spanish89...

[new_trader]

But if the trade isn't sufficiently skilled then surely it becomes a loss. Then we have bad luck ?? Or do we have insufficent skill ?? In a zero sum game the odds are 50/50 are they not.

Absolutely NO! The odds of winning a trade are not 50/50 like in a fixed odds system. If only trading was that simple!

 

[Claudia123]

Absolutely NO! The odds of winning a trade are not 50/50 like in a fixed odds system. If only trading was that simple!

lol trading is as simple as you want to make it or as complicated. But on my screen market goes one of two ways. And thank you cable you went the right way this morning !! Now wait for thepull back then down down down......:clap:

 

[JRP2891]

Did Sun Tzu give good head?

Is that a reference to someone with the initials s.f?

 

[new_trader]

lol trading is as simple as you want to make it or as complicated. But on my screen market goes one of two ways. And thank you cable you went the right way this morning !! Now wait for thepull back then down down down......:clap:

LOL...everything in life is 50/50, either it will happen or it won't. Why wait for the pullback when there is a 50/50 chance you will make money whatever you do? Go long now!

 

[Claudia123]

LOL...everything in life is 50/50, either it will happen or it won't. Why wait for the pullback when there is a 50/50 chance you will make money whatever you do? Go long now!

Looks like my simple approach worked!!! But it would have been difficult not to makemoney on cable or swissy today

 

[new_trader]

But it would have been difficult not to makemoney on cable or swissy today

Then that isn't 50/50....

 

[Claudia123]

new_trader - go long on cable would be ok the trade will win at some point. Might need a huge stop though!! See 50/50 you can't lose if you are brave enough (and massively capitalised!!) Anyway i made my pips for the week.

Have a good day.

 

[new_trader]

new_trader - go long on cable would be ok the trade will win at some point. Might need a huge stop though!! See 50/50 you can't lose if you are brave enough (and massively capitalised!!) Anyway i made my pips for the week.

Have a good day.

This is appropriately posted in the spanish89 thread.

 

[Claudia123]

This is appropriately posted in the spanish89 thread.

lol - i have read the thread

 

[fifty2aces]

If I cut my finger off, I'll either bleed to death, or I won't. Two possible outcomes, therefore the odds of me dying must be 50/50, right?

 

[Claudia123]

If I cut my finger off, I'll either bleed to death, or I won't. Two possible outcomes, therefore the odds of me dying must be 50/50, right?

First we have to question why you want to cut your finger off.

 

[trendie]

If I cut my finger off, I'll either bleed to death, or I won't. Two possible outcomes, therefore the odds of me dying must be 50/50, right?

depends if the cut finger is the one you would use to dial 999.

 

[Claudia123]

depends if the cut finger is the one you would use to dial 999.

Then if ya dial 999 50/50 chance of a response

 

[Claudia123]

This is appropriately posted in the spanish89 thread.

Cable sat at around 1.4200 50/50 chance it will go up or maybe down. 1.4000 by end of week. I threw 10000 coins lol

 

[JRP2891]

Cable sat at around 1.4200 50/50 chance it will go up or maybe down. 1.4000 by end of week. I threw 10000 coins lol

Change the record

 

[shadowninja]

It isn't a 50% probability of going up or down. The markets are not random. They are incredibly complex but not random.

 

[Hoggums]

Taking the subject back to S89... Do we have any futex traders at this site? Surely his reputation preceeds him.... I love the fact he's applying under the experienced trader route!

 

[Skill Leverage]

He has been asking me about the interviews and for tips, seems like he's got his heart set on applying.

 

[zupcon]

It isn't a 50% probability of going up or down. The markets are not random. They are incredibly complex but not random.

This is just getting silly now, it IS RANDOM !

This is what you need to do, take 100 trades each and every day across a variety of timeframes and instruments for the next year, NO stop loss and NO targets. Leave em to run for 50, or a 100, or 200 bars in your chosen timeframe, then close em.

After youve collected a few hundred for each timeframe, determine the win / lose rate then come back and tell me it aint 50% (+/- an element of noise which will be a function of the square root of the number of trades in the sample)

The moment you start timing entries, or closing trades due to a stop are target is the time the probability deviates from 0.5. (The probability of course is a bit irrelevant) but in the absense of fiddling about, over a sufficient sample size the probability of an up or down move from a random entry in any selected timeframe is 50/50, and 5 minutes backtesting will confirm that... spending a couple of years actually watching price move in real time will confirm the same, albeit far more educational and useful

 

[arabianights]

It will only be 50/50 if you detrend it, otherwise it will be very close to 50/50, no?