click to expand...

The thing I like about my strategy is that it makes profits (or has done so far). My 200 pip mind stop loss is exactly that, in my mind and I will be the one to activate it - I will not rely on some computer software or whatever. Also, If you saw my wife you would realise why I don't mind staying up during the nighy and sleeping during the day:LOL:
 
mobanded said:
The thing I like about my strategy is that it makes profits (or has done so far). My 200 pip mind stop loss is exactly that, in my mind and I will be the one to activate it - I will not rely on some computer software or whatever. Also, If you saw my wife you would realise why I don't mind staying up during the nighy and sleeping during the day:LOL:
Click to expand...

But if you have a £2k margin it'll be stopped automatically at -200pt unless it gaps? Your latest bet has come back from being about -180 to -40. Good time to close, I'd say.
 
Ross Spur said:
But if you have a £2k margin it'll be stopped automatically at -200pt unless it gaps? Your latest bet has come back from being about -180 to -40. Good time to close, I'd say.
Click to expand...

At the moment it is -18 and getting better (7.23 pm)
 
Ross Spur said:
You closed as soon as it hit your entry after being in the red for three days and 180pt down at one stage? Sorry, the logic completely escapes me.
Click to expand...

A few posts earlier you suggested I should close at a loss of 40 points and now, my logic escapes you when I get out at breakeven.

If you want reasons here they are - when the Dow hit moreorless my breakeven point, it allowed me to keep to my system rules of never closing a losing trade. Also it was close to the start of the last mad half hour of the trading day when anything could happen, and finally and most importantly I needed some beauty sleep.

Tomorrow is another start fresh day but I think today can be described as fruitful considering I fully recovered from an £1800 potential loss.

What about some credit for my system forecasting the direction of the Dow at 9.00 a.m. - Short at 10171 - the Dow closed below 1000 - nice profit for anyone who traded it.

Mobanded


 
mobanded said:

Tomorrow is another start fresh day but I think today can be described as fruitful considering I fully recovered from an £1800 potential loss.

What about some credit for my system forecasting the direction of the Dow at 9.00 a.m. - Short at 10171 - the Dow closed below 1000 - nice profit for anyone who traded it.

Mobanded
Click to expand...

I think this is something that you're not understanding. You had a loss of 1800. Whether you closed it at that level or not is irrelevant. You had a loss of 1800. You kept in the trade, and then price then went from almost blowing your account to breakeven. So you got breakeven out of that. By the way it wasn't a 'potential' loss of 1800, it was a potential blown account, for the potential profit of 0.

Now read again your last paragraph. You didn't trade that move that you successfuly called. You want some credit for that? Why? You didnt' trade it? In fact your system said not to trade it, yet the system deserves some credit? A move that could have been worth 1800 or so. Why not? Because you were married to a bad trade. Had you used a stop, you could have lost an amount much less than 1800 that day, and come back today and made 1800 and be well in profit for the 2 days. Instead you were breakeven, with a risk of blowing your account and a lot of stress as well.

There are two risks in not using a stop
1) You can blow your account.
2) Because you're in a trade and your capital is tied up, you miss a much better trade, for the sake of one that is already a loser.
 
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