spanish89...

on any spanish89 discussion threads would you like to -

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porph said:
ok, lucky and unskilled or lucky and skilled

vs

unlucky and skilled or unlucky and unskilled.

As I said, I'd rather be lucky ;)

:innocent:
Click to expand...

....But if you were 'skilled' you would spot potentially 'lucky' situations!

Steve.
 
new_trader said:
LOL..Luck is a term used by HUMAN BEINGS to describe events in which outcomes are determined by chance. So it doesn't really 'exist' as such. I don't agree with some of the analogies given, in particular driving. Do you rely on luck when driving from point A to point B or do you rely on skill derived from practice and experience? If you get safely from Point A to Point B whilst driving with a blindfold then yes, you were 'lucky' as well as completely reckless and mad. But how do you determine the probability of having an accident whilst driving with a blindfold? Well, you can't. Statistics won't work because what if everyone in your sample was lucky? You would conclude that the chances of having an accident whilst driving blindfolded is 0. Would you still drive blindfolded?

I don't think anyone is disputing the fact that you can be 'lucky' with trading, among other things in life, but it would be absolute folly to suggest or think that you can remain profitable with a trading strategy that relies on luck.

From what I saw, spanish89 entered so many trades in a day that he was likely to have a few wins here and there and confuse that with skill, which is the most dangerous thing to do.
Click to expand...

well i consider chance and luck the same thing so i guess we are on the same page?
 
In order to be profitable over time, you certainly will do well to have skill but there must be loads of monkeys in the City who are still there by pure luck. Why does this seem obvious to me?
 
Possibly, but it doesn't take too long before their "luck" outs and then they get chopped.
You need one helluva lot of monkeys and a very long time before one writes the complete works of Shakespeare.
 
I just drunkenky agreed to meet spanish this evening and even possibly take him with some guys from work. Will keep everyone posted and ensure he really exists.
 
Great debate about skill and luck.
For me, trading is an acquired knowledge and skill, tempered and improved with experience (not to mention all the psychological aspects) with a modicum of "luck" but mainly probability.
The element of "luck" decreases with experience but can never be completely irradicated.
The problem is when "luck" becomes the excuse for inexperience and a grossly deficient skill set - as with S89
Richard
 
so guys - if you are skillful are you lucky? or if you are lucky are you skillful?? Or does the luck come with the skill??
 
Mr. Charts - I would expand on that and say luck dictates the outcome of events beyond one's control (but not necessarily beyond anybody's control) - ie one person's luck is another person's skill/lack of skill.

For example, I crash my car into the back of somebody else's car - poor skill on my part, badluck for them.

The skill in trading is maximising the effect of the parameters within our control and minimising the effect of those outside. (IMO)
 
The skill in trading is ensuring luck doesn't play a part when you begin...

'Every battle is won before it is ever fought....' Sun-Tzu
 
porph said:
Mr. Charts - I would expand on that and say luck dictates the outcome of events beyond one's control (but not necessarily beyond anybody's control) - ie one person's luck is another person's skill/lack of skill.

For example, I crash my car into the back of somebody else's car - poor skill on my part, badluck for them.

The skill in trading is maximising the effect of the parameters within our control and minimising the effect of those outside. (IMO)
Click to expand...

World champion golfer Gary Player once famously said "It's funny - the more I practice the luckier I get"

I like your thoughts on the car accident. As you say, poor 'skills' on your part but that doesnt tell the whole story. As a 'skilled' driver (look at me blowing my own trumpet :cheesy:) I've lost count of the times I've avoided an accident which would have been the other drivers fault by using my own skills. Sometimes this is through second sight. Of course you cannot teach that - it is skill which is aquired.

I also consider that 'luck' is more of a concept than anything else. Because of this you could be 'lucky' and not actually experience any kind of 'lucky' perception or feeling. For example, say you had your £400,000 life savings in a bank which ALMOST went bust - if you found out (or knew at the time) that it almost went bust then you might say "that was lucky" but it is quite possible that the bank almost went bust but you never knew it either at the time or since... do you still perceive that you are lucky?

It's quite strange how 'luck' almost requires some kind of third party involvement to be real luck. If no one tells you "you're lucky" then the chances are you won't think it. On the other hand, if something bad happens, it is easy to think "I'm so unlucky" without the need for anyone else to be present.

Steve.
 
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